Super Rugby Week 9, URC Week 14, Gallagher Week 15 + other rugby 19-21 April

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2 weeks 1 day ago #1 by Brent Graham
The Champions Cup quarters were good to me with nice wins on Leinster (Newsletter Best Bet) and the Saints and a smaller overs win in Toulouse game.

Bordeaux sadly cost me the newsletter acca and also the 5/1 early bird acca I took when the betting opened.

Overall nicely up for the weekend as although my Super Rugby picks were not great I could not watch the games and so didn't get too involved.

We have 4 Super Rugby games this weekend and here are my projected handicaps

Drua +11.5 v Hurricanes (taking place in Suva)
Reds -4.5 v Highlanders
Blues -11.5 v Brumbies
Force +9.5 v Crusaders

The URC is back and I am not going to cap as think team selections will be massive

I suspect the likes of Sharks (away to Glasgow) might rest players and would not be surprised if Leinster sent a B team \

There is also Gallagher Prem action

Have a great week and if you are not on my newsletter yet here is the link bit.ly/gftgnewsletter - you know what to do

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2 weeks 7 hours ago #2 by Brent Graham
Opening Super Rugby lines out at WSB - here is how they compare to mine

Drua +11.5 (+11.5) v Hurricanes
Reds -4.5 (-7.5) v Highlanders
Blues -11.5 (-10.5) v Brumbies
Force +9.5 (+15.5) v Crusaders

3 points diff on Reds game but think I may out on this one

6 points on Force game and going to take some 15.5 - Force have put in some good performances and Crusaders still not convincing for me

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2 weeks 6 hours ago #3 by TheAdmiral
Cardiff +14 my early fancy

I see lions have gone from +7 to +1 vs Leinster with most ppl predicting a weak Leinster team.

I think there’s a chances that we send over a decent team to try get 4/5 points vs Lions as we are only 5 points clear at the top of the log which decides home advantage throughout the playoffs. I think we’ll sack off the stormers game next week as euro sf vs Northampton is the week after so I’d expect us to try get a good win vs Lions this week before sending the better players home to prepare. Keep an eye on socials to try and get an indication of the strength of the travelling squad.

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1 week 6 days ago #4 by Brent Graham
Here are the current URC lines with a couple of major line movements noted

Glasgow -16.5 v Sharks - opened -11.5
Ulster -14.5 v Cardiff
Benetton -14.5 v Dragons - opened -11.5
Lions +1.5 v Leinster - opened +7.5
Bulls -12.5 v Munster
Stormers -18.5 v Ospreys
Connacht -16.5 v Zebre
Edinburgh -18.5 v Scarlets

Super Rugby caps are stable

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1 week 5 days ago #5 by Pablo
Vannes +2.5 ha @1.80 2u

Montauban video analyst and another two members of the staff packed their bags this week, situation in the camp in very bad and pesimistic. Bosviel (their best player and kicker, without him they´d already been relegated) won´t play as well as Mathy (their backup kicker), its what my friend from Montauban told me. He told me the main feeling in the town is the team will get relegated.

Vannes may send a mixed team (next week they receive Rouen before the break so some rotation makes sense) but even that would be enough to win in Montauban.
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1 week 4 days ago #6 by Brent Graham
Hi guys,

Looks like one of those weeks when team news is critical and since the early moves things have been quiet

A quick look at line moves since my past post

Super Rugby
Some support for Drua now +9.5 from +11.5
Force has moved from +15.5 to +13.5

In the URC
Money for Cardiff in to +11.5 from +14.5
Lions now favourites v Leinster at -2.5 from +1.5

Look forward to The Mossmans comments on tonights show

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1 week 4 days ago #7 by Pablo
Provence -10.5 @1.806 1u

Big rotation MDM but even that team they fields is not that bad, although I see this line valuable.

May be a big home win but medium confidence.
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1 week 4 days ago #8 by Mossman
The weather forecast for the Blues v Brumbies in Auckland on Sat night looks bad.
Under 53.5 (or 54.5 if you can find it) could be a decent play.
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1 week 4 days ago #9 by Pablo
Glasgow -16.5 ha @1.80 2u

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1 week 4 days ago #10 by Brent Graham
I like that unders play in the Blues game Mossman - was also looking at recent matches and last 3 all been 45 or less

THE HANDICAP is live tonight at 21h00

Set a reminder on You Tube


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1 week 3 days ago #11 by Brent Graham
Another great chat with Nathan,

Must say the over 52.5 points in Lions game is knocking hard on the door of the Best Bet newsletter

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1 week 3 days ago #12 by Brent Graham
Lions v Leinster Betting Preview

Forget the handicap over 52.5 for me - can't see this line holding up

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1 week 3 days ago #13 by southpaw
Damn can’t bet at Pokerbet. That lions leinster points line looks golden

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1 week 3 days ago #14 by southpaw
Sharks over 13.5 pts @ evens

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1 week 3 days ago #15 by Stoossy

southpaw wrote: Damn can’t bet at Pokerbet. That lions leinster points line looks golden


in a month or so none of us can punt with them any more ( closing down )

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1 week 3 days ago #16 by Brent Graham
Will be posting Super Rugby bets and remaining (non SA URC games in this article

Like unders in Suva (59.5 at time of posting now 58.5) and going overs at 57.5 in Brisbane although really just for an interest

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1 week 3 days ago - 1 week 3 days ago #17 by Wager Warlock
With quote below
Last edit: 1 week 3 days ago by Wager Warlock.

