The Black Stars of Ghana take on Mali in AFCON Group D in Franceville on Saturday. Both teams made a winning start to the campaign and whilst Ghana are the bookmakers odds on favourites to follow up, it might not be that straight forward.

Ghana made a winning but unspectacular start to this group, beating Botswana by the only goal of the game. John Mensah scored in the first half but was sent off mid way through second and will miss the match through suspension. Mensah also picked up an injury and would have been doubtful anyway but the absence of the skipper is undoubtedly a blow. Beaten finalists in 2010, Ghana were no stranger to finishing with a 1-0 scoreline as all bar one of their five matches in Angola two years ago ended that way (three won, one lost). Depending on how the earlier game between Botswana and Guinea in this group goes, a win for Ghana here could assure them of a quarter final place ahead of their final group match against Guinea.

Mali were pretty fortunate to open their campaign with a 1-0 in over Guinea where they were second best for long periods. They were solid defensively though and a relatively young side will be all the better for the experience. A draw here would be a major bonus in their bid to reach the quarter finals and that may well be reflected in how they set their stall out. Looking at their last ten competitive matches, a 1-0 defeat to Ivory Coast in a February 2011 friendly is the only game in which they have failed to hit the target.

These nations contested the same 2010 World Cup qualifying group. Ghana won 2-0 in Mali and went on to clinch top spot before the teams shared four goals in their final group match.

Just a word on the early betting, the top price quoted for Mali is way to big and something around half those odds would be more representative of their chances.

The Betting, Match Result

Ghana 9/10 Sportsbet

Draw 3/1 BetXchange

Mali 8/1 BetXchange

Selected Others

Double Chance Draw/Mali 0.95 Sportsbet

Both team to score? (no) 6/10 BetXchange, Sportsbet

Both teams to score (yes) 13/10 BetXchange

One team to score only 17/20 Sportingbet

Half Time Result, Draw 11/10 Sportsbet

Correct Score Ghana win 1-0 44/10 Sportsbet

Note, odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change. Not all bookmakers had priced up at the time of writing and many more markets are available. Watch out for the option to bet “in play” where available

Analysis

As far as the correct score is concerned, 1-0 to the Black Stars has to be a runner but the absence of John Mensah in the heart of their defence puts me off a touch. Mali will work their socks off and I reckon it could well be close though not necessarily without goals. My preferred option here is to go with the half time draw at a shade over even money.

Bet: Half Time Result, Draw 11/10 Sportsbet

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