Saturday night sees the AFCON 2012 quarter finals get underway and first up, Zambia take on Sudan and the ever popular Chipolopolo start as the bookmakers favourites.

Zambia came through Group A with seven points to clinch top spot. They started with a surprise 2-1 win over much fancied Senegal, settled for a 2-2 draw on a waterlogged pitch against Libya and then saw off co hosts Equatorial Guinea with a 1-0 win. The significance of winning that last group match should not be underestimated as it took Zambia above Equatorial Guinea and means they avoided Group B winners and tournament favourites, Ivory Coast. This match is staged in Bata, the scene of Zambia's first two group matches and Chipolopolo look in great shape although one cloud on the horizon was three players breaking a team curfew after the final group game which led to one of them, Clifford Mulenga, being sent home. Zambia bid to improve on their 2010 finals display where they bowed out on penalty kicks at the quarter final stage after their tie with Nigeria failed to produce a goal.

Sudan pretty much gatecrashed the quarter finals at the eleventh hour. A 2-1 win over Burkina Faso in their final group match was their first AFCON finals win in 42 years and it proved enough to leapfrog Angola and finish runners up to Ivory Coast. They had previously twice come from a goal down to take a point in a 2-2 draw with Angola after losing their opening game 1-0 to Ivory Coast. They now break new ground in the knockout stages as arguably the most fortunate of the quarter finalists to have qualified thus far. Sudan will be happy this match takes place in Bata which was the venue for that historic win after their earlier group games were staged in Malabo.

Whoever wins this match will have the additional advantage of remaining in Bata for a semi final date with either Gabon or the runner up of Group D which was still to be concluded at the time of writing.

The Betting, Match Result (90 minutes)

Zambia 0.83 Ladbrokes

Draw 5/2 World Sports Betting, Sportsbet

Sudan 4/1 Sportsbet

Selected Others (90 minutes)

Double Chance Draw/Sudan even money Voltbet

Under 2.5 goals 11/20 BetXchange, Voltbet, World Sports Betting, Sportingbet

Over 2.5 goals 29/20 BetXchange

Both teams to score (yes) 13/10 BetXchange

Note, odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change. Not all bookmakers had priced up at the time of writing and many more markets are available. Watch out for the option to bet “in play” where available

Analysis

It would be dangerous to underestimate Sudan who have pulled out all the stops since losing their opening group match and will take some shaking off given their never say die attitude when qualification looked beyond them. However, Zambia will be happy enough with the way the draw has worked out and having topped a group which included Senegal and one of the hosts, their favourites tag here looks justified. Whilst two of the group matches involving each of these teams saw backers of over 2.5 goals and both teams to score (yes) collect, it's possible that Sudan might adopt a more cautious approach here. I'm going with Zambia to squeeze through in 90 minutes.

Bet: Zambia to win, 0.83 Ladbrokes

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