Burkina Faso meet Angola in Group B of AFCON 2012 in Malabo on Sunday and with tournament favourites Ivory Coast also in this group, this is likely to be one of the key fixtures in deciding who goes through.

If as expected Ivory Coast top this group, this game looks hugely significant in deciding who will join the Elephants in the knockout stage with Sudan the other nation in the mix. Burkina Faso are marginal favourites although there isn't much in it. A win for either team would put them in a really strong position and leave the proverbial mountain to climb for the losers. So who, if either, is best equipped to get off to a flyer?

Burkina Faso came through a pretty soft qualifying group which consisted of just three nations. They won three and drew one of their matches against Gambia and Namibia to seal their place in the finals with few if any scares. A number of the squad can draw on the experience gained in the 2010 AFCON finals which was hosted by their opponents here. Burkina Faso were always going to be up against it in the 2010 finals after being paired with Ivory Coast and Ghana (Togo withdrew) but they gave a really good account of themselves. They started the campaign by holding Ivory Coast to a 0-0 draw and went down to Ghana by the only goal of the game having played the last 25 minutes with ten men. There isn't too much to go on in terms of meeting quality opposition in recent times although those who remember Bafana's 3-0 win over The Stallions in August last year will hardly have been impressed. To be fair, Burkina Faso brought a second string squad to SA for that fixture, their top stars ply their trade in French Ligue 1 and I expect them to be unrecognizable from that hapless showing against Bafana. Warm up matches comprise of two goalless stalemates, one with Cameroon and the other with 2012 co-hosts Gabon.

If this clash turns out to anything like as exciting as Angola's opening game in the 2010 Finals then we are in for a treat. Angola were 4-0 up and cruising with 11 minutes left against Mali two years ago and amazingly the game ended 4-4. Angola went on to qualify from the group after beating Malawi 2-0 and drawing 0-0 with Algeria but they were beaten 1-0 by Ghana in the knockout stage. In qualifying for these finals Angola topped a group including the useful Ugandan's as well as Kenya and Guinea Bissau. Home form was key, they won all three qualifiers without conceding but they were beaten in Uganda and Kenya so there could be question marks when playing outside of their home turf. Angola defeated Sierra Leone 3-1 in a prep match for the finals and also drew 0-0 with a makeshift Nigerian team.

The Betting, Match Result

Burkina Faso 16/10 BetXchange, Sportsbet

Draw 21/10 Ladbrokes

Angola 2/1 Sportsbet

Selected Others

Half Time Result Draw, even money Sportsbet

Burkina Faso Draw no bet 5/6 World Sports Betting

Angola Draw no Bet 11/10 Sportsbet

HT/FT Draw/Draw 4/1 Sportsbet

Note, odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change. Not all bookmakers had priced up at the time of writing and many more markets are available. Watch out for the option to bet “in play” where available

Analysis

Defeat here would be highly likely to see an early exit from the tournament and it is particularly important for Burkina Faso not to lose as they bump the Ivory Coast in their next fixture. It could be something of a chess match although there are match winners on both sides, in particular Manucho (FC Porto) who leads the line for Angola. Burkina at full strength are no pushovers though and in keeping with a speculative approach at small stakes for these opening games, I'll go with Draw/Draw in the HT/FT market at a pretty nice price

Bet: HT/FT Draw/Draw 4/1 Sportsbet

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