The second round of AFCON 2012 group matches gets underway on Wednesday. Libya host a buoyant Zambia side in Group A in a match which could see Zambia seal their place in the knockout stages.

There were contrasting fortunes for these teams in their opening games of the tournament. Libya went down 1-0 to a late Equatorial Guinea goal whilst Zambia pulled off a major surprise in beating the pre tournament group favourites Senegal 2-1. Both those games took place at the Estadio de Bata which is once again the venue here. Equatorial Guines and Senegal will meet here later in the evening so Zambia get first crack and taking control of the group.

These nations came through the same qualifying group which Zambia topped with 13 points whilst Libya sneaked into the final as best runners up, one point behind there opponents here. Libya had the better of the head to heads, beating Zambia 1-0 in Tripoli in October 2010 and drawing the return 0-0 in Chingola in October last year. They were the only points which Zambia dropped, they won their four other group matches against Mozambique and Comoros and whilst Libya were unbeaten in the group, they dropped points against the other sides and finished with three wins and three draws. Zambia were the more potent team in qualifying, scoring 11 goals to Libya's six whilst both sides were tight defensively with Zambia conceding just two goals and Libya just the one.

Zambia will finish up their group fixtures against co-hosts Equatorial Guinea and a win here would see them in pole position to go on and top the group. Finishing top of Group A could be really significant as it would mean a quarter final against the runner up of Group B whilst the runner up in Group A will face the winner of Group B. Tournament favourites Ivory Coast are expected to win Group B and should they do so, they would hardly be anybody's first choice of quarter final opponent. The way Zambia went about the task of beating Senegal was admirable. They sliced their way through the Senegal defence a number of times early on and were rewarded with two goals. A second half fightback was to be expected but Zambia held on for a deserved 2-1 win.

Meanwhile Libya have it all to do after losing their opening game 1-0 to Equatorial Guinea. The decisive goal arrived in the 87^th minute and Libya could have few complaints as their lack of creativity in the final third saw them rarely threaten. It was a pretty even game against one of the co-hosts but going on the pre-tournament betting, it was arguably the most winnable of Libya's group fixtures.

Onto the betting:

The Betting, Match Result

Libya 33/10 World Sports Betting

Draw 11/5 Sportingbet

Zambia 0.95 Hollywood

Selected Others

Under 2.5 goals 5/10 Voltbet, Sportingbet

Over 2.5 goals 17/10 World Sports Betting

Note, odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change. Not all bookmakers had priced up at the time of writing and many more markets are available. Watch out for the option to bet “in play” where available

Analysis

I like Zambia here although the caution arrives in two pronged fashion. Firstly Libya had the better of the head to heads in the qualifiers and secondly, Zambia used up every ounce of energy in their opening day heroics. Still, Zambia have a cracking team spirit and are not short of creativity, something which was evidently lacking in Libya's opening performance. I do expect Libya to improve given they are staring potential elimination in the face but Zambia get the nod to march on towards the knockout stage.

Bet: Zambia 0.95 Hollywood

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