AFCON co-hosts Equatorial Guinea are already assured of a place in the quarter finals and Zambia, their opponents on Sunday need just a point to join them. Bookmakers have accordingly priced up the the draw pretty short but there is an extra incentive for Zambia to go for the win.

Equatorial Guinea became the first nation to reach the quarter finals when they notched their second win in two Group A matches against Senegal earlier this week. A late goal in atrocious conditions for a 2-1 victory saw the hosts see off the challenge of the much fancied Teranga Lions who are left with only pride to play for in their final match against Libya which shares the same kick off time as this game. Both of the hosts wins so far came in Bata but they now move to Malabo to wind up their group campaigns. Equatorial Guinea are currently two points clear of Zambia so a win or draw will ensure top spot but defeat would see them finish as runners up and that could be significant. Whoever wins this group will face the runner up of Group B and probably avoid a knockout meeting with tournament favourites Ivory Coast, facing either Angola or even Sudan instead.

Equatorial Guinea have become the masters of the late goal. A late strike saw them edge out Libya (1-0) on the opening day of the tournament but the subsequent win over Senegal is the result that made AFCON punters sit up and take notice. Meanwhile Zambia also started with a 2-1 win over Senegal and they subsequently shared four goals with Libya, twice coming from behind on the waterlogged Bata surface. Torrential rain may have been a leveler in both of Wednesday matches, the conditions will also have sapped the energy but Zambia also have the “avoid Ivory Coast incentive” to play for. Sure, first and foremost Chipolopolo must get a point to make sure of a quarter final place but if they manage a win, they will overhaul Equatorial Guinea to top Group A.

The Betting, Match Result

Equatorial Guinea 12/5 Sportingbet

Draw 19/10 Sportsbet

Zambia 29/20 Sportingbet, Sportsbet

Selected Others

Draw no Bet Equatorial Guinea 14/10 Sportsbet

Draw no Bet Zambia 0.65 Sportsbet

Half Time Result, Draw even money Sportsbet

Both teams to score (yes) 21/20 Sportsbet

Both teams to score (no) 7/10 Sportsbet

HT/FT Draw/Zambia 15/4 Voltbet

Note, odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change. Not all bookmakers had priced up at the time of writing and many more markets are available. Watch out for the option to bet “in play” where available

Analysis

Bookmakers are taking their time in pricing up all bar the match result market but of the prices that were available in the “exotics” at the time of writing, there are two that stand out. First priority for both sides is not to lose but if we are to get a winner, I would say Zambia are the most likely. The price for a draw at half time certainly looks worthy of interest and a nibble at the HT/FT market with Zambia to edge it in the second period also takes the eye.

Bets: Half time result, draw, even money Sportsbet

HT/FT Draw/Zambia 15/4 Voltbet

Follow more picks and opinion on our discussion forum for late calls and the views of others in our sports betting community

Follow the Goodforthegame Sports Betting Analysts on Twitter
Alan Moscrop	Brent Graham	Chris Sturdy	Sean Nicholas