In this blog Brent Graham has a go at projecting the week 15 handicaps and he also looks at the latest outright betting, the log, the forecast weather and towards the end of the week a bet in each match.

 

 

 

WESTERN FORCE VS WARATAHS
Posted 23 May 23h17

This is a game where the bookies and I have different favourites. The current handicap is Force -3.5 but I had the Waratahs -2.5 favourites as I just feel that of the 2 sides they will carry more motivation with a playoff spot still possible.
The points line is currently 55.5 with cool conditions and showers look unlikely.

There has been some monet for the Force who touched -1.5 before settling at -2.5 and now -3.5.

I am going for the jugular here with a Money Line play

 

BET: 4 units Waratahs win at 1.55/1 at Betxchange

 

CHIEFS V MOANA PASIFIKA
Posted 23 May 23h10

This is a crucial game with the Chiefs looking to secure top spot while Moana are currently in the final playoff spot but have a really tough run in with he Hurricanes away next weekend.
The handicap opened -14.5 and I foorecast -17.5 and the money came as expected with -18.5 Chiefs currently out there.
The total points line is 64.5 and that seems high given how much is on this game. The Chiefs will be eyeing out a bonus point which means they also have to stop their opponents running in tries.
Conditions are cool but no rain is expected.
This quote seems a touch high

BET: 4 units Under 64.5 points at 1/1 at Betxchange

 

A CRACKING START 

Posted 23 May 13h46

The Monday acca is gone after a poor showing from the Crusaders but we cannot ask much more of a Friday morning with Highlanders unders arriving (they were much better than I expected though) and the Hurricanes delivering the win. 

That double was also the 1st of our Newsletter Bets and if you not getting the free mail what are you waiting for? 

I will be back later today with previews of the Chiefs and Force matches. 

 

REDS VS HURRICANES
Posted 22 May 23h04
I made the Hurricanes 3 points favourites for this one but the line has been stable at Reds -0.5. The Reds can guarantee playoff rugby with a win and the Hurricanes can also come close to securing a spot in the last 6.
The points line is 55.5 and onditions look like being good.
I am going with my original instinct on this one and that is the the visitors should be slight favourites.

Get my weekend betting newsletter in your inbox - https://bit.ly/gftgnewsletter - I am aiming to get this one out early Friday morning

 

BET: 4 units Hurricanes win at 1.12/1 at Pokerbet

 

 

CRUSADERS VS HIGHLANDERS
Posted 22 May 22h54

I priced this game Crusaders -17.5 and after opening -14.5 the line is slowly moving closer to my mark with some -15.5 and even -16.5 on offer.
The points line is 57.5 and in this fixture (Crusaders at home) the unders would of arrived in 5 of the last 6 meetings.
The bet I prefer though is Highlanders under 21.5 at 8/10.
I am expecting the Crusaders to be gunning hard for a bonus point and in Super Rugby Pacific that means scoring 3 tries more than your opponent.

Get my weekend betting newsletter in your inbox - https://bit.ly/gftgnewsletter - I am aiming to get this one out early Friday morning

BET: 3 units Highlanders under 21.5 points at 8/10 at Sportingbet

 

 

WEATHER LINKS FOR SRP 15

Below the latest forecast and links to updated weather- teams below weather 

 

Friday, 23 May 2025

Crusaders vs Highlanders
Kickoff: 09:05 (SA time)
Venue: Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch
• Weather Forecast: cold, cloudy but no rain forecast
• Humidity: Mid 80’s
• Forecast sourced at 16h27 on 21 May from timeanddate.com

 

Queensland Reds vs Hurricanes
Kickoff: 11:35 (SA time)
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
• Weather Forecast: Mild, temp late teens, clear
• Humidity: Mid 60’s
• Forecast sourced at 16h31on 21 May from timeanddate.com

 

