Six Nations Rd 3, Super Rugby Week 1 + other rugby 23-25 Feb
- Brent Graham
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Guys a bit of banter is great but lets keep things respectful both to fellow posters but also to players and refs - criticize when warranted sure but lets not get personal.
A break square weekend for me with the Newsletter Best Bet - Get on my mailing list here under 46.5 in Durban squeaking in
Six Nations is back this weekend and here are the current handicaps
Ireland -22.5 v Wales
Scotland -3.5 v England
France -28.5 v Italy
There is no URC but Super Rugby starts on Friday - for some reason I can only find handicaps on 3 of the games (Saturday not Friday) but here are all the fixtures (edit I found them)
Chiefs -3.5 v Crusaders, points 53.5
Rebels +7.5 v Brumbies points 55.5
Force +12.5 v Hurricanes points 57.5
Blues -14.5 v Drua, points 61.5
Highlanders -10.5 v Pasifika, points 62.5
Reds -3.5 v Waratahs, points 55.5
Seriously considering a stand alone show for Super Rugby
Varsity Cup week 1 has its own thread
Have a good one!
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- Pablo
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Looking at squads Rebels looks closer to Brumbies, they added Tupou, Salakai-Lotto while Brumbies lost White and Samu (plus Alaalatoa injured). I think this will be tighter when lineups release.
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- TheAdmiral
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Im expecting the highlanders to improve this year. They went unbeaten in preseason and they’ve got Jamie Joseph back as head coach and made some shrewd signings in the off season. Meanwhile Moana have 20 new players and lost 2 of their most dangerous players in Levi Aumua and Tavatavanawai (who’s gone to the Highlanders).
Like the Reds to take the Tahs at home. In preseason the Reds thrashed the Tahs 32-7 and there have been reports of an unhappy Waratahs camp and there’s a lot of pressure on coach Adam Coleman who’s apparently been given until week 4 to turn things around.
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- R3V3R3NT_
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I was tempted by the Force +13.5 but missed it. Alternative would be to play overs on Force points but the temperature in Perth has me cautious. Ill be patient if it settles over 10 Ill likely play that. Other game that stood out was Chiefs / Crusaders. Saders already have a heap of injuries to deal with and look to be starting a 20year old rookie at 10. Chiefs -5.5 seems a no brainer and I also like Saders Under 23.5 I expect a strong Chiefs defense again this year and I think they hold the saders under 3 trys especially if they put the scoreboard pressure on early.
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- Brent Graham
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Link to follow
The Handicap will go ahead at 21h00 and will cover 6 Nations and also touch on Super Rugby
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- Kirky
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I can feel an upset coming at Racing, with SF getting the away win. I don't think Siya is a good fit yet.Pablo wrote: Rebels +8.5 ha @1.91 2u
Looking at squads Rebels looks closer to Brumbies, they added Tupou, Salakai-Lotto while Brumbies lost White and Samu (plus Alaalatoa injured). I think this will be tighter when lineups release.
What are your thoughts / connections saying ?
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- Pablo
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Kirky wrote:
I can feel an upset coming at Racing, with SF getting the away win. I don't think Siya is a good fit yet.Pablo wrote: Rebels +8.5 ha @1.91 2u
Looking at squads Rebels looks closer to Brumbies, they added Tupou, Salakai-Lotto while Brumbies lost White and Samu (plus Alaalatoa injured). I think this will be tighter when lineups release.
What are your thoughts / connections saying ?
I have the same feeling, SF +6.5 looks good but I don't think Racing will get thrashed at home two weeks in a row. I'd wait to take that line.
Another one I'm tracking is Mhr -8.5, they looked sharp in Paris last round. Bayonne may rotate as they face Lou at home next weekend, must win match.
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- Kirky
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Iv'e taken 3 units on the +6.5 and started nibbling at the win for SF.Pablo wrote:
Kirky wrote:
I can feel an upset coming at Racing, with SF getting the away win. I don't think Siya is a good fit yet.Pablo wrote: Rebels +8.5 ha @1.91 2u
Looking at squads Rebels looks closer to Brumbies, they added Tupou, Salakai-Lotto while Brumbies lost White and Samu (plus Alaalatoa injured). I think this will be tighter when lineups release.
What are your thoughts / connections saying ?
I have the same feeling, SF +6.5 looks good but I don't think Racing will get thrashed at home two weeks in a row. I'd wait to take that line.
Another one I'm tracking is Mhr -8.5, they looked sharp in Paris last round. Bayonne may rotate as they face Lou at home next weekend, must win match.
If the feeling I have grows, I could go pretty deep into them by match day.
Agree about Montpellier. I've taken them for a W and at alternative h/c -2.5. Both in multis.
