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The Cheetahs host the Sharks in Bloemfontein and it is the Lions v the Bulls at Coca Cola Park, Johannesburg on Saturday. Looking at the betting a couple of fairly tight contests are forecast.
Cheetahs v Sharks
The Cheetahs really deserved their win over the Bulls last week and I say that not because of the fact that I backed them outright and on the cap but because I genuinely felt they outplayed their opponents on the night. They are back in Bloem this week where they beat the Griquas in week 2 and lost to WP in week 1 in both cases failing to land the handicap spoils. The Cheetahs have named an unchanged side from the one that did the business in Pretoria although Van der Linde and Bosman have been named on the bench.
Their opponents the Sharks have won their last 2 home games against the Pumas and Bulls but lost away to the Griquas in week 1. They welcome back a number of Springboks and Kankowski goes straight into the starting lineup while Meyer returns from injury at 10 and Skeate gets his first start at lock. The Beast and Ruan Pienaar joins what looks a really strong looking bench.
The Sharks won this encounter 12-21 last year having lost by 22 points in 2008 and 2 points in 2007.
BETTING
Cheetahs 8/10 with World Sports Betting, Mbet and Victor Chandler
Draw 28/1 at Betxchange
Sharks 4/3 at GreatOdds
Handicap
Cheetahs -1.5 at 9/10 with World Sports Betting
Sharks +2.5 at 9/10 with Mbet
BETTING ANGLE
A couple of our forum punters grabbed some 2/1 Sharks earlier in the week and I would have to say that that was a brilliant price as there really does not seem to be much between these sides. I am really struggling to pick a winner although am leaning towards the Cheetahs outright at 8/10 but I am not confident enough to back it.
I will more than likely look to the spreads and at this stage am wondering whether perhaps selling shirts will be an option. The weather looks good but this is always a big battle and you have to go back 7 matches to find the last time there was more than 45 points in a match between the sides.
Lions v Bulls
The Lions finally get a home match after 2 defeats on the trot to WP and Griquas. They have a tough ask though against a Bulls side also looking to avoid a hatrick of defeats and with the comfort of welcoming a few Bok players back into the mix.
The Bulls depth has been sorely tested and they were shown up away to the Sharks and at home to the Cheetahs but with the likes of Hougaard, Van der Merwe and Potgieter in the side this week they may be a different proposition.
The Lions have entrusted 19 year old Elton Jantjies with the key no 10 jersey and have also made a couple of other changes with the return from injury of Doppies la Grange perhaps the most significant.
The Lions won this fixture by 7 points last year and in 2007 they won by 5 while sandwiched in-between was a 14 point win for the Bulls.
BETTING
Lions 2.9/1 with World of Sport
Draw 28.57/1 with World of Sport
Bulls 4/11 with GreatOdds
Handicap
Lions +9 at 9/10 tie no bet with Betxchange
Bulls -8.5 at 1/1 with World of Sport
BETTING ANGLE
Sean Nicholas joined me on this week’s rugby podcast and he was very confident that the Bulls would beat what was a 7.5 point handicap at the time. He has noted this on the forum and what surprises me is that the handicap has barely shifted. Generally when someone like him (RuggaBugga in our forum) highlights value like this the punters fly in and the bookies take cover. I think the former has happened but the bookmakers seem willing to take a stand on this one and that means you can still get -8.5 and at even money as well.
Personally I was leaning towards the Lions earlier in the week but having seen the sides (and listened to Sean’s reasoning) I am now firmly in the Bulls camp. They appear to have too much firepower for a Lions side that has taken a big gamble at flyhalf and they look well poised to collect their first handicap of the season.
BET: 5 units Bulls -8.5 at 1/1 with World of Sport
Friday’s previews are in our Rugby section and you can click here for our Wallabies v Boks preview.
CLICK HERE FOR OUR DURBAN JULY COVERAGE
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