2 weeks into the season I take my first self imposed performance appraisal.

I have long advocated that if you are serious about your betting you need to be able to say at all times whether or not you are winning or losing money. I have at times over the years kept meticulous records and these have usually coincided with profitable periods of disciplined betting but I have also been known to slack off and this is when a losing run can go unchecked as without facts and figures it is easy to fool oneself into thinking you are ahead of the game.

This year throughout Super 14 I will take regular look backs at my progress even though at times the exercise may be a painful one.

LONG TERM PICKS

These are bets which finish at the end of the round robin stage or the tournament itself. The question I will answer at the end of each analysis is whether I would still take the same bet at the same price if offered to me today.

10 units Any New Zealand win at 12/10

This was my first play and after initially shortening to 1/1, the Crusaders defeat and the Bulls great form have certainly put it under pressure. No current prices out but I imagine there will be some 15/10 about so not looking like the value play I thought it would be. Could be some nice insurance on the Hurricanes and Chiefs though who I have no interest on in the outright markets.

Take Bet Today? NO

10 units Stormers make semi’s at 33/10

This was great value if nothing else and having progressively shortened I would expect between 1/1 and 12/10 to be available now. There was a lot to like about the Waratahs win and with 4 home games on the trot they will have to keep rolling.

Take Bet Today? YES

5 units Stormers top SA side at 4/1

From a value perspective this looks like a good play although the early season form of the Bulls is an obvious concern. The Bulls are likely to be in at around 5/10 when the markets open this week with the Stormers somewhere around the 16/10 mark. Overall still happy with this play though and who knows there may be a chance to cover on the Bulls at some point.

Take Bet Today? YES

1 unit Stormers win at 16/1

The cherry on the top really as if this arrives it means the semifinal bet would have already been delivered. They are now 8/1 (click here for our week 2 betting update) so we got in at the right time at least.

Take Bet Today? YES

2 units Force come last at 14/1

Last week the Force were into 6/1 and I fancy they may be around 7/2 this week with rivals the Reds and Cheetahs winning and the Lions picking up 2 points. Happy with this one and think we will get a good run for our money all the way through.

Take Bet Today? YES

5 units Crusaders win at 7/2

This one looks on shaky ground if the defeat to the Reds is anything to go on. The bookmakers still treat them with respect though and they were 15/4 with Mbet who were first out with their updated prices. I am not as confident and think they may lack the quality in the backline (outside of Carter) to go all the way

Take Bet Today? NO

3 units Waratahs Top Aus side at 2/1

I thought this was a value price and after week 1 it looked like being a decent call. The Waratahs were poor against the Stormers though and with the Reds now in the reckoning as well I would say we are a bit behind the 8 ball here. The 2/1 is still on offer so there has certainly not been a lot of ground lost.

Take Bet Today? MAYBE

10 units Bulls to win at 13/2

This pick was made after week 1 when the Bulls impressed with their win over the Cheetahs but were amazingly still 13/2 at GreatOdds. Now 7/2 at Betxchange it looks like a bet that will keep us interested till the death.

On Goodforthegame we also preview and offer suggested bets on the individual matches week by week in our rugby section and after 2 weeks I have invested 33 units with a nett profit of 10.4 units.

When time is tight either because kickoff is near or the early prices are out on the Monday and there is value about I suggest bets in our Forum. Here I have invested 30 units for a profit of 8 units so all in all it looks a solid enough start for Super 14 2010.

By the way there was plenty of activity on site yesterday with Mbet out early with their Week 3 prices. To see what I and others fancied you can click here.

2 RUGBY FANS GO FOR 20K CASH BONUS

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BEST BETS

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