Saturday, 24 May 2025

Chiefs vs Moana Pasifika
Kickoff: 09:05 (SA time)
Venue: FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton
• Weather Forecast: Cold around 10 degrees, clear
• Humidity: Mid 80’s
• Forecast sourced at 16h34 on 21 May from timeanddate.com

 

Western Force vs NSW Waratahs
Kickoff: 11:35 (SA time)
Venue: HBF Park, Perth
• Weather Forecast: Mild and clear, temp early teens
• Humidity: early to mid 70’s
• Forecast sourced at 16h36 on 21 May from timeanddate.com

 

SUPER RUGBY PACIFIC WEEK 15 TEAMS 

Posted 21 May 16h48 

 

Crusaders v Highlanders
Fri 23 May, 09:05 SAST – Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch
Referee: Todd Petrie   TMO: Richard Kelly

CRUSADERS: 1. George Bower, 2. Codie Taylor, 3. Kershawl Sykes-Martin, 4. Scott Barrett, 5. Jamie Hannah, 6. Cullen Grace, 7. Tom Christie, 8. Christian Lio-Willie, 9. Mitch Drummond, 10. Rivez Reihana, 11. Macca Springer, 12. David Havili (c), 13. Braydon Ennor, 14. Sevu Reece, 15. Johnny McNicholl
Replacements: 16. George Bell, 17. Lewis Ponini, 18. Seb Calder, 19. Quinten Strange, 20. Corey Kellow, 21. Kyle Preston, 22. James O'Connor, 23. Dallas McLeod

HIGHLANDERS: 1. Ethan de Groot (co-c), 2. Jack Taylor, 3. Saula Ma’u, 4. Mitch Dunshea, 5. Fabian Holland, 6. Te Kamaka Howden, 7. Veveni Lasaqa, 8. Sean Withy, 9. Folau Fakatava, 10. Taine Robinson, 11. Taniela Filimone, 12. Timoci Tavatavanawai (co-c), 13. Tanielu Tele'a, 14. Jonah Lowe, 15. Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens
Replacements: 16. Soane Vikena, 17. Josh Bartlett, 18. Sosefo Kautai, 19. Tai Cribb, 20. Will Stodart, 21. Adam Lennox, 22. Cameron Millar, 23. Thomas Umaga-Jensen

---

Reds v Hurricanes
Fri 23 May, 11:35 SAST – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Referee: Paul Williams   TMO: Brett Cronan

REDS: 1. Sef Fa'agase, 2. Richie Asiata, 3. Zane Nonggorr, 4. Josh Canham, 5. Ryan Smith, 6. Joe Brial, 7. Fraser McReight, 8. Harry Wilson, 9. Tate McDermott (c), 10. Tom Lynagh, 11. Filipo Daugunu, 12. Hunter Paisami, 13. Dre Paheko, 14. Lachie Anderson, 15. Jock Campbell
Replacements: 16. Josh Nasser, 17. Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 18. Trevor King, 19. Angus Blyth, 20. John Bryant, 21. Kalani Thomas, 22. Harry McLaughlin-Phillips, 23. Tim Ryan

HURRICANES: 1. Xavier Numia, 2. Asafo Aumua (co-c), 3. Tyrel Lomax, 4. Zach Gallagher, 5. Isaia Walker-Leawere, 6. Brad Shields (co-c), 7. Du'Plessis Kirifi (co-c), 8. Peter Lakai, 9. Cam Roigard, 10. Ruben Love, 11. Fatafehi Fineanganofo, 12. Peter Umaga-Jensen, 13. Billy Proctor (co-c), 14. Daniel Sinkinson, 15. Callum Harkin
Replacements: 16. Raymond Tuputupu, 17. Tevita Mafileo, 18. Pasilio Tosi, 19. Hugo Plummer, 20. Devan Flanders, 21. Ereatara Enari, 22. Brett Cameron, 23. Bailyn Sullivan

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Chiefs v Moana Pasifika
Sat 24 May, 09:05 SAST – FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton
Referee: James Doleman   TMO: Richard Kelly