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- Pablo
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Kirky wrote:
Iv'e taken 3 units on the +6.5 and started nibbling at the win for SF.Pablo wrote:
Kirky wrote:
I can feel an upset coming at Racing, with SF getting the away win. I don't think Siya is a good fit yet.Pablo wrote: Rebels +8.5 ha @1.91 2u
Looking at squads Rebels looks closer to Brumbies, they added Tupou, Salakai-Lotto while Brumbies lost White and Samu (plus Alaalatoa injured). I think this will be tighter when lineups release.
What are your thoughts / connections saying ?
I have the same feeling, SF +6.5 looks good but I don't think Racing will get thrashed at home two weeks in a row. I'd wait to take that line.
Another one I'm tracking is Mhr -8.5, they looked sharp in Paris last round. Bayonne may rotate as they face Lou at home next weekend, must win match.
If the feeling I have grows, I could go pretty deep into them by match day.
Agree about Montpellier. I've taken them for a W and at alternative h/c -2.5. Both in multis.
It looks like France will go strong against Italy so Laclayat (injured), Woki, Le Garrec and Fickou wont be released. Maybe Gibert will be retained so no feature against SF.
I took SF +7 ha @1.82 2u in ps3838 happily.
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- Pablo
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Vannes -13.5 ha @1.90 2u (its for 3u but I cannot due to limits). My french people told me Beziers will make big rotation for this match (Fernandes, Zabala, Madigan, Nkinsi, Ancely, Van Bost, Hoarau, Koen, Marques, Malie, Tupuola, Espeut, Lorre, Storti out) the whole starting 15. They will start with Nanai Williams at 10.
Bad run of results recently for me in Pro D2 but with this info I have to take it. Looks like weather will be ok for the match, some rain before so Vannes should win by 3-4 tries.
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- Kirky
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I've been doing not too bad on D2 recently. What I do is just take all the favorite teams, usually the home team, to win in a multi which usually comes to about the 12. or maybe 13. I put 2 units on that, finished.Pablo wrote: Shit, here we go again ...
Bad run of results recently for me in Pro D2 but with this info I have to take it. Looks like weather will be ok for the match, some rain before so Vannes should win by 3-4 tries.
Then I try to find the upset/s, lets say or when the favorite is reliably going to beat his h/c, and I'll take the same bet with the h/cap for that team. In this case for odds are over 20, then I forget about it until Friday morning. If I get 20'ish, then I'll put 3 units. It's very nice to catch these
Its been a good strategy for me with D2,
And similarly has the Top 14 been good to me,but here I put a bit more research because I play Superbru.in this league.
This is why I place so much value on your inputs Bud
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- Brent Graham
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In this weeks show I will be joined by The Crowe Tips and The Mossman
We will still touch on Super Rugby on THE HANDICAP (21h00 Thursday) but this show will allow us to get some Aussie and New Zealand guests in - good news is teams will have been selected
Click here to set a reminder for tomorrow and work is no excuse to miss it, just put the headphones on and look busy!
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- Pablo
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Kirky wrote:
Its been a good strategy for me with D2,
And similarly has the Top 14 been good to me,but here I put a bit more research because I play Superbru.in this league.
This is why I place so much value on your inputs Bud
Yeah, in Pro D2 home advantage is vital. Not now but few years back wasn´t common to see away wins, now there´re teams that performs also away from home. For me good strategy is take the 2-3 best home team wins dnb and combine at around @2. Other long term strategy: every home team dnb above @2 is compulsory to bet even if they are shit. Even if they have loads of injuries. For example Angouleme dnb @2 this week is for 2u, always is always.
Btw, Beziers rotated as expected and Vannes goes almost full strength (no Duplenne and Pedemonte big absences but strong compo). They "should" win easily against a depleted team, Vannes -14.5 still available.
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- Brad Breath
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Superior pack, including the bench.
Should be closer to a choice game in my view.
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- Kirky
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I know that this a complete gamble, maybe, but I've put 3 units on each of Cam Roigard for anytime try scorer @ 3.40 and as last try-scorer @ 26.00
So glad Super rugby is back
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- southpaw
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Chiefs Saders - both teams over 7.5 1st half pts
Rebels Brumbies - both teams over 8.5 1st half pts
Force Hurricanes - both teams over 8.5 1st half points
treble @ 9.5/1
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- Brent Graham
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- Brent Graham
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- Pablo
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I´m done with Pro D2 this season, I cannot understand this results.
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- Laraxwell
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Pablo wrote: Vannes started at -11.5 and ended at -18.5 and its 0-14 down at the 30th minute. Against a second string.
I´m done with Pro D2 this season, I cannot understand this results.
Don't worry Pablo
I had a word with the Vannes team at Half Time
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- Brent Graham
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- Kirky
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Ha Ha Ha Ha ROTFLLaraxwell wrote:
Pablo wrote: Vannes started at -11.5 and ended at -18.5 and its 0-14 down at the 30th minute. Against a second string.
I´m done with Pro D2 this season, I cannot understand this results.
Don't worry Pablo
I had a word with the Vannes team at Half Time
The perfect result to kick off our weekend.
