Investec Champions & Challenge Cup Quarters, Super Rugby Rd 8 12-14 March

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3 weeks 1 day ago #1 by Brent Graham
This past weekend was a good one with Super Rugby and Champions Cup turning healthy profits.

The Newsletter Best Bet La Rochelle win at 8/10 scraped in thanks to a last minute missed conversion from The Stormers and the 4 leg acca landed at 11/1 - if you haven't joined me in the battle against the bookies then click here to get my weekly mail

This weekend we have another 4 Super Rugby games and here are my projected handicaps

Pasifika +19.5 v Reds (playing in Whangārei at Semenoff Stadium, Northern New Zealand)
Waratahs +11.5 v Crusaders
Hurricanes -1.5 v Chiefs
Rebels +4.5 v Highlanders

We are into the Champions Cup quarter-finals - here are my projected caps

Bordeaux -22.5 v Harlequins
Leinster -9.5 v La Rochelle
Northampton -6.5 v Bulls
Toulouse -17.5 v Exeter

I have a feeling some of my caps could be well out this week and there may be some early decisions to be made

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3 weeks 1 day ago #2 by Pablo
I posted again here, Northampton dnb @2 2u

And I´m leaning all home teams.
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3 weeks 20 hours ago #3 by Quill
Bet365 has come out with the lines:

Bordeaux -15.5 v Harlequins
Leinster -7.5 v La Rochelle
Northampton -2.5 v Bulls
Toulouse -21.5 v Exeter
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3 weeks 20 hours ago #4 by TheAdmiral
Super Rugby caps from TABNZ:
Moana +13.5 v Reds
Waratahs +12.5 v Crusaders
Hurricanes +1.5 v Chiefs
Rebels +4.5 v Highlanders

Waratahs + my early fancy

Also took Northampton win @ 1.9 and Bordeaux -13

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3 weeks 14 hours ago #5 by Pablo
I have the opposite thought than you Admiral, I took Crusaders -10.5 @1.91 2u

Blackadder ready to play and Lío Willie look as well to be back, while Tahs lost Bell, masive blow.

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3 weeks 14 hours ago #6 by Pablo
I have the opposite thought than you Admiral, I took Crusaders -10.5 @1.91 2u

Blackadder ready to play and Lío Willie look as well to be back, while Tahs lost Bell, masive blow.

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3 weeks 12 hours ago #7 by Brad Breath
Hurricanes +1.5 for me, expected it to be scratch

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3 weeks 12 hours ago #8 by Brent Graham
Here are comparisons of early prices with my projected lines

Pasifika +19.5 (+14.5) v Reds - 5 point difference but will wait for Reds team, I was prob too high
Waratahs +11.5 (+11.5) v Crusaders
Hurricanes -1.5 (+1.5) v Chiefs 3 points diff - I think money comes for Canes and they start -1.5
Rebels +4.5 (+4.5) v Highlanders


Bordeaux -22.5 (-14.5) v Harlequins 8 points, I think money come for Bordeaux and line starts closer to 18.5
Leinster -9.5 (-6.5) v La Rochelle - 3 pts - I am leaning quite strongly to Leinster here, Lar Rochelle travelling back from SA where they were not that impressive
Northampton -6.5 (-2.5) v Bulls 4 pts - I think this line moves and start closer to mine
Toulouse -17.5 (-21.5) v Exeter 4 pts, I think my cap was wrong and won't be taking the plus

Taking a 5/1 treble for a unit

Bordeaux -14.5
Leinster -6.5
Northampton win 15/20

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2 weeks 6 days ago #9 by Brent Graham
Very little betting movement in either comp although I am expecting Bordeaux money to come in at some point

here are the Challenge Cup Quarter Final handicaps - now that we are at the business end of the comp we get early prices and they will certainly warrant a closer look

Gloucester -6.5 v Ospreys
Sharks -8.5 v Edinburgh
Clermont -6.5 v Ulster
Benetton -2.5 v Connacht

Must say I am really warming to Leinster in the Champions Cup but not sure there is any need to rush in with the cap stable

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2 weeks 6 days ago #10 by Laraxwell
Must say I am really warming to Leinster in the Champions Cup but not sure there is any need to rush in with the cap stable

I dunno, that Leinster jersey might be getting the better of you, Brent.
Ronan O Gara has brought his La Rochelle team to Cork for the week - his homestead. He'll have them primed and riled for Leinster match.

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2 weeks 6 days ago #11 by Brent Graham
I hear you and it should be a great match.

I just have a feeling La Rochelle are a notch below what they were last year.

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2 weeks 5 days ago #12 by southpaw
cannot have the Tahs this week. Look tired, need a rest, Saders rested and confidence back. I like Saders -10 but looking at Saders pts over 33.5.
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2 weeks 4 days ago - 2 weeks 4 days ago #13 by Kirky

southpaw wrote: cannot have the Tahs this week. Look tired, need a rest, Saders rested and confidence back. I like Saders -10 but looking at Saders pts over 33.5.

Oh dear 'o dear.
That -10.5 looks like an invitation specially meant for me saying - 'come get your free money here Kirky, take as much as you want...'

