Super Rugby Week 9, URC Week 15, Gallagher Week 16 + other rugby 26-28 April

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1 week 4 days ago #1 by Brent Graham
This past weekend was one to forget for me and my only saving grace is that I would have lost more had I been at home watching the games instead of in Durban taking a break.

On to the new week we go with a clean slate

Here are my Super Rugby handicap projections - some tricky ones to cap

Crusaders -14.5 v Rebels
Waratahs +10.5 v Chiefs
Drua -9.5 v Moana
Brumbies +7.5 v Hurricanes
Highlanders -7.5 v Force
Reds +7.5 v Blues

Here are my URC caps assuming teams of similar strength are put out this week

Ulster -4.5 v Benetton
Scarlets +2.5 v Sharks
Zebre +14.5 v Warriors
Bulls -16.5 v Ospreys
Cardiff +6.5 v Edinburgh
Lions -3.5 v Munster
Stormers -16.5 v leinster
Dragons +9.5 v Connacht

There is also Gallagher Premiership action

Look forward to your thoughts

BG

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1 week 4 days ago - 1 week 4 days ago #2 by Pablo
I took Brumbies +8.5 ha @1.91 2u

They're trolling me this season but I don't expect another shitshow like last round.

Reds +9.5 also catched my eye.
Last edit: 1 week 4 days ago by Pablo.

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1 week 3 days ago #3 by wslark1
Some leans for me.

Looks to be slightly drizzly this weekend around the UK.

Bath +4
Bristol +6
Cardiff +3 (if you can still get it)
Dragons +8

If any of the .5 options open up when 365 open the 2-way market. Plus those in instead, +8.5 for dragons etc.

Will see how the weather looks later in the week. These aren't just based on the weather, think they're wide generally.

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1 week 3 days ago #4 by Brent Graham
Enjoying some down time this week and was travelling to San Lameer so never saw the opening lines

Here is how the current SRP lines at WSB compare to mine though

Crusaders -14.5 (-10.5) v Rebels
Waratahs +10.5 (+14.5) v Chiefs
Drua -9.5 (-11.5) v Moana
Brumbies +7.5 (+6.5) v Hurricanes
Highlanders -7.5 (-7.5) v Force
Reds +7.5 (+9.5) v Blues

All within a couple of points except the top 2
I think I may have erred on Waratahs game but reckon Crusaders may get some support at -10 levels

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1 week 3 days ago #5 by Pablo

wslark1 wrote: Some leans for me.

Looks to be slightly drizzly this weekend around the UK.

Bath +4
Bristol +6
Cardiff +3 (if you can still get it)
Dragons +8

If any of the .5 options open up when 365 open the 2-way market. Plus those in instead, +8.5 for dragons etc.

Will see how the weather looks later in the week. These aren't just based on the weather, think they're wide generally.


Strongly agree on Bath +4, they should be favourites at home.
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1 week 3 days ago #6 by Brent Graham
A few significant differences in the URC but I do struggle to cap these

Ulster -4.5 (-12.5) v Benetton
Scarlets +2.5 (+6.5) v Sharks
Zebre +14.5 (+13.5) v Warriors
Bulls -16.5 (-19.5) v Ospreys
Cardiff +6.5 (+2.5) v Edinburgh
Lions -3.5 (+4.5) v Munster
Stormers -16.5 (-14.5) v Leinster
Dragons +9.5 (+6.5) v Connacht

Not going to make any moves just a small double Benetton +12.5, Lions +4.5

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1 week 3 days ago - 1 week 3 days ago #7 by Pablo
Montauban dnb @5 1u

Win or die match, very close derby, Colomiers stadium will be full of green shirts (5e transport for Sapiac supporters). Colo 8 points below playoffs and looks like season is over with 3 matches to play.

We layed them last weeks, now is time to back Sapiac.
Last edit: 1 week 3 days ago by Pablo.
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1 week 1 day ago #8 by Brent Graham
Hi Lads,

Will be doing the show from San Lameer tonight and then travelling back tomorrow

The Mossman will be joining me live at 21h00 and you can click here to set a reminder on YOU TUBE


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1 week 1 day ago #9 by Brent Graham
Fridays Super Rugby plays are up and the remaining SR and URC picks will be posted in this blog

Crusaders -11.5 19/20
Waraths over 21.5 pts 10/11

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1 week 1 day ago #10 by Brad Breath
Line melting, but managed to get some Sharks -5 @ 1.83

Scarlets scrum will be on wheels

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1 week 21 hours ago #11 by Brent Graham

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1 week 13 hours ago - 1 week 13 hours ago #12 by Kirky

Pablo wrote: Montauban dnb @5 1u

Win or die match, very close derby, Colomiers stadium will be full of green shirts (5e transport for Sapiac supporters). Colo 8 points below playoffs and looks like season is over with 3 matches to play.

