Ghana need just a draw from their final AFCON Group D match with Guinea on Wednesday to ensure top spot in the group whilst depending on what happens elsewhere, Guinea might just have to win this to keep themselves in the hunt for a quarter final place.

Ghana are in control of the group with two wins from two but they are not yet ensured of a place in the last eight. If the Black Stars lose here and Mali, who are short priced favourites to beat Botswana, come out on top in their match it could all get very complex with head to heads and goal difference deciding who goes through.

Ghana have yet to concede, a 1-0 win over Botswana was followed by a 2-0 victory over Mali and their performances and results have pretty much mirrored that of tournament favourites Ivory Coast who went on to win all three of their group matches. The Black Stars haven't really taken anybody to pieces and you get the impression there is still improvement to come and this looks their biggest test to date. Skipper John Mensah who was red carded against Botswana and also picked up a knock is still on the treatment table but is making progress in his recovery although at the time of writing it is not clear whether he will be fit for this game.

Guinea went down 1-0 to Mali in their opener where they were a touch unfortunate on the balance of play. They wasted little time in putting Botswana away with a record equaling 6-1 scoreline last time out, completely dominating their opponents who played the second half with ten men. They look dangerous to me but their problem is that loss to Mali which could count against them if head to heads are needed to decide the group and they now face the strongest nation in this quartet last up.

Whoever tops the group will meet the runner up in Group C where Gabon and Tunisia will battle for supremacy on Tuesday night.

The teams haven't met since the 2008 AFCON finals in which Ghana, who hosted the tournament, topped the group and Guinea finished as runners up. Ghana won that game 2-1 and went to make the semi finals whilst Guinea were thrashed by Ivory Coast in the quarters.

The Betting, Match Result

Ghana 21/20 Sportsbet

Draw 9/4 Sportingbet, Ladbrokes

Guinea 28/10 BetXchange, World Sports Betting

Selected Others

HT Result Draw, 12/10 Sportsbet

Double Chance Draw/Guinea 8/10 Sportsbet

Under 2.5 goals 7/10 BetXchange, Voltbet, World Sports Betting, Sportingbet

Over 2.5 goals 12/10 Voltbet

Both teams to score (yes) 9/10 BetXchange, Sportsbet

Note, odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change. Not all bookmakers had priced up at the time of writing and many more markets are available. Watch out for the option to bet “in play” where available

Analysis

This gets tricky, not least because Mali are expected to beat Botswana in the other group match and if they get in front early, you can be sure Guinea will hear of it. It is likely that Guinea will have to go for it at some stage anyway and they look capable of causing problems but whether they have enough to pull off an upset is questionable. I'll take a stab at the half time draw, the top price for which looks attractive as it is quoted “odds on” with a number of books.

Bet: HT Result Draw, 12/10 Sportsbet

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