In this blog Brent Graham has a go at projecting the week 14 handicaps and he also looks at the latest outright betting, the log, the forecast weather and towards the end of the week a bet in each match.

 

 

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ACT BRUMBIES vs QUEENSLAND REDS
Posted 16 May 23h47

This handicap has been quite solid all week around the -6.5 Brumbies level although there are signs that money is coming for the home team.

Both teams are without their 1^st choice 10’s but overall I like the way this Brumbies team is building to the playoffs and I make them a solid handicap play.

The points line is 55.5 and with some rain forecast after the game there is some uncertainty around conditions and I will stick with the handicap for now.

 

BET: 4 units Brumbies -6.5 at 9/10 at Pokerbet

 

 

MOANA PASIFIKA vs BLUES
Posted 16 May 22h36

This handicap has been steady most of the week but there has been some money for Moana in the last 36 hours or so with the +9.5 now +8.5.

The points line is 58.5 and conditions look good.

I am not that strong on this game but am leaning to Moana on the cap. On their day they are capable of pushing any team and the Blues still haven’t convinced me they are back to last seasons form.

 

BET: 3 units Moana Pasifika +8.5 at 0.93/1 at Betxchange 

 

FIJIAN DRUA vs WESTERN FORCE
Posted 16 May 09h32

The handicap opened -6.5 Drua and the home team found support on the back of team news with the handicap now -9.5.

The Drua have an excellent record in Lautoka and I am very much in the home teams camp here.

The angle I prefer though is points and I am going to back the Drua to score 34 points or more in what looks like being very rare good conditions.

The total points line is 58.5 but I prefer home points here.

 

BET: 4 units Drua over 33.5 points at 0.88/1 at Pokerbet

 

 

HIGHLANDERS TO GET 8 BY THE BREAK 

Posted 16 May 08h56 

A forum post from Roger Rabbit caught my eye and given I only have a small bet down on the opener I am following 

 

BET: 3 units Highlanders over 7.5 1st half points at 1.06/1 at Betxchange

 

NSW WARATAHS vs CRUSADERS
Posted 15 May 23h09

This handicap opened +7.5 Waratahs and is into +4.5 which is exactly where I set it.

The points line is currently 53.5 and with showers throughout the day I am leaning unders.

The Crusaders will want to overtake the Brumbies in 2^nd place and the Waratahs still have an outside chance of making the playoffs.

 

BET: 3 units under 53.5 at 0.97/1 at Betxchange 

 

HURRICANES vs HIGHLANDERS
Posted 15 May 22h57

There has been big money for the Hurricanes moving from -12.5 to -21.5 and now the line has come back slightly to -19.5.

As discussed on THE HANDICAP the initial line move was anticipated by the shrewd punters but it is hard to understand what took it 9 points away from where it started as Highlanders team news was much as expected.

The Hurricanes are currently in 6^th with the Highlanders in 10^th only hanging onto a mathematical chance of making the playoffs (top )

The points line is 58.5 and the weather looks good.

I am really not strong on anything in this game and for an interest will have a speculative play we get 56-62 points inclusive.

 

BET: 1 unit Points Range 56-62 points at 36/10 at Betxchange 

 

WEATHER LINKS AND LATEST FORECASTS

 Note teams have been posted below the weather 

 

Friday, 16 May 2025

 

Hurricanes vs Highlanders

Kickoff: 09:05 (SA time)
Venue: Sky Stadium, Wellington
Surface: Grass
• Weather Forecast: Mild and clear
• Humidity: High 70’s
• Forecast sourced at 08h02 on 14 May from timeanddate

 

NSW Waratahs vs Crusaders

Kickoff: 11:35 (SA time)
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Surface: Hybrid
• Weather Forecast: Temp in high teens, rain forecast
• Humidity: High 80’s
• Forecast sourced at 08h02 on 14 May from timeanddate

 

Saturday, 17 May 2025

 

Fijian Drua vs Western Force

Kickoff: 05:35 (SA time)
Venue: Churchill Park, Lautoka
Surface: Grass
• Weather Forecast: Hot in late 20’s, cloud but no rain forecast
• Humidity: In the 60’s (low for Fiji so verify before betting )
• Forecast sourced at 08h15 on 14 May from timeanddate

 