The death of me. The Super Rugby gimme :dry: :pinch:
Ah well, nothing else for it.....

I can resist anything except temptation :unsure:
I guess I'm all-in on the -10.5 for 5u. And I'm on -15.5 for 5u too.

Just gotta wait for pay-pay now :woohoo: :woohoo: LOL
Last edit: 2 weeks 4 days ago by Kirky.

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2 weeks 4 days ago #14 by Jameson
The alam bells ringing out when Goodforthegame spots a dead cert lol
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2 weeks 4 days ago - 2 weeks 4 days ago #15 by Kirky

Jameson wrote: The alam bells ringing out when Goodforthegame spots a dead cert lol

Yeah, ohh how the dead cert has hurt me badly in the past.
But, as you've said before 'here we go again like lambs to the slaughter'.

I also wanna see if Oracle gives it the nod for 'grannies pension' tonight :whistle: :P

I swear if the Saders don't come to this party (and I'm seeing by 28), I'll absolutely loose my shit :woohoo:
Last edit: 2 weeks 4 days ago by Kirky.

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2 weeks 4 days ago #16 by southpaw
Crusaders over 32.5 pts @ 5/6

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2 weeks 4 days ago #17 by southpaw
Saints -3.5 @ 17/20 (Hollywoodbets)

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2 weeks 4 days ago #18 by Pablo

Pablo wrote: I posted again here, Northampton dnb @2 2u

And I´m leaning all home teams.


Northampton changed from -3.5 to -7.5 in a matter of minutes. Anyone knows why?

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2 weeks 4 days ago #19 by Brent Graham
Bulls are resting a number of star players

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2 weeks 4 days ago #20 by Brad Breath

Pablo wrote:

Pablo wrote: I posted again here, Northampton dnb @2 2u

And I´m leaning all home teams.


Northampton changed from -3.5 to -7.5 in a matter of minutes. Anyone knows why?


Yes mate, all their Boks didn't travel.

I got some Saints ML 1.91 and then on above news some -3.5

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2 weeks 4 days ago #21 by Pablo

Brad Breath wrote:

Pablo wrote:

Pablo wrote: I posted again here, Northampton dnb @2 2u

And I´m leaning all home teams.


Northampton changed from -3.5 to -7.5 in a matter of minutes. Anyone knows why?


Yes mate, all their Boks didn't travel.

I got some Saints ML 1.91 and then on above news some -3.5


Thanks for the info, mates.

I see nothing but a big home win now, Northampton is unplayable at home this season. I was in the Northampton dnb 2u and I add another 2u in the -8.5.

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2 weeks 4 days ago #22 by southpaw
For once was online when a betting affecting news alert broke and that’s why I took the -3.5 rapido. Still keep thinking is it a big pile of mind games and they name a full strength side!

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2 weeks 4 days ago #23 by Brent Graham
And the million dollar question is..... will Oracle have picked up on the Bulls team news and will he event care? I am predicting he goes Bulls for the win

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2 weeks 4 days ago #24 by Brent Graham
Really enjoyed the show tonight and Oracle somehow broke his own record for an introduction.

I will be posting my plays in this article

Friday morning

Reds -14.5
Crusaders -9.5

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2 weeks 3 days ago #25 by Jameson
I've gone over 54.5 in live play in the Reds game. 3-0 after 25mins HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

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2 weeks 3 days ago #26 by Pablo
MDM -11.5 ha @1.90 2u

Big rotation Biarritz and MDM going full strength plus emotive day for MDM
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2 weeks 3 days ago #27 by southpaw
hmm wasn't expecting this from Tahs, somehow showing some fight. I'm only on Saders pts overs mix of 32.5 and 31.5, so need a big 2nd half from them.

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2 weeks 3 days ago #28 by Brent Graham
Wow just seen results - 2 huge upsets and pleased I couldn't watch and kept involvement small although would probably have been on overs in Waratahs game

Nice call Saders overs there South

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2 weeks 3 days ago #29 by Kirky

Kirky wrote:
Yeah, ohh how the dead cert has hurt me in the past.
But, as you've said before 'here we go again like lambs to the slaughter'.

I also wanna see if Oracle gives it the nod for 'grannies pension' tonight :whistle:

I swear if the Saders don't come to this party (and I'm seeing by 28), I'll absolutely loose my shit :woohoo:

So I was into both the Saders and the Reds - dead certs both, for quite a few bob in all kinds of combos :S
Well neither of them disappointed me, I didn't watch the games and got back this afternoon expecting to see a pair of walkovers and my balances up somewhat. Nope.

So, I've lost my shit for a bit, wasn't too surprised tbf, and like a pro I've dived back in - chasing :unsure:
If not for the fact that I've had a few good weeks, and my accounts are looking quite good, I would definitely be crying now. :)

But I'm going to pop open my first weekend beer, since last night, and I bid you all cheers, and good luck :beer :beer :beer

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2 weeks 3 days ago #30 by ProveMeWrong

Pablo wrote: MDM -11.5 ha @1.90 2u

Big rotation Biarritz and MDM going full strength plus emotive day for MDM


Pablo you beauty!! So solid as usual
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2 weeks 3 days ago #31 by Pablo

ProveMeWrong wrote:

Pablo wrote: MDM -11.5 ha @1.90 2u

Big rotation Biarritz and MDM going full strength plus emotive day for MDM


Pablo you beauty!! So solid as usual


Thanks mate!

