The first of Sunday's Rugby World Cup quarter finals comes from Marseille where unbeaten England start as favourites for their clash with Fiji
England v Fiji, Sunday 15th October, Marseille, KO 17:00 (South African time)
Referee: Mathieu Raynal (France)
Assistant Referees: Nic Berry (Australia), Pierre Brousset (France)
TMO: Ben Whitehouse (Wales)
Weather Forecast – Marseille
England:
England's form coming into this tournament was very questionable but they topped Pool D with a 100% record, finishing 4 points clear of Argentina with Japan third and Samoa fourth whilst Chile never got in a blow.
George Ford was responsible for all of England's points (6 penalties and 3 drop goals) in their opening round 27-10 victory over Argentina, a game they played almost entirely with 14 men. Next up they came through their clash with Japan with a 35-12 victory, a win which put them in total control of the group.
England then demolished Chile 71-0 with Henry Arundell scoring 5 of their 11 tries to seal a quarter final place. England were then given a huge scare in their final pool match against Samoa where they were 14-8 down at half time and a late try saw them edge home 18-17.
England are trading at around 12/1 to win the tournament with BoyleSports and they are 7/20 to reach the semi finals and 42/10 to reach the final. (Note, outright odds may change after Saturday's quarter finals)
Fiji:
Fiji were the subject of pre-tournament outright market support in Pool C and despite losing 2 of their matches they justified the confidence in finishing as runners up to Wales with the Wallabies the main casualties in third and Portugal and Georgia were fourth and fifth.
Fiji opened their campaign against Wales who hung on to claim a 32-26 victory with Fiji's comeback from 32-14 down at one stage falling just short as they blew a chance for a late try. Fiji earned 2 bonus points from the defeat to Wales and their 22-15 victory over Australia in their second outing put them in a very strong position to qualify.
They made hard work of it though surviving a scare in their Round 4 clash with Georgia which they eventually won 17-12 having come from 9-0 down at half time. Fiji needed only a losing bonus point from their final pool match against Portugal and they secured it despite a shock 24-23 defeat with Portugal getting up to win with a late try.
In the RWC outright betting Fiji are 46/1 shots with BoyleSports to win the tournament, 22/10 to make it to the semi finals and 11/1 to reach the final.
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Recent Head to Head
England went down 30-22 to Fiji at Twickenham in a RWC warm up match in August this year.
Team News
England: 15 Marcus Smith, 14 Jonny May, 13 Joe Marchant, 12 Manu Tuilagi, 11 Elliot Daly, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Tom Curry, 6 Courtney Lawes, 5 Ollie Chessum, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Jamie George, 1 Ellis Genge
Replacements: 16 Theo Dan, 17 Joe Marler, 18 Kyle Sinckler, 19 George Martin, 20 Billy Vunipola, 21 Danny Care, 22 George Ford, 23 Ollie Lawrence
Fiji: 15 Ilaisa Droasese, 14 Vinaya Habosi, 13 Waisea Nayacalevu (captain), 12 Josua Tuisova, 11 Semi Radradra, 10 Vilimoni Botitu, 9 Frank Lomani, 8 Viliame Mata, 7 Levani Botia, 6 Lekima Tagitagivalu, 5 Albert Tuisue, 4 Isoa Nasilasila, 3 Luke Tagi, 2 Tevita Ikanivere, 1 Eroni Mawi
Replacements: 16 Sam Matavesi, 17 Peni Ravai, 18 Mesake Doge, 19 Meli Derenalagi, 20 Vilive Miramira, 21 Simione Kuruvoli, 22 Iosefo Masi, 23 Sireli Maqala
The Betting
England -7.5 points at 9/10
Fiji +8.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
I handicapped this game -10.5 England and it opened -6.5 and has shifted to -7.5. I suspect it could continue to shift out and am tempted to take the -7.5 currently on offer.
I just can’t shake this feeling that Fiji have a big performance left in them though and am going to wait for teams to be announced before getting involved.
The total points line is set at 46.5 which looks about right.
I will return with my suggested bet(s) later in the week.
Update: 14 October 09h50
I was once Owen Farrells biggest fan and actually had him first in my World XV lineup but I just don’t think he is the same player. I said before the RWC England should back Ford and after the Argentina performance I thought they would.
I think they have made a mistake and now the question is whether Fiji can take advantage?
They looked tired against Portugal but they had a very emotional week and I am expecting them to be more like the Fiji who played Australia and beat them in the Pool stages.
Stay close to our forum thread where I will post any additional bets and other punters share their plays
See what the lads on our live betting show thought of this game
BET: 5 units Fiji +8.5 points at 1/1 at Betxchange (Using the Boost , 5k max, can’t use in multiples)
BET: 2 units Fiji win at 28/10 at Betxchange (not sure if I will be brave enough to call this on Superbru)
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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