All Football Tips w/c 1st April

Lazy acca, one goal out Sat, try again -

Over 1.5 goals
The 19 championship and league 1 games @ 3pm kick off.

@ 125/1

EFL Championship Monday Night

Ipswich DNB - 9/10
Leeds/Hull BTTS - 9/10

A-League

Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City

Bet 1: CC Mariners -0.25 @1.95
Bet 2: TT – Mariners over 1.5 @1.83
Bet 3: Bet builder – Mariners or draw + over 1.5 goals + over 6.5 corners + over 1.5 cards @1.80

Nice job with the A-League game Quill, cleaned up nicely

EPL Tuesday Night

Wolves over 1.5 offsides into Bournemouth over 4.5 corners - 9/10 (Sunbet)

Lucas Paqueta (West Ham) over 1.5 shots - 0.91/1 (Sunbet)

Wolves have no attacking output and no threat going forward atm with Hwang, Cunha and Neto all unavailable. Burnley are not great at all and will get relegated but they have been scoring lately and I think they could outscore Wolves tonight.

Burnley DNB - 17/20

West Ham v Tottenham

Not had a decent bet on Spurs for a while. No data to back it up, but fancy goals as can see an end to end game.

Over 3.5 goals @ 10/11

A-League

Perth Glory vs Sydney FC

Perth's coach, Alan Stajcic, said that this match against Sydney FC will be the most difficult challenge they've had all season.

Sydney are in good form, with 34 points in their last 20 games.

Perth have now had 5 games without a win. Last time out they lost 1-2 away to Melbourne Victory, thus collecting only 2 points in their last 5 matches, the least of all teams in the league.

Sydney has scored the most goals, 41 in 22 games, while Glory are on 39, but with a leaky defence, second from bottom.

With only 5 wins this season, Perth are only 2 points above the bottom place. There is no relegation this season, but whoever finishes bottom will have go go via a play-off into the FA Cup.

Sydney beat the Mariners 2-0 four days ago. The Mariners are the current champions and are sitting 2nd. Sydney controlled the game completely, limiting the champions to one single shot on target the whole game.

Sydney had a poor start to this season, with 3 defeats after 3 rounds. That led to changing their coach, and since Ufuk Talay took over, Sydney's game improved a lot. they also have quality players, and the results started to come their way.

Now Sydney are 5th, 4 points behind the 3rd spot and with this game in hand.
Sydney are targeting the 2nd spot, currently 9 points ahead. So with a win here, Sydney would close the gap to only 6 points with 4 rounds to go from the regular season.

Glory played only 3 days ago, so they had one day less to recover and prepare, which made their coach state that this match will be that much harder, due to this reason.

Therefore Sydney have also this advantage, besides the quality of their team, plus that Glory had to flight out of Melbourne immediately after the match, without recovering after the game.

Perth Glory conceded at least 2 goals in 18 of the 22 matches so far this season.

Sydney scored at least 2 goals in 12 of their last 20 matches.

In their last 10 games, Sydney lost only once.

The guests are clearly in great form, they are strongly motivated, as the higher they finish in the regular season, the more advantages they will have in the play-offs, including fewer games and home games, and overall they have shown that they are the better team than Perth Glory.

Bet 1: Sydney @1.72
Bet 2: Bet builder – Sydney or draw + over 1.5 goals + over 8.5 corners @1.80

EPL Wednesday Night

Going smaller stakes than usual for tonights bets.

Luton over 2.5 corners - 12/10
Draw/Man City (HT/FT bet) - 38/10

Boylesports have Man City shots line over 16.5 @ 8/10.

This looks very decent to me. They know they need the win, the longer Villa can hold them the better. Also back of mind the pathetic 2 shots in reverse fixture. Sides like W Ham and Luton have had 13/14 shots at home to Villa, i think City are a solid bet here in this market.

Arsenal vs Luton

Luton are missing players in midfield and defence.
Arsenal needs goal difference.

Bet: Arsenal -2.5 @2.03

Man City vs Villa

City -1.5 @1.70

Good calls tonight Chris, South and Quill

EPL Thursday Night

Sheffield United to score vs Liverpool - 11/10
Chelsea/Man Utd over 13.5 corners - 35/10

I think if Burnley could snatch a draw here it is not beyond ManU to get the same. I expect Chelsea to make the running in the match

Chelsea v Man Utd

Chelsea over 16.5 shots @ 17/20

Bet builder
BTTS - Y/Over 11.5 corners/Over 3.5 cards @ 11/4

and taking the draw with

Match goals over 3.5 at Anfield into Chelsea draw @ 11/2

This United Chelsea game has been exactly like the earlier one in December. Non existent midfields, so end to end basketball type game. 30+ shots, plenty of goals and corners.