CHIEFS: 1. Ollie Norris, 2. Samisoni Taukei’aho, 3. George Dyer, 4. Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 5. Tupou Vaa'i, 6. Simon Parker, 7. Luke Jacobson (c), 8. Wallace Sititi, 9. Cortez Ratima, 10. Damian McKenzie, 11. Leroy Carter, 12. Quinn Tupaea, 13. Daniel Rona, 14. Emoni Narawa, 15. Shaun Stevenson
Replacements: 16. Brodie McAlister, 17. Aidan Ross, 18. Reuben O'Neill, 19. Josh Lord, 20. Samipeni Finau, 21. Xavier Roe, 22. Josh Jacomb, 23. Gideon Wrampling

MOANA PASIFIKA: 1. Tito Tuipulotu, 2. Millennium Sanerivi, 3. Feleti Sae-Ta'ufo'ou, 4. Tom Savage, 5. Samuel Slade, 6. Miracle Faiilagi, 7. Ardie Savea (c), 8. Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa, 9. Jonathan Taumateine, 10. Patrick Pellegrini, 11. Solomon Alaimalo, 12. Danny Toala, 13. Lalomilo Lalamilo, 14. Kyren Taumoefolau, 15. Tevita Ofa
Replacements: 16. Samiuela Moli, 17. Abraham Pole, 18. Chris Apoua, 19. Allan Craig, 20. Sione Havili Talitui, 21. Melani Matavao, 22. Julian Savea, 23. Jackson Garden-Bachop

---

Western Force v NSW Waratahs
Sat 24 May, 11:35 SAST – HBF Park, Perth
Referee: Angus Gardner   TMO: Brett Cronan

FORCE: 1. Fatongia Paea, 2. Nic Dolly, 3. Tom Robertson, 4. Jeremy Williams (c), 5. Darcy Swain, 6. Will Harris, 7. Carlo Tizzano, 8. Nick Champion de Crespigny, 9. Nic White, 10. Ben Donaldson, 11. Dylan Pietsch, 12. Hamish Stewart, 13. Bayley Kuenzle, 14. Harry Potter, 15. Mac Grealy
Replacements: 16. Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17. Ryan Coxon, 18. Tiaan Tauakipulu, 19. Reed Prinsep, 20. Titi Nofoagatotoa, 21. Henry Robertson, 22. Alex Harford, 23. Kurtley Beale

WARATAHS: 1. Angus Bell, 2. David Porecki, 3. Taniela Tupou, 4. Fergus Lee-Warner, 5. Miles Amatosero, 6. Hugh Sinclair, 7. Charlie Gamble, 8. Langi Gleeson, 9. Jake Gordon (c), 10. Tane Edmed, 11. Triston Reilly, 12. Joey Walton, 13. Lalakai Foketi, 14. Andrew Kellaway, 15. Lawson Creighton
Replacements: 16. Mahe Vailanu, 17. Tom Lambert, 18. Daniel Botha, 19. Ben Grant, 20. Jamie Adamson, 21. Teddy Wilson, 22. Jack Bowen, 23. Darby Lancaster

 

WE HAVE MOVEMENT 

Posted 21 May 16h05 

There has been money for the Chiefs with the handicap moving from -13.5 to -17.5 (where I capped it) - the points line has gone from 61.5 to 64.5 

The Crusaders have edged from -14.5 to -15.5 (still shy of my -18.5) - the points line has gone from 55.5 to 57.5. 

 

Weather links and forecast to follow.  

 

ALL IS QUIET ON THE BETTING FRONT 

Posted 20 May 09h26 

The bookies appear to have got things right this week and there has been very little betting movement with the Waratahs coming in from +2.5 to +1.5 the only action. 