Moana Pasifika vs Blues

Kickoff: 09:05 (SA time)
Venue: North Harbour Stadium, Auckland
Surface: Grass
• Weather Forecast: Mild temps in high teens, loud cover but rain unlikely
• Humidity: High 70’s/Early 80’s
• Forecast sourced at 08h15 on 14 May from timeanddate

 

ACT Brumbies vs Queensland Reds

Kickoff: 11:35 (SA time)
Venue: GIO Stadium, Canberra
Surface: Grass
• Weather Forecast: Cold around 11 degrees, overcast and possible rain
• Humidity: Around 70%
• Forecast sourced at 08h15 on 14 May from timeanddate

 

TEAMS ARE OUT 

Posted 14 May 09h21

 

Hurricanes v Highlanders
Fri 16 May, 09:05 SAST – Sky Stadium, Wellington
Referee: TBC TMO: Glenn Newman

HURRICANES: 1. Xavier Numia, 2. Asafo Aumua (co-c), 3. Pasilio Tosi, 4. Zach Gallagher, 5. Isaia Walker-Leawere, 6. Brad Shields (co-c), 7. Peter Lakai, 8. Brayden Iose, 9. Cam Roigard, 10. Ruben Love, 11. Ngatungane Punivai, 12. Riley Higgins, 13. Billy Proctor (co-c), 14. Bailyn Sullivan, 15. Callum Harkin
Replacements: 16. Raymond Tuputupu, 17. Pouri Rakete-Stones, 18. Tevita Mafileo, 19. Will Tucker, 20. Du'Plessis Kirifi (co-c), 21. Ereatara Enari, 22. Brett Cameron, 23. Fatafehi Fineanganofo

HIGHLANDERS: 1. Ethan de Groot (co-c), 2. Jack Taylor, 3. Saula Ma’u, 4. Mitch Dunshea, 5. Fabian Holland, 6. Te Kamaka Howden, 7. Veveni Lasaqa, 8. Sean Withy, 9. Folau Fakatava, 10. Taine Robinson, 11. Jona Nareki, 12. Timoci Tavatavanawai (co-c), 13. Tanielu Tele'a, 14. Jonah Lowe, 15. Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens
Replacements: 16. Soane Vikena, 17. Josh Bartlett, 18. Sosefo Kautai, 19. Oliver Haig, 20. Michael Loft, 21. Adam Lennox, 22. Cameron Millar, 23. Thomas Umaga-Jensen

---

NSW Waratahs v Crusaders
Fri 16 May, 11:35 SAST – Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Referee: TBC | TMO: Glenn Newman

WARATAHS: 1. Angus Bell, 2. Dave Porecki, 3. Daniel Botha, 4. Fergus Lee-Warner, 5. Miles Amatosero, 6. Rob Leota, 7. Charlie Gamble, 8. Langi Gleeson, 9. Jake Gordon (c), 10. Tane Edmed, 11. Darby Lancaster, 12. Joey Walton, 13. Henry O'Donnell, 14. Triston Reilly, 15. Andrew Kellaway
Replacements: 16. Mahe Vailanu, 17. Tom Lambert, 18. Taniela Tupou, 19. Ben Grant, 20. Hugh Sinclair, 21. Teddy Wilson, 22. Jack Bowen, 23. Lalakai Foketi

CRUSADERS: 1. Tamaiti Williams, 2. Ioane Moananu, 3. Kershawl Sykes-Martin, 4. Quinten Strange, 5. Antonio Shalfoon, 6. Cullen Grace, 7. Tom Christie, 8. Christian Lio-Willie, 9. Noah Hotham, 10. Rivez Reihana, 11. Sevu Reece, 12. David Havili (c), 13. Braydon Ennor, 14. Chay Fihaki, 15. Johnny McNicholl
Replacements: 16. George Bell, 17. George Bower, 18. Seb Calder, 19. Tahlor Cahill, 20. Corey Kellow, 21. Kyle Preston, 22. James O'Connor, 23. Dallas McLeod

---

Fijian Drua v Western Force
Sat 17 May, 05:35 SAST – Churchill Park, Lautoka
Referee: Jordan Way | TMO: Brett Cronan

