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 It has been 3 weeks since I conducted my last self analysis* on the Super 14 and while in general the long term picks are going ok my short term form has been very up and down with more dips than peaks of late.
LONG TERM PICKS
These are bets which finish at the end of the round robin stage or the tournament itself. The question I will answer at the end of each mini analysis is whether I would still take the same bet at the same price if offered to me today.
10 units Any New Zealand win at 12/10
The Crusaders are travelling well but the Chiefs and Hurricanes have started to struggle and while I could not find an updated price on this at the time of writing I imagine that you could now get bigger than 12/10
Take Bet Today? NO (Week 2 report NO)
10 units Stormers make semi’s at 33/10
I got really worried about this one after the Week 3 defeat to the Brumbies but things are back on track although a win against the Cheetahs this weekend is essential. There is no doubt that the initial price was great value and I see the Stormers are now 5/10 to qualify with GreatOdds. That looks too short but all things considered I am happy with progress.
Take Bet Today? YES (Week 2 report YES)
5 units Stormers top SA side at 4/1
Well the good news is that the Stormers are sitting 2nd on the log but from this bets perspective it must be said that the team above them the Bulls are looking very strong indeed. The Sharks appear to be dead and buried as do the Lions and the Cheetahs are unlikely to challenge so it looks a two horse race. Latest betting has the Bulls at 3/10 and the Stormers at 2/1.
Take Bet Today? YES although I would probably halve my stake (Week 2 report YES)
1 unit Stormers win at 16/1
The Stormers have firmed into 7/1 (click here for our Week 5 betting update) so we definitely found some value here although I won’t start getting excited about this one for some time and my main focus is on the Stormers to make the semifinals.
Take Bet Today? YES (Week 2 report YES)
2 units Force come last at 14/1
From a pure betting perspective this has been my best pick to date and the Force sit bottom of the log without a bonus point to show for their efforts but with a game in hand over most teams above them. Last time I saw betting bookmakers had the Wooden Spoon priced up as a virtual 2 horse race between the Lions and Force and that looks fair enough. The game in Johannesburg between the two is most likely going to be crucial to this bet.
Take Bet Today? YES (Week 2 Report YES)
5 units Crusaders win at 7/2
After a nervous start the Crusaders odds have started to come in and they certainly look like potential champions are now a shade over 5/2 for the title. Hard to see them missing the semifinals so we will almost certainly get a run for our money.
Take Bet Today? YES (Week 2 report NO)
3 units Waratahs Top Aus side at 2/1
We probably should not read too much into the Waratahs win over the Lions but I have a feeling they have turned the corner and may kick on. The Brumbies remain 5/10 favourites in this market but I have not been that impressed and am happy with my 2/1 which has remained stable virtually throughout the first 5 weeks. It is interesting though that the Reds who could have been backed upfront at around 40/1 are now into 4/1 so a 3rd contender has been thrown into the mix.
Take Bet Today? YES (Week 2 report MAYBE)
10 units Bulls to win at 13/2
This pick was made after week 1 when the Bulls impressed with their win over the Cheetahs but were amazingly still 13/2 at GreatOdds. They are now 5/2 favourites and look virtually unbeatable at Loftus but the key will be how they fare on the road? Still we got a great price and at the time I suggested they may be the favourites when they head out on tour which now looks likely.
Take Bet Today? YES (Week 2 Report YES)
FIXED ODDS MATCH BETS
I have been previewing each match on Goodforthegame (first ones out Thursday morning) and also posting the occasional fixed odds bet in our Forum. After a strong start my form has dipped and after 33 games 121 units have been invested for a return of 130.8 units. That relates to a 9.8 unit profit and an 8% return on investment. Not bad but hoping for some serious improvement over the coming weeks.
SPREADS
I also post spreads in the forum although these tend to be done close to kickoff and I often close out in running so it is hard to track on the site. I have had a real rollercoaster ride with big wins in the first 2 weeks followed by an 80% return of profits to bookmakers coffers in weeks 3 and 4 and another nice win in week 5. All in all I sit about 120 units up and hopefully I can kick on from here and finish the tournament strongly.
My Super 14 spreads experiment is once again suggesting that sellers may be more likely to profit than buyers in the long run and you can track progress here.
*I have always believed that keeping records of how much you are winning and losing is essential to being successful in sports betting and will periodically take a look at how I am going in the 2010 Super 14 and will post these updates on www.goodforthegame.co.za
There is some early discussion around the Week 6 Super 14 handicaps in our Forum.
  
 
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