Co hosts Equatorial Guinea get the ball rolling in the 2012 AFCON Finals on Saturday with the first match of the tournament taking place in Bata and Libya provide the opposition.

The plan is to give these AFCON Finals full coverage in terms of betting previews and this opening game represents something of a conundrum for those not too familiar with either Equatorial Guinea or Libya. As well as the usual websites for research on form and stats, the official CAF website and Supersport (who are showing all the games live) will be useful resources over the coming weeks. Let's move on to the opening match of the tournament, a Group A clash involving the two outsiders of a quartet which also comprises of Senegal and Zambia who meet at the same venue later in the day.

As co-hosts, Equatorial Guinea didn't have to contest qualifying for these finals and as such, represent the proverbial unknown quantity. EG have played one warm up match at this stadium, a 0-0 draw in “friendly” with our very own Bafana Bafana on 6^th January. I use the word “friendly” tongue in cheek as the match was reportedly a physical one in which Morgan Gould and Bafana coach Pitso Mosimane were both shown red cards. It's not easy to find reliable pointers in terms of form, Equatorial Guinea drew a home friendly 1-1 with Cameroon last year and then came through a 2014 World Cup 1^st Round Qualifier against Madagascar 3-2 before Christmas, winning 2-0 at home before going down 2-1 in the away leg. They will meet Tunisia in the next qualifying round in June this year. Henri Michel was tasked with preparing the squad before he quit as coach (twice) towards the end of last year. Brazilian Gilson Paulo has taken over and includes a few overseas based players in his squad.

If little is known about the hosts by most of us the same can also be said of Libya although we do have some form to work with in terms of their campaign to qualify for these finals. Libya were unbeaten in six qualifying group matches, three wins and three draws and went on to seal their place here as one of the best runners up, finishing a point behind fellow Group A contenders Zambia. Moxambique and Comoros were the nations eliminated. It's worth noting that Libya scored just six goals in qualifying but conceded only once. A warm up match against tournament favourites Ivory Coast saw Libya lose 1-0 last Monday, they are also coached by a Brazilian, Marcos Paqueta ,who will select from the following squad which is thin on the ground in terms of striking options.

Onto the betting:

The Betting, Match Result

Equatorial Guinea 1.87/1 Ladbrokes

Draw 22/10 BetXchange

Libya 1.85/1 Hollywood

Selected Others

Under 1.5 goals 12/10 Sportingbet

Over 1.5 goals 7/10 World Sports Betting

Under 2.5 goals 4/10 BetXchange

Over 2.5 goals 2/1 Sportingbet, World Sports Betting

Half Time Draw, 8/10 World Sports Betting, BetXchange, Hollywood

Note, odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change. Not all bookmakers had priced up at the time of writing and many more markets are available. Watch out for the option to bet “in play” where available

Analysis

A cautious approach is adopted for this opening game. Libya's stats in qualifying suggest it will be tight, a fact not gone unnoticed by the bookmakers in the total goals quotes. The draw, trading at sub 2/1 on many books, has to come into calculations although the concern would be that this looks the most winnable game for both these teams and is therefore crucial to their hopes of a top two finish and progress to the knockout rounds. I'm hoping someone might nick it 1-0 but rather than go under 1.5 goals, a speculative stab at the correct score markets is my play

Bet: Equatorial Guinea to win 1-0 at 6/1 with Ladbrokes

Libya to win 1-0 at 5/1 with Ladbrokes

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