The third and fourth AFCON 2012 quarter finals take place on Sunday and first up, co hosts Gabon take on Mali in Libreville in what has the makings of a tight game.

Gabon came through a tough looking Group C as table toppers after winning all three of their matches to seal their quarter final place. They have looked capable of going deep in this tournament right from their first match even though their group also included a strong looking Morocco side and Tunisia with Niger making up the quartet. Pierre Emerick Aubameyang is proving to be one of the stars of the tournament. The three goals scored so far by the St. Etieinne striker have all been crucial. He grabbed the hosts first goal in a 2-0 win against Niger which set the tone for their group campaign. Next up the Panthers were in trouble, trailing 1-0 to Morocco at the break but Aubameyang hauled his side level and they eventually came out on top 3-2 with a last gasp winner in a thrilling game. Gabon still needed a point against Tunisia in order to seal top spot in the group and avoid Ghana in the quarters and it was Aubameyang who came up with the only goal of the game, admittedly courtesy of a bizarre mistake by the Tunisia keeper. Their task against Tunisia was also made easier by their opponents making wholesale changes to what is considered their best starting XI.

Mali came through Group D as runners up to Ghana winning their first and third matches in the group stage and losing 2-0 to the Black Stars in between. They made hard work of both their wins and were especially fortunate to edge out Guinea 1-0 in their opener. Mali beat Botswana, who lost all three of their matches, in their final group action but it wasn't without a scare along the way after they conceded first before hitting back to win 2-1. They look a little harder to assess than their opponents here but they did keep Ghana at bay for over an hour in their one defeat so far and reaching the quart finals is something they had failed to do in Angola 2010. They look well organised and if they do get their noses in front as they did against Guinea, who in my opinion are similar in ability to Gabon, they will be tough to conquer.

The Betting, To Qualify (any method)

Gabon 5/10 Hollywood, World Sports Betting

Mali 31/20 Sportingbet

Match Result (90 minutes)

Gabon 19/20 Sportsbet, Hollywood

Draw 9/4 Sportsbet

Mali 33/10 World Sports Betting

Selected Others (90 minutes)

Halt Time Result, Draw, 11/10 Sportsbet

Double Chance Draw/Mali 8/10 Sportsbet, World Sports Betting

One team to score only 10/11 Sportingbet

Under 1.5 goals 17/10 Sportingbet

Note, odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change. Not all bookmakers had priced up at the time of writing and many more markets are available. Watch out for the option to bet “in play” where available

Analysis

Gabon caught for fire for 20 minute spells in each of their first two matches but it could be that Mali have the guns to make this really tight and I'm not going to try and call the match result. I do like the look of the draw at half time but I'm going to speculate in the goals market and suggest we may see no more than one scored.

Bet: Under 1.5 goals 17/10 Sportingbet

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