United lost 3-0 to Bournemouth in the game straight after the Chelsea one in December. This end to end style game is taking so much out of their players and now just 3 days later they play Liverpool. Keep an eye on all Liverpool markets come Sunday, goals corners and shots are all good options.

Liverpool win and Liverpool over 1.5 goals @ 8/11

Solid strike for me on this. Agree with naidoo, united ripe for the taking.

EPL Sunday
Man United vs Liverpool

Thanks South and I think your bet is the right way to go for the game. However, I am taking a different approach, more bigger odds with lower stakes.

Over the past month I have been sharing total match corner bets from United games, and instead of taking the 9/10 options, I went aggressive and took the 25/10 and higher odds. These have been very profitable but unfortunately it seems that the bookies have woken up to the fact that United are just playing basketball atm, no tactics, no legs, just end to end football.

I can't get over just how bad United underlying stats are, in 2024 alone they are shipping 10 corners per game and over 220 shots in total for the year. Thats madness honestly and Ten Hag is surely on borrowed time.

Somehow United are getting away with this thanks to some crazy goals and alot of luck. Based on them having only a couple of fit CBs and virtually no legs in midfield, I think before the end of the season, someone whether its Liverpool or another team, smashes United convincingly.

Liverpool are firing on all cylinders now, but they still seem to only play one half of football. Most games it's like they need a cracker from Klopp at HT to wake up and win in the second half. I am hoping that this Sunday they finally can put together a 90 minute dominant performance.

So based on United shambolic underlying stats, I am taking the bookies on with some bigger price bets. Remember, this United team are shattered physically especially after that crazy game on Thursday night, should they concede a couple early on, their heads drop and things could get really ugly fast. Unlike the 5-0 and 7-0 wins previously, this time Liverpool are chasing GD, so Klopp wont drop of the intensity like previously.

United/Liverpool over 13.5 corners - 25/10
Liverpool over 4.5 goals - 8/1

Thanks naidoo great thoughts.

I like those 2 although prefer the goals vs corners as corners a marker I’ve never had much joy with.

Will join on the Liverpool goals - over 4.5 @ 9/1 with Paddy Power.

Soccer Saturday

EPL
Man City & Arsenal Win Double - 12/10
Luton over 6.5 corners - 18/10
Everton over 2.5 offsides - 9/10

EFL Championship
BTTS Double in the Norwich/Ipswich & Coventry/Leeds Games - 14/10

Btts yes @ 30/1 at -

Coventry
Forest green
Blackburn
Bristol rovers
Accrington
Watford
Wigan

Man Utd vs Liverpool

Manchester United give up 20 shots just like that these days and Erik Ten Hag is not willing to change his philosophies because they are getting results. Because Manchester United don't have their back line come up and aid in the press, once the first line of the pressure is beaten, the opponent has heaps of space to run at their back line in transition, which is what happened in the previous meeting against Liverpool.

Over their last five matches, Manchester United are giving up an average of 26.4 shots per match and now here comes Liverpool, whom we all bet for shots almost by default (Liverpool over on shots is like a Southpaw TM).

Bet builder: Liverpool or draw + Liverpool over 1.5 goals + Liverpool over 18.5 shots @1.95

Man Utd v Liverpool
I have learnt over the years that this match very seldom results in complete one-way traffic so I will leave the goal speculation alone(Except for my beers). Possession and attacking threat in the area should comfortably favour Liverpool with Man Utd playing mostly on the break. This makes me fancy this market

Corner match bet
Liverpool -2.5 @ 9/10

Sheff Utd v Chelsea

Both halves over 1.5 goals @ 9/4

Spurs v Notts Forest

Second half Spurs goals over 1.5 @ 5/4

and the days beers

Over 2.5 match goals by Liverpool/Chelsea/Spurs @ 17/2

Thanks Vann, Quill and South for the bets for the big game today. As a Liverpool fan, at times its hard to be objective regarding this game, but that corner bet is as close to a banker as they can come Vann.

EPL Sunday
As posted already I am on Over 13.5 corners in United/Liverpool - 25/10
Liverpool over 4.5 goals - 8/1
Now adding a Sheff U/Chelsea & Spurs/Forest BTTS Double for the two late games which overlap - 18/10

Goodluck with the bets today everyone.

Sheffield over 0.5 goals + Nottingham (+2.5)
Double @1.87

AEK Athens vs PAOK

This year AEK Athens celebrates their 100th anniversary (1924-2024).
I heard that they are pushed and helped by referees to win the championship for this reason.

Bet: AEK @1.80

Tottenham v Notts Forest

The last few months has shown why I've pulled back a bit from betting on Spurs games. They play exactly the same every game without changing tactics. Sometimes it can be devastating, sometimes it can be completely ineffective. I think it might work out ok against Forest's style of play, so an almost reluctant punt on:

Son anytime + Spurs win @ 6/5
Son 2 or more goals @ 9/2 ( small )