The Chiefs take on the Highlanders in Hamilton on Saturday, and with a excellent record over their fellow New Zealanders it's the Chiefs who look a decent bet in the handicap markets.

2011 was another poor year for the Waikato based team, finishing bottom of the NZ conference and 10^th overall, a similar story to 2010 and yet another year were the Chiefs fans will feel their side has underperformed, especially after finishing runner-up in 2009. Sweeping squad changes during the off-season has seen a whole host of veteran players move on, including the likes of Mils Muliaina, Stephen Donald and Siti Sivivatu, however a fresh arrival of younger talent and a few key signings might be just what the Chiefs needed to get back to the level of play from 2009 and to finally fulfil some of the potential they've shown over the years.

There was no bigger player transfer in Super rugby pre-season than that of All Black Sonny-Bill Williams, who's decided to take up an offer of a season with the Chiefs after calling time on his career with the Crusaders. The recently crowned NZ heavyweight boxing champion can be impossible to stop on his day, and the Chiefs management team will be hoping he can spark their team to life as well as praying he's 100% focussed on rugby matters ahead. Possibly the better signing for the Chiefs, in my opinion at least, is that of young All Black flyhalf Aaron Cruden – a man with a great eye for a gap as well as a very decent kicking game, something the Chiefs have lacked for many years while Donald featured at 10.

Pre-season form for the Chiefs has been impressive, despite a loss against the Hurricanes last week, which could be best ignored given the soggy conditions that it was played in. A big win against the Rebels, without conceding a point, as well as a solid 38-36 victory over Saturdays opponents the Highlanders, served notice that they could start the season off far better than normal, as over the years they've become known as the team that finishes the tournament with a flurry of wins.

The Highlanders were staring at a big defeat in that pre-season match when 31-10 down but to their credit they did claw their way back into that match. However other friendly results suggest that the early parts of 2012 might be a struggle for the men from Otago – 3 losses, including heavy defeats to the Saders and Blues, can't have confidence much, and a lengthening injury list will see them kick off their challenge with a reported no less than 10 squad players unavailable for selection, including all of Colin Slade, Jarrad Hoeata, Jamie Mackintosh, Siale Piutau, Kenny Lynn, Kade Poki, Josh Bekhuis and Shaun Treeby. They will have the experience of the likes of All Blacks Adam Thompson, Jimmy Cowan and Hosea Gear to help guide them threw these first few matches with a depleted squad, and the recent signing of England loose forward James Haskell could prove a shrewd move to help give them more balance in the back row.

PAST RESULTS

The Chiefs have dominated the Highlanders in Super rugby for some time, winning 10 of the last 12 matches since 2001.

Home team first:

2011 : Chiefs 20-7 Highlanders, Highlanders 13-23 Chiefs

2010 : Chiefs 27-12 Highlanders

2009 : Highlanders 10-14 Chiefs

2008 : Chiefs 39-24 Highlanders

2007 : Highlanders 34-38 Chiefs

LATEST BETTING

Chiefs @ 5/10 with Hollywoodbets

Draw @ 28/1 with Sportsbet

Highlanders @ 5/2 with Betxchange, Sportingbet

Handicap

Chiefs -6.5 @ 10/11 with Voltbet

Highlanders +8 @ 10/11 with Sportingbet

VERDICT

There was some early interest at the beginning of the month on the Goodforthegame forum for the Chiefs -5.5 from the first handicaps priced up by SA bookies, with a number of punters, myself included, taking a view that the injury list and pre-season form of the Highlanders was going to leave them struggling in the early rounds. A couple weeks later i'm still of that opinion – the Highlanders with a fully fit squad are going to take some scalps this season, especially at home were they'll be tough to beat. However I see Feb and March being a test for their resources, and unless they prove me otherwise i'll probably be looking to oppose them each week until perhaps later in March.

As stated i'm already on the Chiefs -5.5, but with the cap only 1 point further out I still rate the Chiefs -6.5 as a very decent bet, especially given the Chiefs record against the Highlanders. I also fancy the Chiefs to start this match strongly, especially based on their pre-season matches were they got off to flyers in those two wins, and with Voltbet still offering the 2.5 minus I feel that's a very attractive punt and is worth snapping up.

BET: 5 units Chiefs -2.5 half-time handicap @ 10/11 (available at Voltbet)

You can read previews for other Super 15 matches this weekend as well as outright conference selections on the links further below, and can also see what other punters fancy in our Super rugby thread in our discussion forum.

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