Nice shout Pablo
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- Brent Graham
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- Brad Breath
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Brad Breath wrote: 1st Super rugby bet for me, Crusaders +5.5 @ 1.91
Cashed this out and got +7.5
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- Jameson
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- Pablo
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Looks like weather will be ludicrous in Dax during the whole day so u40.5 @1.80 2u is the bet there in the Dax-Aurillac. Both low scoring teams and Aurillac going strong so I expect an arm wrestler unders match under this conditions.
Other line that looks good is Colomiers -8.5 because BOP rotates for this match and send a mixed team. Colo dnb around @1.25 as banker is ok and MDM dnb @1.25 ok as well.
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- Brent Graham
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- Chiefie
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Brent Graham wrote: Rebels on the board at 19/20 - small bets these 1st 2 games but going to come out firing in Force game
What we thinking Brent on the force game?
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- Brent Graham
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I have not looked at conditions yet though
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- Chiefie
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Missing kicks directly in front, knock ons in perfect conditions.
Can see administration being fast tracked.
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- Chiefie
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Chiefie wrote: Jeez this rebels team is average.
Missing kicks directly in front, knock ons in perfect conditions.
Can see administration being fast tracked.
Had first half points brumbies 11.5+ and rebels over 7.5 and they end up with 3.
Good times.
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- Laraxwell
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Brent Graham wrote: Chiefie I am thinking Highlanders handicap or points
I have not looked at conditions yet though
Looks like a day for the beach
UV index very high @ 12
Expect a high scoring 2nd half in these conditions so maybe points in play for me
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- Brent Graham
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Rebels looking uncoached and just hope they can somehow sneak the handicap
Scotland v England Preview
Small interest England +4.5 at 9/10
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- southpaw
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Force Canes over 56.5 @ 17/20
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- coil
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Hot n Perth but humidity is low , Damon Murphy the ref .... don't like this game either but think the Canes could battle here so on the Farce plus 10.5
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- Mondo86
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Roigard ATS @ 3.75
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- Brent Graham
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- Chiefie
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I'd genuinely be surprised if they score more than 3 points in this first half.
Cant be backing points on these aussie teams, they're a liability.
And coupled with Damon Murphy, Angus Gardener and Nic Berry, you're on a hiding to nothing.
All aussie games in future, have to back unders on the aussie team points.
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- Chiefie
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coil wrote: Spot on Chiefie , the Farce offer nothing , they have no ball runners , no game breakers and so far Potter is a complete waste of time and a poor signing .
3 points for the rebels in the first half.
0 points for the force in the first half.
Can see why Aussie rugby is in decline.
Had enough of this garbage, sticking to NRL, much more enjoyable watch.
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- coil
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Ah man I just have to add this , they interview the Farce's coach , he reckons they just need a little more possession .... LOL . How much do they want ? They're blady useless with it anyways. How thick are some of these people.
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southpaw wrote: Bloody hell my nerves. That conversion at end a huge swing, it literally meant nothing to Canes, nothing to Cameron, he starts his approach from row 1 of stands. And nails it down the middle. Friday rugby curse lifted!
You know if it was Jordie Barrett it would end up in the car park.
Managed to salvage some hemorrhaging on the aussie buggers this morning in the final game.
But I think first half unders on Aussie teams is the way to go - especially against Kiwi opp.
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- Brent Graham
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coil wrote: Now they are talking such crap at half time , as if the Farce are a proper team . One off runners , not clearing out the Canes at all , Australian rugby continues it's decline , it's really becoming a second tier nation it appears.
Ah man I just have to add this , they interview the Farce's coach , he reckons they just need a little more possession .... LOL . How much do they want ? They're blady useless with it anyways. How thick are some of these people.
This one had me chuckling Coil - I couldn't believe the one presenter at half time talking as though they were on the verge of getting back in the match
Also the Canes 9 had a solid debut but when he kicks the ball out on full in 2nd half comm says thats the 1st foot he has put wrong - he had literally kicked it out on the full earlier
Canes points arrives thank goodness
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- The Vann
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Brent Graham wrote:
coil wrote: Now they are talking such crap at half time , as if the Farce are a proper team . One off runners , not clearing out the Canes at all , Australian rugby continues it's decline , it's really becoming a second tier nation it appears.
Ah man I just have to add this , they interview the Farce's coach , he reckons they just need a little more possession .... LOL . How much do they want ? They're blady useless with it anyways. How thick are some of these people.
This one had me chuckling Coil - I couldn't believe the one presenter at half time talking as though they were on the verge of getting back in the match
Also the Canes 9 had a solid debut but when he kicks the ball out on full in 2nd half comm says thats the 1st foot he has put wrong - he had literally kicked it out on the full earlier
Canes points arrives thank goodness
Have to get the Canes 9 name right here guys. Mans father and grand father were springboks in that No9 jersey - both Joggie Viljoen. Probably where the Jordi comes from. Saw his grand father live on several occasions at the base of the Griquas scrum - a fine player.
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