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1 week 3 days ago #18 by Wager Warlock

Stoossy wrote:

southpaw wrote: Damn can’t bet at Pokerbet. That lions leinster points line looks golden


in a month or so none of us can punt with them any more ( closing down )


I think you might be mistaking them with Palacebet

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1 week 3 days ago #19 by shaft

Wager Warlock wrote:

Stoossy wrote:

southpaw wrote: Damn can’t bet at Pokerbet. That lions leinster points line looks golden


in a month or so none of us can punt with them any more ( closing down )


I think you might be mistaking them with Palacebet


What's the story with Palacebet? I know Sun International is taking over Peermont but it was mentioned they would take over the Palacebet operations too. It's a shame they had good markets and prices.

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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1 week 3 days ago #20 by shaft
After the Jordie announcement in the week I think he'll want to show he's the man. Bit of value in this for me.

Jordie Barrett anytime try scorer @ 15/4

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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1 week 3 days ago - 1 week 3 days ago #21 by Chiefie
I went under 60.5 in the drua hurricanes game.

Like a psychopath.

I look back at bets and think I must be insane.

Going point a minute here.

Going to end up with 80 points in this game.
Last edit: 1 week 3 days ago by Chiefie.

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1 week 3 days ago #22 by Jameson

Chiefie wrote: I went under 60.5 in the drua hurricanes game.

Like a psychopath.

I look back at bets and think I must be insane.

Going point a minute here.

Going to end up with 80 points in this game.


Thought you had got away with that but then a couple of quick trys there - could be close!

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1 week 3 days ago #23 by Matador

shaft wrote: After the Jordie announcement in the week I think he'll want to show he's the man. Bit of value in this for me.

Jordie Barrett anytime try scorer @ 15/4


Great call! :beer
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1 week 3 days ago #24 by Chiefie

Jameson wrote:

Chiefie wrote: I went under 60.5 in the drua hurricanes game.

Like a psychopath.

I look back at bets and think I must be insane.

Going point a minute here.

Going to end up with 80 points in this game.


Thought you had got away with that but then a couple of quick trys there - could be close!


Second half comes right. Finally.

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1 week 3 days ago #25 by R3V3R3NT_
LMAO I was sitting on canes over 33.5. God bless them for not taping and kicking it out at the end there.

Chiefie wrote:

Jameson wrote:

Chiefie wrote: I went under 60.5 in the drua hurricanes game.

Like a psychopath.

I look back at bets and think I must be insane.

Going point a minute here.

Going to end up with 80 points in this game.


Thought you had got away with that but then a couple of quick trys there - could be close!


Second half comes right. Finally.

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1 week 3 days ago #26 by Jameson
I'm going to need 40 pts scored in the 2nd half of the Reds game for my bet to win.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

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1 week 3 days ago #27 by Chiefie

Jameson wrote: I'm going to need 40 pts scored in the 2nd half of the Reds game for my bet to win.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA


Counted about 4 tries butchered from 2m out.

Shit show.

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1 week 3 days ago - 1 week 3 days ago #28 by Chiefie

Chiefie wrote:

Jameson wrote: I'm going to need 40 pts scored in the 2nd half of the Reds game for my bet to win.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA


Counted about 4 tries butchered from 2m out.

Shit show.


10 minutes of highlanders attack. 0 points.

Praying they go into administration.
Last edit: 1 week 3 days ago by Chiefie.

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1 week 3 days ago #29 by Naidoo

shaft wrote:

Wager Warlock wrote:

Stoossy wrote:

southpaw wrote: Damn can’t bet at Pokerbet. That lions leinster points line looks golden


in a month or so none of us can punt with them any more ( closing down )


I think you might be mistaking them with Palacebet


What's the story with Palacebet? I know Sun International is taking over Peermont but it was mentioned they would take over the Palacebet operations too. It's a shame they had good markets and prices.


I think they decided to close down Palacebet and keep Sunbet as their sole online betting platform.

Twitter handle @vinolin_naidoo
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1 week 3 days ago - 1 week 3 days ago #30 by Jameson
Ulcer v Cardiff tonight. Ulcer will be without 4 of their internationals and haven't been very good recently so I've put my life savings on Cardiff +8.

