AFCON 2012 flops Senegal take on Libya in their final Group A match in Bata on Sunday. The Teranga Lions have only pride to play for whilst Libya's slim hopes of a quarter final place rest on a win here and results elsewhere in this group going their way.

Libya's 2-2 draw with Zambia keeps them just about alive in the race to finish as runners up in Group A but their part of the equation is simple, they must win this final group game. In addition, they need Zambia to lose to Equatorial Guinea in a match which kicks off at the same time and should that happen we look (to anybody other than SAFA) for clarification of the rules. With Libya's head to head with Zambia finishing all square, goal difference will be vital and Libya are currently (-1) with Zambia (+1).

When Libya lost their opening game of the tournament 1-0 to Equatorial Guinea, they were always going to have a mountain to climb to reach the quarter finals. They were in front twice again Zambia on a waterlogged surface at this ground on Wednesday but couldn't hold the lead for long on either occasion. It was a spirited display though and a credit to the players in the worst conditions I can recall seeing a continental finals game being played in. “Win at all costs” quotes have been emanating from the Libya camp and it's hard to gauge what the mindset of their opponents here will be.

Senegal have lost both their matches 2-1 and will head home with more than a degree of embarrassment following this game. They were third best in the pre-tournament betting to lift the trophy and yet their last gasp defeat, having just come from a goal down, against Equatorial Guinea on Wednesday meant they were the first team to fall out of contention for a quarter final place. There are bound to be casualties in a nation which doesn't take kindly to failure on the football field with coach Amara Traore firmly in the firing line. Whether wounded pride will be enough to see Senegal show their better side and gain a consolation win is hard to call in the circumstances of such bitter disappointment.

The Betting, Match Result

Libya 3/1 Sportsbet

Draw 21/10 Sportingbet, Ladbrokes

Senegal 11/10 Sportingbet, Ladbrokes

Selected Others

Under 2.5 goals 5/10 Voltbet

Over 2.5 goals 16/10 Sportingbet

Note, odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change. Not all bookmakers had priced up at the time of writing and many more markets are available. Watch out for the option to bet “in play” where available

Analysis

A number of top European clubs will be delighted to see their Senegal stars returning earlier than expected and you could arguably question how motivated some of the big names will be. If Senegal really want to restore some pride they will have too much for Libya and whilst that is not ruled out, I won't be tempted to take them in the match result market. In a betting heat which makes limited appeal, I'll go with over 2.5 goals a most speculative play. Both Senegal matches so far have seen three goals scored and Libya's 2-2 draw with Zambia and “must win” situation suggests “overs”, at a nice price, could be worth an interest even though the playing surface took a pounding earlier in the week.

Bet: Over 2.5 goals 16/10 Sportingbet

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