The Brumbies play their first Super Rugby match under Jake White when they host the Force in Canberra on Friday and the home team is shaping up as my bet of the weekend.

The Brumbies had a woeful 2011 campaign but they were quick to bring Jake White in and he in turn wasted no time in surrounding himself with old Brumbies favourites like Gregan and Larkham while at the same time getting rid of the deadwood.

The Force are my tip for the Wooden Spoon and while they have managed to persuade a few journeymen type players to come to Perth they have been unable to adequately replace James O’Conner and thanks to Willie Ripia’s long fingers 7’s specialist James Stannard looks set to start in the 10 jersey.

Team News

This preview is coming out early mainly because I don’t think the prices will last but teams are still to be announced.

Head to Head Brumbies at home

2011: 19-27 (Force by 8, 46 points)

2009: 16-25 (Force by 9, 41 points)

2007: 14-12 (Brumbies by 2, 26 points)

In the reverse fixture last season the sides played to a 13-13 draw and after 7 matches at all grounds they both have 3 victories. Matches between the sides average 38 points each.

BETTING

Brumbies 15/20 at Voltbet

Draw 28/1 at World Sports Betting

Force 18/10 at World Sports Betting

Handicap

Brumbies -3.5 at 19/20 with Betxchange

Force +6.5 at 10/11 with World Sports Betting

BETTING ANGLE

I always promise myself that I won’t get too heavily involved in the opening week and then I see the quotes and jump in head first.

I am really strong on the Brumbies this week and my one worry is that virtually every punter seems to agree. I say this because it almost gives you the feeling you must be missing something but lets hope that’s not the case and that punters get off to a flyer.

I took -4 Brumbies at Sportsbet last week and the line has shifted to -6 but Betxchange are dangling the -3.5 and I am going to grab some more (Voltbet actually came out -2.5 but that market froze before I could get some and I expect it will shorten or the line will move, they do have the half time cap Brumbies -0.5 and that’s also tempting).

I am a bit nervous about this young Brumbies side but warm up results suggest White is working on defense and the number of penalty kicks they took for poles suggests he wants to install a winning culture before worrying about scoring tries. As for the Force they do have the likes of Sharpe and Pocock but I just can’t have them this season and frankly I thought this would be a 7 point game.

BET: 6 units Brumbies -3.5 at 19/20 with Betxchange

Spreads and exotics watch

It is too early for spreads but Voltbet have set the fixed odds total points line at 46.5 points.

I like unders here and my reasoning is that I believe the Brumbies will defend well while I don’t think the Force offer much in attack and I can also back this up with the fact that all 3 games at this venue delivered 46 points or under and 6 of the 7 clashes at all grounds have obliged. Aussie derbies can be dour affairs and with both teams desperate to win I think we could see more of the same here.

BET: 4 units less than 46.5 points at 9/10 with Voltbet

Stay close to Goodforthegame as we cover the greatest rugby tournament in the world from a betting perspective. Betting previews on all 7 matches each week and punters already discussing the odds for week 1 in our forum.

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