DRUA: 1. Haereiti Hetet, 2. Tevita Ikanivere (c), 3. Samuela Tawake, 4. Mesake Vocevoce, 5. Isoa Nasilasila, 6. Etonia Waqa, 7. Isoa Tuwai, 8. Elia Canakaivata, 9. Philip Baselala, 10. Kemu Valetini, 11. Taniela Rakuro, 12. Tuidraki Samusamuvodre, 13. Iosefo Masi, 14. Ponipate Loganimasi, 15. Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula
Replacements: 16. Mesulame Dolokoto, 17. Peni Ravai, 18. Mesake Doge, 19. Leone Rotuisolia, 20. Kitione Salawa, 21. Leone Nawai, 22. Inia Tabuavou, 23. Selestino Ravutaumada

FORCE: 1. Ryan Coxon, 2. Nic Dolly, 3. Tom Robertson, 4. Jeremy Williams (c), 5. Darcy Swain, 6. Will Harris, 7. Kane Koteka, 8. Reed Prinsep, 9. Henry Robertson, 10. Alex Harford, 11. Mac Grealy, 12. Reesjan Pasitoa, 13. Sio Tomkinson, 14. Bayley Kuenzle, 15. Kurtley Beale
Replacements: 16. Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17. Atu Moli, 18. Tiaan Tauakipulu, 19. Sam Carter, 20. Titi Nofoagatotoa, 21. Issak Fines-Leleiwasa, 22. Ben Donaldson, 23. George Poolman

---

Moana Pasifika v Blues
Sat 17 May, 09:05 SAST – North Harbour Stadium, Auckland
Referee: Angus Gardner | TMO: Glenn Newman

PASIFIKA: 1. Tito Tuipulotu, 2. Millennium Sanerivi, 3. Feleti Sae-Ta'ufo'ou, 4. Tom Savage, 5. Samuel Slade, 6. Miracle Faiilagi, 7. Ardie Savea (c), 8. Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa, 9. Jonathan Taumateine, 10. Patrick Pellegrini, 11. Kyren Taumoefolau, 12. Danny Toala, 13. Lalomilo Lalamilo, 14. Tevita Ofa, 15. William Havili
Replacements: 16. Samiuela Moli, 17. Abraham Pole, 18. Chris Apoua, 19. Allan Craig, 20. Sione Havili Talitui, 21. Melani Matavao, 22. Jackson Garden-Bachop, 23. Julian Savea

BLUES: 1. Joshua Fusitu'a, 2. Ricky Riccitelli, 3. Angus Ta'avao, 4. Patrick Tuipulotu (c), 5. Josh Beehre, 6. Adrian Choat, 7. Dalton Papali'i, 8. Hoskins Sotutu, 9. Taufa Funaki, 10. Beauden Barrett, 11. Caleb Clarke, 12. Xavi Taele, 13. Rieko Ioane, 14. AJ Lam, 15. Corey Evans
Replacements: 16. Kurt Eklund, 17. Mason Tupaea, 18. Marcel Renata, 19. Laghlan McWhannell, 20. Cam Christie, 21. Finlay Christie, 22. Harry Plummer, 23. Cole Forbes

---

ACT Brumbies v Queensland Reds
Sat 17 May, 11:35 SAST – GIO Stadium, Canberra
Referee: Nic Berry | TMO: James Leckie

BRUMBIES: 1. James Slipper, 2. Billy Pollard, 3. Allan Alaalatoa (c), 4. Nick Frost, 5. Lachlan Shaw, 6. Rob Valetini, 7. Rory Scott, 8. Tom Hooper, 9. Ryan Lonergan, 10. Declan Meredith, 11. Corey Toole, 12. David Feliuai, 13. Len Ikitau, 14. Andy Muirhead, 15. Tom Wright
Replacements: 16. Lachlan Lonergan, 17. Lington Ieli, 18. Rhys van Nek, 19. Cadeyrn Neville, 20. Tuaina Taii Tualima, 21. Harrison Goddard, 22. Hudson Creighton, 23. Ollie Sapsford

REDS: 1. Sef Fa'agase, 2. Richie Asiata, 3. Zane Nonggorr, 4. Josh Canham, 5. Ryan Smith, 6. Joe Brial, 7. Fraser McReight, 8. John Bryant, 9. Tate McDermott (c), 10. Harry McLaughlin-Phillips, 11. Tim Ryan, 12. Hunter Paisami, 13. Filipo Daugunu, 14. Lachie Anderson, 15. Jock Campbell
Replacements: 16. Josh Nasser, 17. Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 18. Massimo De Lutiis, 19. Angus Blyth, 20. Connor Vest, 21. Kalani Thomas, 22. Dre Pakeho, 23. Heremaia Murray