We layed them last weeks, now is time to back Sapiac.

Urgh, ha ha
Bairitz beating Agen last nite took me out on 3 accumulators :S

Question now is, do I repeat them, or not ?
Because the D2 has been a consistently good earner for me up to now in providing my purse for the rest of the weekend by Saturday morning.

A great start for my weekend :pinch:
Always happens when I'm being too clever ..
Last edit: 1 week 13 hours ago by Kirky. Reason: more thought
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1 week 12 hours ago #13 by Roger Rabbit
Crusaders over 35.5 @ 9/10 with betfred . Not a lot of confidence.

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1 week 11 hours ago #14 by Roger Rabbit
Added crusaders -4.5 halftime 8/10 with betfred

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1 week 11 hours ago #15 by southpaw
Low on confidence myself but also like Saders -

Over 35,5 pts @ 10/11
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1 week 10 hours ago #16 by coil
How awful it is to see a Crusaders side in such a state , butchering many tries with absolutely zero composure .

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1 week 10 hours ago #17 by coil
Can Johnny McNicol please put some fuking studs on his boots , if he's not making a few yards he's forever falling over and can the big goon centres stop carrying the ball in one hand .

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1 week 9 hours ago #18 by coil
Never in doubt lads , well done South and RR .
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1 week 9 hours ago #19 by Roger Rabbit

southpaw wrote: Low on confidence myself but also like Saders -

Over 35,5 pts @ 10/11

Never in doubt , easy as you like South haha well played , nice start to the weekend

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1 week 9 hours ago #20 by southpaw

Roger Rabbit wrote:

southpaw wrote: Low on confidence myself but also like Saders -

Over 35,5 pts @ 10/11

Never in doubt , easy as you like South haha well played , nice start to the weekend


nice one RR! Geez lads we deserved that late try, left so many points out there in 1st half.

Saders in play-offs are not going to be easy to beat.

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1 week 9 hours ago - 1 week 9 hours ago #21 by Pablo

Kirky wrote:

Pablo wrote: Montauban dnb @5 1u

Win or die match, very close derby, Colomiers stadium will be full of green shirts (5e transport for Sapiac supporters). Colo 8 points below playoffs and looks like season is over with 3 matches to play.

We layed them last weeks, now is time to back Sapiac.

Urgh, ha ha
Bairitz beating Agen last nite took me out on 3 accumulators :S

Question now is, do I repeat them, or not ?
Because the D2 has been a consistently good earner for me up to now in providing my purse for the rest of the weekend by Saturday morning.

A great start for my weekend :pinch:
Always happens when I'm being too clever ..


This time of the season the bottom teams overperform, no one wants to play in Federale 1 next year.

Unlucky I don't have team points anymore un bet365 but if you can find this two lines, both are for 2.5u:

Grenoble o14.5 ht
Nevers o29.5

Both rivals rotate heavily (Béziers at least left something on the bench so first half should be on Grenoble side). Angouleme with a second string as they are almost saved.
Last edit: 1 week 9 hours ago by Pablo.
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1 week 9 hours ago #22 by Jameson
Waratahs +13.5 to save an already grim weekend (foolishly went overs on the Saders) ......

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1 week 9 hours ago #23 by Roger Rabbit
Chiefs over 35.5 @ evens with sunbet

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1 week 9 hours ago #24 by Brad Breath

Roger Rabbit wrote: Chiefs over 35.5 @ evens with sunbet


Taken the same bet RR

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1 week 9 hours ago #25 by southpaw

Roger Rabbit wrote: Chiefs over 35.5 @ evens with sunbet


joining you RR on the Chiefs over 35.5.

Keep thinking this Tah's side can leak heavy points when they're not 100% on it. Hopefully tonight.

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1 week 8 hours ago #26 by southpaw
Tahs have got in the face of Chiefs and sucked them into off the ball stuff. Chiefs falling right into the trap, no leadership in their side.

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1 week 8 hours ago #27 by southpaw
well this one is dead, Chiefs have not even pitched up. Giving back profits from Saders points here. Friday normal business resumes.

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1 week 8 hours ago #28 by shaft
SA Cup - EP vs Griekwas

EP's wheels have come off. (Were they ever on)

Griekwas -42.5 @ 9/10 with Pokerbet.

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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1 week 7 hours ago #29 by Roger Rabbit

southpaw wrote: well this one is dead, Chiefs have not even pitched up. Giving back profits from Saders points here. Friday normal business resumes.

Chin up South , this bet was never in doubt :whistle: :whistle:

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1 week 7 hours ago #30 by southpaw

Roger Rabbit wrote:

southpaw wrote: well this one is dead, Chiefs have not even pitched up. Giving back profits from Saders points here. Friday normal business resumes.