Unlucky I was unable to post Vannes and Beziers team overs because bet365 didnt open market for first time in the season ...
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2 weeks 2 days ago #32 by Kirky

Pablo wrote:

ProveMeWrong wrote:

Pablo wrote: MDM -11.5 ha @1.90 2u

Big rotation Biarritz and MDM going full strength plus emotive day for MDM


Pablo you beauty!! So solid as usual


Thanks mate!

Unlucky I was unable to post Vannes and Beziers team overs because bet365 didnt open market for first time in the season ...

Great calls Pablo, spot-on as usual.

For me, Agen loss (88% chance for the win) meant another 4 accas down the crapper. Not a single W, and a small fortune gone.

This weekend could of / should have been so different :pinch: :sick:

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2 weeks 2 days ago #33 by Roger Rabbit
Canes V chiefs
Chiefs over 23.5 points

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2 weeks 2 days ago #34 by Roger Rabbit

Roger Rabbit wrote: Canes V chiefs
Chiefs over 23.5 points

Has moved to 22.5 @ 9/10 and have taken some more

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2 weeks 2 days ago - 2 weeks 2 days ago #35 by Brad Breath

Brad Breath wrote: Hurricanes +1.5 for me, expected it to be scratch


Cashed this out and took +2.5 when line drifted early in the week

My sister in Wellington says it's been pissing down for most of the day, but stopped now.
Would still lean overs tbh.
Last edit: 2 weeks 2 days ago by Brad Breath. Reason: Spelling mistake

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2 weeks 2 days ago #36 by Pablo

Kirky wrote:

Pablo wrote:

ProveMeWrong wrote:

Pablo wrote: MDM -11.5 ha @1.90 2u

Big rotation Biarritz and MDM going full strength plus emotive day for MDM


Pablo you beauty!! So solid as usual


Thanks mate!

Unlucky I was unable to post Vannes and Beziers team overs because bet365 didnt open market for first time in the season ...

Great calls Pablo, spot-on as usual.

For me, Agen loss (88% chance for the win) meant another 4 accas down the crapper. Not a single W, and a small fortune gone.

This weekend could of / should have been so different :pinch: :sick:


Thanks mate!

I had the same problem with Agen, and for me even worse because I did Angouleme +13 so no need to back Agen in a multi ...
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2 weeks 2 days ago #37 by southpaw
Late call overs in Wellington 48.5 @ 17/20

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2 weeks 2 days ago #38 by Brent Graham
Joined over 48.5

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2 weeks 2 days ago #39 by Roger Rabbit

southpaw wrote: Late call overs in Wellington 48.5 @ 17/20

Easy as you like Gentleman, Well played:beer

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2 weeks 2 days ago #40 by Pablo
Just for the LOL

Highlanders dnb @6 0.5u

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2 weeks 2 days ago #41 by southpaw

Roger Rabbit wrote:

southpaw wrote: Late call overs in Wellington 48.5 @ 17/20

Easy as you like Gentleman, Well played:beer


Cheers RR.

Sharks game at same line so tempting but feels a trap.

Going to limit my interest -

Last try Williams @ 12/1
1st/2nd try bongi/DVDM @ 100/1, highly speculative!

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2 weeks 2 days ago #42 by Roger Rabbit
Edinburgh over 17.5 with sunbet

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2 weeks 2 days ago #43 by southpaw
Nicely done RR!

I hesitated on sharks edi overs and should have stuck to gut, which was that this weekend a lot of games primed for overs.

It’s superb conditions in France, despite high line I’m sucked in -

Over 59.5 pts @ 5/6 UBB HAR

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2 weeks 2 days ago #44 by shaft
Bulls first try scorer Akker van der Merwe @ 7/1

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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2 weeks 2 days ago - 2 weeks 2 days ago #45 by Jameson
Bulls +13 @ 11/10 anybody??
Last edit: 2 weeks 2 days ago by Jameson.

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2 weeks 2 days ago #46 by coil
Some nice calls today lads , I'm behind sadly , the Quins game caught me with me trousers down ! I'm going to give the Bulls a chance here and have taken the plus 14.5 at 10/11. Sometimes these second string sides produce the goods !!

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2 weeks 2 days ago #47 by Risktaker
I'm not sure about the Saints -13,5. What do you guys think?

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2 weeks 2 days ago #48 by Brent Graham
-13.5 is getting big but I think the Saints will win by 20+

Great win Leinster for the Newsletter - Acca gone missing thanks to Bordeaux

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2 weeks 2 days ago #49 by Jameson
I'm happy I went overs! 31 points in 19 mins!!

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2 weeks 2 days ago #50 by southpaw
Absolute bookie battering on the Northampton minus 3.5, 9.5, 13.5, whatever was taken. Pay the punters.
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