|
 The Lions may have lost all 4 of their opening matches but they have beaten the last 3 handicaps and bookmakers are once again giving them a big start with 15.5 points the average line for their trip to Sydney.
The Waratahs were very lucky to hold on for a win against the Sharks last week and it was quite something to hear the home team’s supporters booing their side for a really negative attitude. They actually lost ground when playing against 13 men at one point and strangely enough their best performance of the season came at Loftus in a losing cause against the Bulls.
The Lions have tightened up on defense since that crazy 65-72 defeat to the Chiefs but for all their efforts they have not looked like winning a game and were probably saved by the weather against the Brumbies last weekend and managed to stay in touch.
TEAM NEWS
The Waratahs have named an unchanged side while the Lions have reverted to something resembling their first XV with Spencer returning from injury and the pack being beefed up.
Full details and late changes can be tracked on SARugby.com’s team sheet page.
HISTORY
Head to Head Waratahs at home
2008: 26-3
2006: 50-3
2004: 46-10
The Waratahs have won all 6 meetings in Sydney by an average of 29 points with their smallest victory being a 15 point win back in 1998.
Overall the teams have played 12 times with the Lions only winning once and that was back in Johannesburg in 2001. The Waratahs have won 8 in a row since then including a 38-33 win in Johannesburg last year.
The Waratahs have a 25% handicap strike rate this season while the Lions are on 75% (3 from 4)
BETTING
Waratahs 1/9 at GreatOdds and World of Sport
Draw 33/1
Lions 8/1 at Mbet and Betxchange
Handicap
Waratahs -15.5 at 1/1 with World of Sport
Lions +16.5 at 9/10 with Betxchange
  
 
VERDICT
All of the early money has been for the Waratahs with the -10.5 on offer when Mbet came out with their early prices being snapped up. The line has gradually been pushed out to its current point at around the 15 point mark and it is hard argue against the fact that the value has gone.
Having said that I have a feeling the Waratahs are going to hit their straps in their 2nd week back home and if pressed to have a punt on this one I would still go for the minus with the -15.5 at 1/1 with World of Sport the best way to punt it.
I am rather going to wait for the spreads though as I fancy the trend of boring Waratahs matches to end and may look to go high or buy their shirt numbers and/or points. I will be keeping a close eye on conditions though as some showers are forecasts which should they materialize will mean all bets are off http://weather.smh.com.au/local.jsp
If I do play the spreads or find any additional bets I will post on this thread in our Forum.
THE WEEK 5 SUPER 14 PODCAST IS ON SITE – CLICK HERE TO LISTEN
Kick Off: 12 March, 10:40 SA Time – Sydney
NEW TO BETTING?
Practice for free with us in our handicap competition at www.sportspicks.co.za
BEST BETS
Get on my mailing list – e-mail me at
This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
with the title “Best Bets” and you can follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/brentgraham
Follow Goodforthegame on FACEBOOK – Click here to become a fan and twitter at http://www.twitter.com/goodforthegame
|
