Week 5 of Super 14 2010 gets underway in Hamilton on Friday with an absolute cracker of a match between the Chiefs and the Crusaders and it is the visitors who start as narrow favourites.

Both of these sides have something in common this season in that they started double digit favourites against the Reds but ended up losing the game. Quite how the Chiefs managed to blow a 15-0 lead against an injury hit opponent and go tryless for the last 60 minutes of the game I will never know but they will certainly have to up the ante this week with the Crusaders in town.

The men from Christchurch were hammered when they played the Reds in Brisbane in week 2 but they have bounced back well with wins over the Sharks and Blues beating the handicap on each occasion.

TEAM NEWS
For the Chiefs Clarke returns at lock with De Malmanche starting at hooker for the injured Elliot.

Fotuali’i replaces the injured Ellis at no 9 for the Crusaders.

SARugby.com updates their team sheets list with any changes so it is worth keeping an eye on it in the lead up to kickoff.

HISTORY

Head to Head Chiefs at home

2008: 18-5
2006: 19-25
2004: 15-36

The Crusaders have won 4 from 7 away to the Chiefs and the average score in the 7 matches played in Chiefs territory is 22-25 to the Crusaders.

Last season the Crusaders won 19-13 in Christchurch

The Chiefs have a 50% handicap success rate this term and the Crusaders sit at 75% after 4 matches.

BETTING

Chiefs 1.63/1 with World of Sport
Draw 25/1
Crusaders 8/11 with GreatOdds

Handicap

Chiefs +4.5 at 9/10 with World Sports Betting
Crusaders -3.5 at 9/10 with Mbet and Betxchange

VERDICT

As exciting a game as this might be it is certainly not an easy one for punters. Mbet priced this up as a choice match in their early betting and the money not surprisingly came for the Crusaders but at 4.5 points I am now starting to lean towards the Chiefs. I think Clarke was missed last week and the travel factor appeared to have played a role as well. The Crusaders certainly never looked the same side in their one road trip away to the Reds and I am going to give the home team a tentative nod on the handicap and reckon there may even be some value in the outright market at a shade over 16/10.

BET: 2 units Chiefs +4.5 at 9/10 with World Sports Betting

SPREADS WATCH

The 2008 match between these sides still gives me sleepless nights. All the evidence pointed to a high scoring game but the Chiefs who were 10 point underdogs won a low scoring encounter 18-5. Last weeks match against the Reds was a similar tale so I will tread nervously here especially given that there are light showers forecast on Friday http://metservice.com/towns-cities/hamilton

If I do play the spreads or find any additional bets I will post on this thread in our Forum.

THE WEEK 5 SUPER 14 PODCAST IS ON SITE – CLICK HERE TO LISTEN

Kick Off: 12 March, 08:35 SA Time – Hamilton

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