Might have a go for the straight win too - Ulcer are there for the taking! :-o

EDIT: Adamson is the ref though - one of the biggest homers on the scene and will no doubt penalise the Cardiff forwards out of the game in the 2nd half .....
Last edit: 1 week 3 days ago by Jameson.
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1 week 2 days ago #31 by Brad Breath

Pablo wrote: Vannes +2.5 ha @1.80 2u


Nice Pablo :beer :beer :beer
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1 week 2 days ago #32 by shaft
Blues vs Brumbies

First 10 minutes under 0.5 tries @ 11/10

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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1 week 2 days ago #33 by Chiefie

Jameson wrote: Ulcer v Cardiff tonight. Ulcer will be without 4 of their internationals and haven't been very good recently so I've put my life savings on Cardiff +8.

Might have a go for the straight win too - Ulcer are there for the taking! :-o

EDIT: Adamson is the ref though - one of the biggest homers on the scene and will no doubt penalise the Cardiff forwards out of the game in the 2nd half .....


I had £10 at 15-1 on Thomas young to score a try anytime. So that’s £150 to win.

Fucking had the ball kicked out his hands in the act of scoring.

Fuck.

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1 week 2 days ago #34 by Chiefie

Chiefie wrote:

Jameson wrote: Ulcer v Cardiff tonight. Ulcer will be without 4 of their internationals and haven't been very good recently so I've put my life savings on Cardiff +8.

Might have a go for the straight win too - Ulcer are there for the taking! :-o

EDIT: Adamson is the ref though - one of the biggest homers on the scene and will no doubt penalise the Cardiff forwards out of the game in the 2nd half .....


I had £10 at 15-1 on Thomas young to score a try anytime. So that’s £150 to win.

Fucking had the ball kicked out his hands in the act of scoring.

Fuck.


And to cap it off. I had Cabango to score 3 tries to win £170. Had a tried chalked off him on 78 min.

And had over 38.5 points. Also fucked.

How the fuck has the TMO called that a knock on.

Never had such rotten luck in 20 mins in my life.

Fuck Mike Adamson. Little gimp weirdo.

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1 week 2 days ago #35 by Laraxwell
@ Pablo

Great stuff - great calls on the French Pro 2
I followed both

Well done!

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1 week 2 days ago - 1 week 2 days ago #36 by Kirky

Pablo wrote: Provence -10.5 @1.806 1u

Big rotation MDM but even that team they fields is not that bad, although I see this line valuable.

May be a big home win but medium confidence.

Boom it landed just like Vannes did.

I got a few permutations right based on your valuable info, so thank you very much Amigo :)

I missed the mother-load by the Grenoble win, but I did think they could beat Biarritz when I took the punts, so my bad.

Any insider info on Top 14 ?
What I have is all home teams except for Oyonnax / racing 92 ?
Last edit: 1 week 2 days ago by Kirky.

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1 week 2 days ago #37 by Jameson

Chiefie wrote:

Jameson wrote: Ulcer v Cardiff tonight. Ulcer will be without 4 of their internationals and haven't been very good recently so I've put my life savings on Cardiff +8.

Might have a go for the straight win too - Ulcer are there for the taking! :-o

EDIT: Adamson is the ref though - one of the biggest homers on the scene and will no doubt penalise the Cardiff forwards out of the game in the 2nd half .....


I had £10 at 15-1 on Thomas young to score a try anytime. So that’s £150 to win.

Fucking had the ball kicked out his hands in the act of scoring.

Fuck.


You and Cardiff were robbed dude. Its illegal to kick the ball in that situation (I think!) .....

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1 week 2 days ago #38 by Jameson

Chiefie wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

Jameson wrote: Ulcer v Cardiff tonight. Ulcer will be without 4 of their internationals and haven't been very good recently so I've put my life savings on Cardiff +8.

Might have a go for the straight win too - Ulcer are there for the taking! :-o

EDIT: Adamson is the ref though - one of the biggest homers on the scene and will no doubt penalise the Cardiff forwards out of the game in the 2nd half .....


I had £10 at 15-1 on Thomas young to score a try anytime. So that’s £150 to win.

Fucking had the ball kicked out his hands in the act of scoring.

Fuck.


And to cap it off. I had Cabango to score 3 tries to win £170. Had a tried chalked off him on 78 min.

And had over 38.5 points. Also fucked.

How the fuck has the TMO called that a knock on.

Never had such rotten luck in 20 mins in my life.

Fuck Mike Adamson. Little gimp weirdo.


I've always laughed when people call officiating corrupt - but bugger me, this is a serious contender. Ignored Ulcer knock on in build up to their try and then do that to Cabango. Very tough call - didnt even look like it went forward even if the Cardiff player actually touched it!

