The first round of group matches in the AFCON 2012 finals concludes with the meeting between Mali and Guinea in Gabon on Tuesday night and the match result betting market has a wide open look about it.

If things go to plan then Ghana will obviously take all the beating in Group D but there could be precious little to choose between the other three sides, Mali, Guinea and Botswana. Mali will meet Ghana next up and presumably cannot afford to go into that game on the back of a defeat here. For many punters, these teams will be something of an unknown quantity so let's take a closer look at how they arrived at the finals.

Mali booked their ticket after topping a qualifying group including Cape Verde, Zimbabwe and Liberia. It was touch and go with Mali coming through after having the better head to head criteria than Cape Verde after both teams finished with three wins, one draw and two defeats. Mali won all three of their home games but struggled on their travels, taking just one point. They are coached by Alain Giresse, a fine player in his day and not surprisingly the French league is represented significantly in their squad make up. Throw in skipper Seydou Keita of Barcelona and they look useful enough to me although that qualifying group was hardly the strongest and their battle to qualify would be something of a concern in terms of their chances of going deep in the tournament. There is no Kanoute these days and the full squad is listed here.

Guinea topped their qualifying group at the expense of Nigeria, unbeaten with four wins and two draws. They took four points off the Super Eagles with a 1-0 home win and 2-2 draw in the return and they found the net at least once in all six of their qualifiers. Guinea also have a French coach, Michel Dussuyer who is on record as saying that many of his squad have not been playing regularly for their clubs this season. A 4-1 defeat to Senegal in a friendly international towards the end of last year would be another worry although the hangover from the joys of overcoming Nigeria may have been a factor.

There is no recent head to head data for what is a West African derby but these teams shared four goals in a 2005 friendly and Mali were 2-1 winners in the 2004 AFCON.

The Betting, Match Result

Mali 14/10 Hollywood, World Sports Betting, Sportsbet,

Draw 22/10 World Sports Betting, Sportsbet, BetXchange

Guinea 22/10 BetXchange

Selected Others

Half time Result, Draw 11/10 Sportsbet, BetXchange

Under 2.5 goals 13/20 World Sports Betting, Sportingbet, BetXchange

Over 2.5 goals 12/10 World Sports Betting

Draw no Bet Mali 7/10 Sportsbet

Draw no Bet Guinea 13/10 BetXchange

Note, odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change. Not all bookmakers had priced up at the time of writing and many more markets are available. Watch out for the option to bet “in play” where available

Analysis

This looks tough to call but neither side can really afford to lose with Ghana still to come so the draw certainly warrants a second look whether at half time, full time or both. However, I have slight preference for Mali, Alain Giresse has had two years in charge now and although their form in qualifying suggests they have plenty to do, they might just have enough to edge this. The draw no bet option provides the insurance in a tricky looking betting heat.

Bet: Draw no Bet Mali 7/10 Sportsbet

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