|
 A fresh Wallabies side takes on a desperate Springbok XV in Brisbane on Saturday with the visitors looking to overturn a 7 match losing streak in the city. Bookmakers are struggling to separate the pair but have the home team slight favourites.
Australia has all but been written off for the Tri Nations with their price out to 7/1 from 9/2 despite not having played their first match yet. The reason is that New Zealand bagged full points in both home matches against South Africa and it will take a very special effort to catch them, from what has in recent history been a pretty ordinary Wallabies team.
The Boks by contrast have gone 8/1 for the title on the back of a couple of serious hidings in both Auckland and Wellington. They look a shadow of the side that dominated last years tournament and it remains to be seen as to whether they can prove that there is nothing more dangerous than a wounded Bok or whether they are mentally down and on the verge of folding?
In team news Robbie Deans welcomes back Robinson at prop and Sharpe at lock while in the backline Genia has recovered and resumes his deadly partnership with flyhalf Cooper. Giteau starts at 12 and will I understand handle the kicking duties.
HISTORY
The Boks have lost 7 on the trot in Brisbane dating back to 1993 and the average score over this time has been 33-13 to Australia. Last year they arrived with the intention of wrapping up the title but failed to justify 5.5 point favouritism going down by 15 to a fired up home side.
Last 4 matches in Brisbane
2009: 21-6 (Boks started -5.5)
2006: 49-0
2003: 29-9
2002: 38-27
BETTING
Australia 9/10 at World Sports Betting
Draw 28/1 at Mbet
South Africa 23/20 at Mbet
Handicap
South Africa +1.5 at 9/10 with Victor Chandler
Australia -0.5 at 9/10 with World Sports Betting
BETTING ANGLE
This is certainly a tough game to call and punters have to weigh up the Boks mindset as well as the fact that they are now playing their 3rd match in 3 weekends on the road. Australia by contrast is fresh but could be a bit rusty not having seen action since they beat Ireland by 7 points nearly a month ago.
I am leaning towards the home side here with the combination of history and the Boks recent lack of form enough to sway me. I am pleased with the Bok changes in general although Kankowski has still to convince me and the 10-12 axis remains a concern for me.
The Wallabies don’t have a tight five that will strike fear into Bok hearts but they should win enough decent ball to allow the magical Genia and Cooper to make their mark.
BET: 3 units Australia win at 9/10 with World Sports Betting
From a spreads perspective my first instinct would be to perhaps buy Australian points and or shirts given that Cooper and Genia are on their home ground where they have scored and set up many tries in the S14. The Boks defense has also been breached 8 times in 2 matches however there is the threat of rain about and this needs to be taken into account.
I will post any bets I take in this thread in our Forum where other punters will be sharing views ahead of the Tri Nations and Currie Cup clashes.
The weekends Currie Cup Previews will be posted in our Rugby section.
Learn about handicap betting in our Free2Play Currie Cup handicap competition – enter at www.sportspicks.co.za
MAILING LIST
E-mail me
This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
to get on my mailing list (just title it Mailing List) – I generally send out 1 e-mail per week with my best or value bet and links to major previews.
You can follow Brent on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/brentgraham
|
