The 2012 Super Rugby season is still over 3 months away but Brent Graham is quite prepared to tie money up in some “long term investments”.

The gap between the end of the Currie Cup and the start of Super Rugby seems longer than ever this year due to the fact that there are no year end internationals. The good news is that Alan Moscrop is covering the Heineken Cup and other European rugby on Goodforthegame but even at this stage I can’t help but cast my mind ahead to the greatest competition of them all.

Last year I built a really good book on the Crusaders and although they disappointed in the final against the Reds I was able to cover my stake and at least no financial harm was done although the disappointment of not winning took some time to get over.

Although there is a lot of time to go before kickoff now is the time to start building your book if you fancy a team strongly or feel that a team will shorten in the run up to the competition.

More on that later and here is the current betting:

Crusaders 7/2 at Sportsbet

Reds 9/2 at Betxchange, World Sports Betting, Sportingbet, Bet.co.za

Sharks 8/1 at Sportsbet

Stormers 9/1 at Sportingbet

Blues 9/1 at Betxchange, World Sports Betting, Hollywood and Bet.co.za

Waratahs 10/1 generally available

Bulls 14/1 at Sportingbet

Hurricanes 20/1 at Sportsbet

Chiefs 20/1 at Hollywood and Sportingbet

Brumbies 25/1 at Sportsbet

Lions 33/1 at Betxchange, World Sports Betting, Hollywood, Bet.co.za

Cheetahs 50/1 at Sportingbet

Force 50/1 at Sportingbet

Highlanders 66/1 at Sportingbet and Sportsbet

Rebels 66/1 at Sportingbet and Sportsbet

EARLY VALUE?

I think the Reds will struggle to go back to back and while they showed brilliant depth last season they are already going to be without Cooper for some time and should face an improved challenge in the Aussie conference from the Waratahs and Brumbies (under Jake White) while I also feel the Rebels will improve with the likes of O’Conner and Beale in the mix. For me the 9/2 is too short to get involved.

The Crusaders are going to be without Dan Carter and McCaw for the early part of the season (again) and while they have shown an ability to overcome this they will miss Sonny Bill Williams and Brad Thorn. They are bound to be right there but I can’t see them shortening much before kickoff.

The South African challenge is interesting and the Sharks are favoured by the bookies but they still have weaknesses to sort out at centre whereas the Stormers may well struggle in the tight 5 when the going gets tough. The Bulls have lost key players and I can’t see them contending and while the Cheetahs have not had the usual mass exit they were unable to make the Currie Cup final and it is hard to see them going all the way with virtually the same squad. The Lions are shorter than they have been for years but I think the 33/1 may be worth taking stock of. Mitchell would have had a full season and a Currie Cup victory under the belt and while they may lack Boks they have shown an ability to compete with the best South African teams have to offer. I suspect the 33/1 may look more like 25/1 come Feb 24.

The team that gets my early attention is the Blues. I am not a huge fan of Pat Lam who seems unable to bring his players to a peak at the right time but this year he has a squad with plenty of depth, skill and class (and there is talk of AB coach Henry coming in as a consultant). In come Weepu and Nonu while Wulf returns from 2 years overseas and a host of other players return from injury. They had a big problem at 10 last year but can use Weepu there if required and promising Gareth Anscombe should be an improvement on Brett and McAlister who have both moved overseas.

They made the playoffs last year with what I consider to be a weaker squad and my confident call is that there won’t be 9/1 on offer in 3 months time and I fancy they will start around the 6/1, 7/1 mark.

To translate this I am lining up a big strike on the Blues and will also start taking multiples into them while at the same time I can’t resist a smaller nibble on the Lions.

BET: 10 units Blues win at 9/1 Betxchange, World Sports Betting, Hollywood, Bet.co.za

BET: 2 units Lions win at 33/1 Betxchange, World Sports Betting, Hollywood, Bet.co.za

Many may question whether there is any value tying money up so far in advance. As a general rule I would say no, however in this case I believe that the Blues in particular may shorten so if say you took say R9000/R1000 now and could only get R7000/R1000 in February then your R1000 which would have earned around R40 in the bank would have put you in a position to make an extra R2000.

I also have some disposable punting cash in my account following a successful Currie Cup and RWC. If I draw the money out I will probably spend it and may not be in a position to bet large come next year so by getting on now I will guarantee myself a long term interest of significance although of course the wife insisted I have draw some of the funds out.

Finally I just love trying to find early value and there is no point in that if you are not prepared to put your money where your mouth is. Come on you Blues! 

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Alan Moscrop	Brent Graham	Chris Sturdy	Sean Nicholas