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1 week 2 days ago #39 by Jameson

Mossman wrote: The weather forecast for the Blues v Brumbies in Auckland on Sat night looks bad.
Under 53.5 (or 54.5 if you can find it) could be a decent play.


Looking at the rain radar, main rain is clearing now 1 hour before KO. I've gone over 46.5 :-o

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1 week 2 days ago #40 by Chiefie

Jameson wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

Jameson wrote: Ulcer v Cardiff tonight. Ulcer will be without 4 of their internationals and haven't been very good recently so I've put my life savings on Cardiff +8.

Might have a go for the straight win too - Ulcer are there for the taking! :-o

EDIT: Adamson is the ref though - one of the biggest homers on the scene and will no doubt penalise the Cardiff forwards out of the game in the 2nd half .....


I had £10 at 15-1 on Thomas young to score a try anytime. So that’s £150 to win.

Fucking had the ball kicked out his hands in the act of scoring.

Fuck.


And to cap it off. I had Cabango to score 3 tries to win £170. Had a tried chalked off him on 78 min.

And had over 38.5 points. Also fucked.

How the fuck has the TMO called that a knock on.

Never had such rotten luck in 20 mins in my life.

Fuck Mike Adamson. Little gimp weirdo.


I've always laughed when people call officiating corrupt - but bugger me, this is a serious contender. Ignored Ulcer knock on in build up to their try and then do that to Cabango. Very tough call - didnt even look like it went forward even if the Cardiff player actually touched it!


So, to recap.

£150 on Thomas young try, kicked out his hand in the act of scoring. Not checked. That’s a penalty try.

£170 on Cabango to score a 3rd try. Carre possible knock on. Watched it 15 times. Still can’t say.

Ulster try. Clear knock on by Cooney. Not checked.

wtf. That level of officiating is not good enough for a professional league.

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1 week 2 days ago #41 by Chiefie

Jameson wrote:

Mossman wrote: The weather forecast for the Blues v Brumbies in Auckland on Sat night looks bad.
Under 53.5 (or 54.5 if you can find it) could be a decent play.


Looking at the rain radar, main rain is clearing now 1 hour before KO. I've gone over 46.5 :-o


Praying for you Jameson. Will celebrate if this comes in. I’m taking anyone’s success as my own now. Because I can’t get a break lol

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1 week 2 days ago #42 by southpaw
Bet builder -

Blues over 23.5
Brumbies over 12.5

@ 11/10

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1 week 2 days ago #43 by Chiefie

southpaw wrote: Bet builder -

Blues over 23.5
Brumbies over 12.5

@ 11/10


Like this! Fingers crossed. I reckon this could land by HT

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1 week 2 days ago #44 by Jameson

Chiefie wrote:

Jameson wrote:

Mossman wrote: The weather forecast for the Blues v Brumbies in Auckland on Sat night looks bad.
Under 53.5 (or 54.5 if you can find it) could be a decent play.


Looking at the rain radar, main rain is clearing now 1 hour before KO. I've gone over 46.5 :-o


Praying for you Jameson. Will celebrate if this comes in. I’m taking anyone’s success as my own now. Because I can’t get a break lol


Pray harder! Not going well - why do I keep on doing it lol

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1 week 2 days ago #45 by Pablo

Kirky wrote:

Pablo wrote: Provence -10.5 @1.806 1u

Big rotation MDM but even that team they fields is not that bad, although I see this line valuable.

May be a big home win but medium confidence.

Boom it landed just like Vannes did.

I got a few permutations right based on your valuable info, so thank you very much Amigo :)

I missed the mother-load by the Grenoble win, but I did think they could beat Biarritz when I took the punts, so my bad.

Any insider info on Top 14 ?
What I have is all home teams except for Oyonnax / racing 92 ?


Thanks mates!

Grenoble was very unexpected, I almost had BOP as a banker so imagine when I saw the final result.

I didnt check Top14 properly this week but I took a glimpse yesterday and nothing convinced me enough.

Racing going strong and Oyo almost relegated but that odd is not enough I think. I'll take a further look during the morning and try to find something valuable.
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1 week 2 days ago #46 by Pablo
Nothing confident in Top14 apart from o44.5 @1.72 in Pau-Montpellier just for 1u. Other matches pretty well set.
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1 week 2 days ago #47 by The Vann
Force v Saders
Saders may be rubbish but they still seem to defend reasonably

Force under 21.5 @ 9/10

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1 week 2 days ago #48 by Roger Rabbit
The Farce over 25.5 points at half time with Sunbet

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1 week 2 days ago #49 by Roger Rabbit

Roger Rabbit wrote: The Farce over 25.5 points at half time with Sunbet

Glad I got on the farce, the crusaders are diabolical

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1 week 2 days ago #50 by Brent Graham
Leinster over 4.5 tries 12/10

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