It’s the result no rugby team wants but rest assured there will be punters cheering on a team to finish last in Super Rugby 2012 and Brent Graham reckons there is early value in this market.

Backing a team to finish last makes me feel a bit guilty as it means cheering against a side rather than for a side which you may have backed to win the tournament. Of course this feeling of guilt lasts about 5 minutes and the “Wooden Spoon” market is actually one I really enjoy.

Before I highlight what I consider to be the early value lets take a look at the betting of teams that could possibly contend for this “honour”:

Force 3/1 Sportsbet

Cheetahs 6/1 Sportingbet

Highlanders 7/1 at World Sports Betting and Sportingbet

Rebels 8/1 at Sportingbet

Lions 9/1 World Sports Betting and Sportingbet

Brumbies 10/1 at World Sports Betting

Hurricanes 10/1 at World Sports Betting

Bulls 20/1 generally available

Note: Not all bookmakers have priced up on this market yet

BETTING ANGLE

This market became a little more complicated last year when the Conference system was introduced. It made it more likely that the weakest team in the tournament may not finish last as if they were in a weak Conference then they would potentially get to play other weak teams more often than a weaker team in a strong Conference.

There is also the fact that 2 of the teams in the opposing Conferences won’t be played at all and it can be a big advantage to avoid a side like the Crusaders for example.

The above being said I believe the Force are the weakest team in the competition this year and I reckon they will collect the Wooden Spoon.

Australian readers are welcome to close the page at this point but in my view the reality is they have the weakest Conference and the Reds benefited heavily from playing the Force and Rebels twice last year (although they may well have dropped some points the principal remains true). The worry then for Force backers is that they are in the Australian Conference but I suspect that the Rebels and Brumbies will be stronger this year and that the Force will be hard pressed against those sides even at home.

The Force have lost key player O’Conner to the Rebels and their build up has been disrupted with the resignation of their flyhalf Ripia who was caught with his hands in his team mates kit bags.

Their regular rivals in this market the Lions and Cheetahs appear to be stronger than before and the Rebels last years “winners” have also strengthened. I make the New Zealand teams the Hurricanes and Highlanders big runners but they should get more at home than the Force although cover on the Canes is being considered.

In short I expect them to struggle and they play 4 of their 1^st 5 matches away against Australian opposition so there is every chance they will prop up the table early and morale could drop – offering trading chances of course.

In my view the 3/1 won’t last (generally 2/1 already) and I am climbing in boots and all. I am tempted to wait for Betxchange who have put their templates up and show the Force at 33/10 but this may change prior to going live so it’s a confident call at 3/1 with Sportsbet for me.

BET: 10 units Force to come last at 3/1 with Sportsbet

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