|
The Sharks v Bulls and WP v Lions are the clashes that get most fans mouths watering but my bet for the day could come in the Pumas v Leopards match although I am not sure if I will get a price.
The Pumas v Leopards game is not televised which is a pity as I think it will be an entertaining one.
BETTING
Pumas 1/3 at Betxchange Draw 28/1 at Mbet and World of Sport Leopards 3/1 at GreatOdds, Mbet and World Sports Betting
Handicap Pumas -8.5 at 1/1 with World of Sport Leopards +10.5 at 9/10 with World Sports Betting
I think the Pumas will scare a few of the bigger teams at home this season and I am still kicking myself for not getting on the -3 Pumas which was Betxchange’s opening call. This was highlighted in our forum but I saw it late at night and paid the price for not having an online account with them.
I am not as confident about the current handicaps and instead will look to buy Pumas shirt numbers in the spread markets if I can get a quote. The reason I am concerned is that many spreads bookmakers price up on selective markets or not all when there is non televised game although I do recall World of Sport quoting all markets on the Leopards v Lions game last week so that is where I will be looking.
Last season the Pumas themselves averaged 47 points per home game and while they are up a division now the Leopards will not be that far off what they are accustomed to playing.
Conditions should be good and if the quote is reasonable I will be on and will post in the relevant forum thread.
WESTERN PROVINCE v LIONS
Both teams beat the handicap last week and WP were impressive in humbling the Cheetahs away, a match where they actually started underdogs.
The Lions cruised home over the Leopards in Potch although not having seen the game it is hard to read too much into that although I stick with my statement upfront that Mitchell will make a big difference to this side.
From a team news side WP are unchanged while the Lions have been hit by injuries and field a very youthful looking squad (as long as Mitchell does not pull an “Eloff” and talk constantly of building for the future)
History
Head to Head, WP at home
2009: 25-20 (WP started -10.5)
2008: 14-6
2007: 18-13
2006: 30-28
Province have won the last 4 but none of them by double figures.
The Lions beat WP 27-25 in Joburg last season.
BETTING
WP 2/7 at GreatOdds Draw 33/1 at Mbet and World of Sport Lions 3.75/1 at Mbet
Handicap WP -9 at 5/6 with GreatOdds Lions +10.5 at Mbet and World Sports Betting
BETTING ANGLE History suggests the Lions can get the cap but having looked at their team and taking account the strong showing of WP last week I am in the home camp here.
BET: 4 units Stormers -9 tie in play at 5/6 with GreatOdds
From a spreads perspective the weather looks like being decent and I may look at WP shirt numbers. Another tactic may be to wait until half time and if the Lions are in touch but under pressure then climb into the hosts shirts, points or supremacy.
SHARKS v BULLS
This match could not have come at a worse time for the Sharks having blown a lead away to Griquas last week. The Bulls beat the Pumas comfortably although in the end they allowed their neighbours to stay within the handicap a trend that occurred regularly in the Super 14.
The Sharks have shifted Lambie to centre and brought McLeod in for Kockott at no 9 while the Bulls have been forced into a change at lock with Steenkamp in for Van der Merwe who has been called up to the Bok squad.
History
Head to Head in Durban
2009: 19-13 (Sharks started +2.5)
2008: 34-25
2007: 29-10
2006: 32-50
The Sharks have won 3 on the trot in Durban despite starting underdog last year.
BETTING
Sharks 11/8 at GreatOdds Draw 25/1 at Betxchange and World Sports Betting Bulls 1/1 at World of Sport
Handicap Sharks +3.5 at World Sports Betting
Bulls – rather take the 1/1 they win at World of Sport
BETTING ANGLE I was initially leaning towards the Bulls on this one but I am worried about the fact that their depth is now being seriously tested and they were under the whip if not under pressure for long periods against the Pumas at Loftus.
I like the changes the Sharks have made and fancy they will bounce back with a win here. I am tempted by the 11/8 but will instead take the more conservative +3.5 option.
BET: 4 units Sharks +3.5 at 9/10 with World Sports Betting
The Cheetahs v Griquas preview is in our Rugby section and you can click here for our All Blacks v Boks preview.
Win a R5000 Trading Account at Global Trader This and cash prizes available in our Free2Play Currie Cup handicap competition – enter at www.sportspicks.co.za
BEST BET E-mail me
This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
to get on my mailing list – I generally send out 1 e-mail per week with my best or value bet and links to major previews.
You can follow Brent on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/brentgraham
|