AFCON Group D concludes on Wednesday with places in the quarter finals still up for grabs. Third place Mali take on bottom of the log Botswana in Libreville knowing the more positive result they achieve here, the greater the pressure they will put on the other contenders.

The final round of group matches take place and there are a number of permutations as to how things could pan out. Ghana currently control this group with six points ahead of Guinea and Mali who both have three and Botswana have yet to take a point. The chances of head to head criteria and then goal difference being used to determine who goes through loom large and with Ghana and Guinea kicking off at the same time, it could get very tense.

Mali started with a 1-0 win over Guinea which might prove even more significant than it seemed at the time if head to head results decide the group standings. A 2-0 defeat to Ghana followed and their best hope is for Ghana to avoid defeat against Guinea in which case a win here would see them join the Black Stars in the last eight. They really ought to fancy their chances after Botswana were thrashed 6-1 by Guinea in their latest outings after opening with a 1-0 loss against Ghana. In Angola 2010, Mali missed out on emerging from another group that went right down to the wire despite winning their final match 3-1 against Malawi.

Mathematically, Botswana could still qualify but they would need to win this game by a wide margin and then hope Ghana beat Guinea to get involved in the calculations. Their 6-1 capitulation to Guinea suggests it is an unlikely scenario and even though they played the whole of the second half of that game with ten men, they were already behind at that time and were simply overrun. Their earlier 1-0 loss to Ghana also involved a red card, this time for Botswana's opponents and as their consolation goal against Guinea came from the penalty spot, they have yet to score from open play.

The Betting, Match Result

Botswana 8/1 BetXchange, World Sports Betting

Draw 4/1 BetXchange, World Sports Betting

Mali 7/20 Sportsbet, Hollywood

Selected Others

Under 2.5 goals 15/20 World Sports Betting

Over 2.5 goals 5/4 Voltbet

Both teams to score (no) 9/20 Sportsbet

Both teams to score (yes) 18/10 BetXchange

HT/FT Mali/Mali 10/11 Sportingbet

Note, odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change. Not all bookmakers had priced up at the time of writing and many more markets are available. Watch out for the option to bet “in play” where available

Analysis

I haven't been overly impressed with Mali but the hiding Botswana took last time out is hard to get away from. The concern is that we haven't really seen Mali in these circumstances where the onus is really on them to make the running. I'll take my chances they will be up to the task and get themselves in front by the interval although it is no more than a tentative pick.

Bet: HT/FT Mali/Mali 10/11 Sportingbet

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