Chin up South , this bet was never in doubt :whistle: :whistle:


lol i was going for the reverse psychology approach! Another late show and my nerves are a bit shot for a friday morning.

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1 week 6 hours ago #31 by Pablo
Managed to take glos +8 ha @1.80 for 2u

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1 week 5 hours ago #32 by coil
Pablo that's a goodie , I'm all over Gloucester !

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1 week 2 hours ago #33 by Pablo
o56.5 harlequins-northampton @1.85 2u

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1 week 38 minutes ago #34 by Pablo

Pablo wrote: Montauban dnb @5 1u

Win or die match, very close derby, Colomiers stadium will be full of green shirts (5e transport for Sapiac supporters). Colo 8 points below playoffs and looks like season is over with 3 matches to play.

We layed them last weeks, now is time to back Sapiac.


Brainless tackle by Vici and clear red card to Montauban, that sums up their season.

Enjoy Federale ...
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1 week ago #35 by southpaw
Can’t watch but like Fassi for a big game -

Fassi man match @ 14/1

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6 days 22 hours ago #36 by southpaw
Brumbies canes over 57.5 @ 5/6

Highlanders Force over 59,5 @ 5/6

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6 days 14 hours ago #37 by Roger Rabbit
Brumbies over 25.5

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6 days 14 hours ago #38 by R3V3R3NT_
I guess I'm walking into a big trap because Cane into -4.5 seems absurd to me. Moving the chips all in Canes and some -12.5 @ $3+

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6 days 14 hours ago #39 by Brent Graham
Taken over 55.5 in Canberra

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6 days 13 hours ago #40 by Kirky

Pablo wrote:

Pablo wrote: Montauban dnb @5 1u

Win or die match, very close derby, Colomiers stadium will be full of green shirts (5e transport for Sapiac supporters). Colo 8 points below playoffs and looks like season is over with 3 matches to play.

We layed them last weeks, now is time to back Sapiac.


Brainless tackle by Vici and clear red card to Montauban, that sums up their season.

Enjoy Federale ...

Pity that, but my weekend Pro D2 had gone tits-up well before that game :S

Was on Benetton and Bath also for W's at good odds, was certain they were the wrong favorites, pity that too :ohmy:
I've a small acca running tonight in the Top14, and will leave it at that and hope for a nice surprise on Sunday morning (not televised here).

So I'm closing shop for this weekend, and just gonna enjoy the day's rugby.
I'm a bit troubled by the volatility at the mo tbh..
Might have a go at the Sunday GPR matches, but we'll see.

Thanx for the tips, nothing can be done about an ever-lurking red card anyway.
Go for it guys, will sit Saturday out, good luck all :beer

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6 days 12 hours ago #41 by R3V3R3NT_

R3V3R3NT_ wrote: I guess I'm walking into a big trap because Cane into -4.5 seems absurd to me. Moving the chips all in Canes and some -12.5 @ $3+


Walked into that one

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6 days 12 hours ago #42 by Pablo

Pablo wrote: I took Brumbies +8.5 ha @1.91 2u

They're trolling me this season but I don't expect another shitshow like last round.

Reds +9.5 also catched my eye.


Not trolling me six times in a row

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6 days 11 hours ago #43 by Experienced Novice
Western Force +8.5 vs Highlanders. Highlanders has got zero fighting spirit this year.
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6 days 11 hours ago #44 by Roger Rabbit
Over 59.5 highlanders v force

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6 days 11 hours ago #45 by Jameson

Experienced Novice wrote: Western Force +8.5 vs Highlanders. Highlanders has got zero fighting spirit this year.


I've done the opposite - Force have done nothing away (so far!) this season? Meanwhile Highlanders due a good game .......

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6 days 11 hours ago #46 by Brent Graham
Gone under 59.5 in Dunedin so the forum very much split on this one.

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6 days 11 hours ago #47 by R3V3R3NT_
Yeah I think you get a highlanders bounce. Got one from cantabs and brumbies. Taken some over 59.5 and opening a beer or two.

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6 days 11 hours ago #48 by Brent Graham
A decent start to the weekend for me spoilt a bit when the points dried up in Canberra

Bulls v Ospreys Preview

The line is high but I don't think it is high enough - taking over 61.5


Stormers v Leinster Preview

Leinster over 17.5

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6 days 11 hours ago #49 by southpaw
Had mentally banked the overs at HT in Canberra and can’t believe how it dried up.

Now at Forsyth Barr it could end 0-0 at a ground that used to average 60-70 a few seasons ago. Giving back yesterdays profits here.

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6 days 10 hours ago #50 by Jameson

Brent Graham wrote: Gone under 59.5 in Dunedin so the forum very much split on this one.


The wise old head chooses the correct path again!

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