 

Latest handicaps and points lines below 

 

Crusaders (-14.5) v Highlanders, Points 55.5 

Reds (-0.5) v Hurricanes, Points 55.5

Chiefs (-14.5) v Moana Pasifika, Points 61.5

Force (-1.5) v Waratahs, Points 55.5 

 

 

AN EARLY 15/1 ACCA 

Posted 19 May 07h24

Given there are 3-4 point differences on all of the games between my handicaps and the bookies I am taking an early acca at WSB 

 

Crusaders -14.5 at 10/11 

Hurricanes win at 21/20

Chiefs -14.5 at 10/11

Waratahs win at 25/20

 

EARLY BET:  1 unit at 15.8/1 at WSB - you can copy this using bet code 32854180

 

SRP HANDICAPS ARE UP 

Posted 19 May 07h12 

Betxchange are up and their handicaps are in brackets next to mine 

 

Crusaders -18.5 (-14.5) v Highlanders

Reds +3.5 (-0.5) v Hurricanes

Chiefs -17.5 (-14.5) v Moana Pasifika

Force +3.5 (-2.5) v Waratahs

 

A few points difference in each game and will work out an early bet and post shortly 

 

SUPER RUGBY PACIFIC WEEK 15 PROJECTED HANDICAPS 

Posted 18 May 21h10

Every Sunday night I have a go at projecting the handicaps and then in this blog I compare them to the bookies prices on a Monday. 

 

Crusaders -18.5 v Highlanders - Highlanders have no more than a mathematical chance of qualifying

Reds +3.5 v Hurricanes - crucial game for both sides and winner secures qualification 

Chiefs -17.5 v Moana Pasifika - Chiefs will be looking for full house to retain top spot, Moana in 6th but 2 tough fixtures to end (away to Canes next week)

Force +3.5 v Waratahs - Force gone and a bye next week, Waratahs need to win this and beat the Blues to likely qualify 

 

SUPER RUGBY PACIFIC BETTING AND LOG 

Posted 18 May 20h57

With just 2 weeks of the regular season to go here is the current standings 

 

ACT Brumbies – Played: 13, Points: 43
Chiefs – Played: 12, Points: 41
Crusaders – Played: 12, Points: 41
Queensland Reds – Played: 12, Points: 32
Hurricanes – Played: 12, Points: 30
Moana Pasifika – Played: 12, Points: 28

👉 Top 6 teams qualify for playoffs

Blues – Played: 13, Points: 28
NSW Waratahs – Played: 12, Points: 22
Western Force – Played: 13, Points: 22
Fijian Drua – Played: 13, Points: 20
Highlanders – Played: 12, Points: 19

The Force and Drua can no longer qualify 

 

OUTRIGHT BETTING AFTER WEEK 14 

Here is the latest outright odds at World Sports Betting 

 

• Chiefs – 27/20

• Crusaders – 15/8

• Brumbies – 7/1

• Hurricanes – 9/1

• Blues – 10/1

• Reds – 12/1

• Moana Pasifika – 35/1

• Waratahs – 100/1

• Highlanders – 500/1

 

My projected handicaps for Week 15 to follow 

 

SUPER RUGBY PACIFIC WEEK 14 WRAP 

Posted 18 May 20h51

Here is how the blog fared in week 14 

 

Hurricanes 24 Highlanders 20, handicap started -20.5 Hurricanes, BLOG PICK points range 56-62 at 36/10 missed and a late call Highlanders over 7.5 1st half points arrived at 21/20 to deliver a profit 

Waratahs 33 Crusaders 48, handicap started -4.5 Crusaders, BLOG PICK under 53.5 points was never a runner

Drua 38 v Force 7, handicap started Drua -9.5, BLOG PICK Drua over 33.5 arrived after a slow start 

Moana Pasifika 27 Blues 21, handicap started Moana +8.5, BLOG PICK was Moana +8.5 and it arrived easily 

Brumbies 24 v Reds 14, handicap started Brumbies -6.5, BLOG PICK Brumbies -6.5 our biggest SRP play of the weekend arrived in tense fashion 

 

 

We didn't quite match last weeks 100% record but a profit was shown and that is always a good effort.