Marseille is the venue for the first of Saturday's Rugby World Cup quarter finals when Wales take on Argentina and the Welsh start as slight favourites with the bookmakers.
Wales v Argentina, Saturday 14th October, Marseille, KO 17:00 (South African time)
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant Referees: Karl Dickson (England), Andrea Piardi (Italy)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)
Weather Forecast – Marseille
Wales:
Wales topped Pool C with a 100% record, landing bonus points in 3 of their 4 games and their tally of 19 log points was 8 more than Fiji who edged out the Wallabies for the runners up spot.
Wales started with a 32-26 victory over Fiji although they rode their luck at the end of the game when a Fiji fightback came up just short. Wales then beat Portugal 28-8 in their second match and their stand out result was 40-6 hiding of the Wallabies in a game that was priced up pretty much as “choice” by the bookmakers. In their final group match against Georgia Wales came through with a 43-19 victory to maintain their 100% record and seal top spot in the pool.
In the outright betting markets Wales are now trading at around 22/1 to win the RWC title with BoyleSports and they are priced at 52/10 to reach the final and 0.58/1 to reach the semi's.
Argentina:
Argentina's route to the knockout rounds was less straight forward as they finished as runners up to England in Pool D.
Los Pumas lost a key opening game to England 27-10, a match that was priced up as choice by the bookmakers and England played pretty much all of it with 14 men. They bounced back with a vital 19-10 win over Samoa in their second outing and then thrashed Chile 59-5 to pick up their first bonus point of the tournament and set up an “eliminator” with Japan. Argentina were 12.5 point favourites for that clash with the Brave Blossoms and they won 39-27 with Mateo Carreras scoring 3 of their 5 tries.
In the outright betting markets Argentina are now trading at around 42/1 to win the RWC title with BoyleSports and they are priced at 78/10 to reach the final and 14/10 to reach the semi's.
Recent Head to Head
Nov 22 INT Cardiff Wales 20-13 Argentina
Jul 21 INT Cardiff Wales 11-33 Argentina
Jul 21 INT Cardiff Wales 20-20 Argentina
Team News
Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Louis Rees Zammit, 13 George North, 12 Nick Tompkins, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Tommy Reffell, 6 Jac Morgan, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Gareth Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Dewi Lake, 17 Corey Domachowski, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Dafydd Jenkins, 20 Christ Tshiunza, 21 Tomos Williams, 22 Sam Costelow, 23 Rio Dyer
Argentina: 15 Juan Cruz Mallia, 14 Emiliano Beffelli, 13 Lucio Clinti, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Santiago Carreras, 9 Tomas Cubelli, 8 Facundo Isa, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Francisco Gomez, 2 Julian Montoya (captain), 1 Thomas Gallo.
Replacements: 16 Agustin Creevy, 17 Joel Sclavi, 18 Eduardo Bello, 19 Matias Alemanno, 20 Rodrigo Bruni, 21 Lautaro Bazan Velez, 22 Nicolas Sanchez, 23 Matias Moroni
The Betting
Wales -4.5 points at 9/10
Argentina +4.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
I handicapped this game Wales -7.5 and the bookies opened -2.5 and it has shifted out slightly to -3.5 in the early going.
For whatever reason Argentina have failed to replicate their Rugby Championship form in this RWC and if they can do so they are in with a real shout.
Wales though have impressed me and I like the balance of the side. They have a coach that knows how to play knock out rugby and if pressed I would back them to win by 4 points or more.
The points line is set at 44.5 and I am going to ponder this during the week – it looks about right.
No early play for me and the suggested bet will be posted later in the week.
14 October 11h20
I expect this to be a low scoring game and was torn between the under 44.5 points at Wales to beat the handicap. In the end I am siding with the Welsh who I think have a stronger team than punters and bookmakers give them credit for.
BET: 5 units Wales -4.5 at 1/1 at Betxchange (Using the Boost , 5k max, can’t use in multiples)
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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