 

LATEST HANDICAPS AND POINTS LINES

Posted 14 May 07h58

There has been some money for the Hurricanes - opening handicap in brackets to the left of current handicap, and points lines to the right - weather links to follow 

 

• Hurricanes (-12.5) -14.5 vs Highlanders, Points 55.5

• NSW Waratahs (+7.5) +6.5 vs Crusaders, Points 54.5

• Fijian Drua  (-6.5) -6.5 vs Western Force, Points 58.5

• Moana Pasifika (+9.5) +9.5 vs Blues, Points 57.5

• ACT Brumbies (-7.5) -6.5 vs Queensland Reds, Points 53.5 

 

MARKETS STABLE 

Posted 12 May 23h48 

The early part of this week is crazy for me and having been on the road all day Monday I have my daughters graduation tomorrow. 

Markets pretty stable with no more than a 1 point line move here and there. 

I will be back Wednesday for a look at the weather.

 

BOOKIES ARE OUT WITH WEEK 14 HANDICAPS 

Posted 12 May 07h10 

 

The bookies are out early so I can do the comparison before hitting the day job - Betxchange handicaps in brackets 

 

• Hurricanes -9.5 (-12.5) vs Highlanders

• NSW Waratahs +4.5 (+7.5) vs Crusaders

• Fijian Drua -3.5 (-6.5) vs Western Force

• Moana Pasifika +12.5 (+9.5) vs Blues

• ACT Brumbies -6.5 (-7.5) vs Queensland Reds

3 points difference in the top 4 games. Not big enough to climb into anything and I will watch the markets with interest. 

 

SRP WEEK 14 HANDICAP PROJECTIONS 

Posted 11 May 21h34

Here are my handicap projections. I am on the road tomorrow but will ask Chris to post the bookies lines as a comparison when they come out 

 

• Hurricanes -9.5 vs Highlanders

• NSW Waratahs +4.5 vs Crusaders

• Fijian Drua -3.5 vs Western Force

• Moana Pasifika +12.5 vs Blues

• ACT Brumbies -6.5 vs Queensland Reds

 

The Rugby Thread in our forum is up and running and punters will share opinions and information all week 

 

SRP TABLE AND OUTRIGHT BETTING AFTER WEEK 13 

Posted 11 May 21h20

 

Below the latest standings 

 

1. Chiefs – Played: 12, Points: 41

2. ACT Brumbies – Played: 12, Points: 39

3. Crusaders – Played: 11, Points: 37

4. Queensland Reds – Played: 11, Points: 32

5. Blues – Played: 12, Points: 27

6. Hurricanes – Played: 11, Points: 26

👉 Top 6 teams qualify for playoffs

7. Moana Pasifika – Played: 11, Points: 24

8. NSW Waratahs – Played: 11, Points: 22

9. Western Force – Played: 12, Points: 22

10. Highlanders – Played: 11, Points: 18

11. Fijian Drua – Played: 12, Points: 15

 

and the latest outright betting at WSB 

 

• Chiefs – 14/10

• Crusaders – 2/1

• Brumbies – 15/2

• Hurricanes – 8/1

• Blues – 9/1

• Reds – 10/1

• Waratahs – 40/1

• Moana Pasifika – 66/1

• Western Force – 125/1

• Highlanders – 250/1

 

 

 

SUPER RUGBY PACIFIC WEEK 13 WRAP 

Posted 11 May 21h03

 

Week 13 was a beaut with all 4 blog picks arriving 

Drua 5 Blues 34, Handicap started Blues -7.5, Blog Pick: Blues -6.5 came home smoking a cigar 

Waratahs 21 Reds 28, Handicap started Reds -2.5, Blog Pick under 54.5 points closed out a good friday 

Crusaders 19 Chiefs 35, Handicap started Chiefs +2.5, Blog Pick under 55.5 points snuck in 

Force 14 Brumbies 33, Handicap started Brumbies -4.5, Blog Pick under 57.5 points was an easy winner