The Lions return to United Rugby Championship action on Johannesburg on Saturday when log leaders Leinster provide the opposition.
Lions v Leinster, Saturday 20th April, Johannesburg, KO 15:00 (South African time)
Referee: Gianluca Gnecchi (Italy)
Assistant referees: Morne Ferreira (South Africa) and Christopher Allison (South Africa)
TMO: Andrea Piardi (Italy)
Weather Forecast – Johannesburg
Lions:
The Lions return to URC action in eleventh place with a record of 6 wins and 7 defeats. The middle of the table is congested and they are just 1 point off a play off spot.
In Round 13 they were beaten 36-21 away to the Ospreys but a round earlier they put in a terrific shift to come away from Galway with a 38-14 bonus point win over Connacht
The Lions most recent URC home game saw them thrash the Sharks 40-10 whilst one earlier match against Irish opposition saw the Lions go down 24-17 at Ulster in Round 5.
Since their last URC match the Lions were in Challenge Cup Round of 16 action away to Benetton on the 6th April and they bowed out 27-17.
In the outright betting the Lions are 86/1 shots to win the tournament with BoyleSports
Leinster:
Leinster continue to set the pace at the top of the standings with 11 wins and 2 defeats against their name and they come into R14 5 points clear of second placed Glasgow.
In Round 13 Leinster pulled away from the Bulls in the second half to run out 47-14 winners in Dublin. Their 2 defeats this season came in Glasgow in the opening round and in Round 9 they were edged out 22-21 by Ulster in a home fixture. Leinster also beat the Sharks 34-13 in Dublin back in Round 2 and after this they will visit the Stormers.
Leinster have played 2 Champions Cup matches ovand they were 36-22 winners at home to Leicester Tigers in the R016 before beating La Rocjelle 40-13 in
Dublin in the quarters last weekend.
In the outright betting to win the URC title BoyleSports make Leinster 0.54/1 favourites.
Team News
Lions: 15 Quan Horn, 14 Richard Kriel, 13 Erich Cronje, 12 Marius Louw (c), 11 Edwill van der Merwe, 10 Sanele Nohamba, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Francke Horn, 7 Emmanuel Tshituka, 6 JC Pretorius, 5 Ruan Delport, 4 Willem Alberts, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 PJ Botha, 1 Morgan Naude
Replacements: 16 Jaco Visagie, 17 JP Smith, 18 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 19 Reinhard Nothnagel, 20 Sibusiso Sangweni, 21 Nico Steyn, 22 Jordan Hendrikse, 23 Henco van Wyk
Leinster: 15 Ciarán Frawley, 14 Rob Russell, 13 Liam Turner, 12 Charlie Ngatai, 11 Andrew Osborne, 10 Harry Byrne, 9 Luke McGrath, 8 Max Deegan, 7 Scott Penny (c), 6 Diarmuid Mangan, 5 Jason Jenkins, 4 Brian Deeny, 3 Thomas Clarkson, 2 Lee Barron, 1 Cian Healy
Replacements: 16 John McKee, 17 Michael Milne, 18 Michael Ala’alatoa, 19 Ross Molony, 20 Rhys Ruddock, 21 Cormac Foley, 22 San Prendergast, 23 Ben Brownlee
The Betting,
Lions -1.5 points at 9/10
Leinster +1.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
I was reluctant to handicap this game as I knew team news would be critical. The Lions opened +7.5 offshore and then quickly went +1.5 with the realization that Leinster would likely leave their top players at home.
The Lions are now -1.5 but I am not getting involved on the match result or handicap and will rather turn to the points lines.
I was expecting a points line of around 57.5 for this one and the over 52.5 currently on offer surely won’t last. If as expected it moves out I would still suggest a play up to around the 55.5 level.
BET: 6 units over 52.5 points at 87/100 at Pokerbet*
*Pokerbet are generally 1st to market with rugby points lines – click here to open an account
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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