In this blog Brent Graham has a go at projecting the week 13 handicaps and he also looks at the latest outright betting, the log, the forecast weather and towards the end of the week a bet in each match.
WESTERN FORCE v BRUMBIES
Posted 10 May 00h40
This handicap opened +6.5 Force but has been stable around the +4.5 mark.
The points line is 57.5 and although the weather looks good I am leaning unders again.
BET: 3 units under 57.5 at 0.99/1 at Betxchange
CRUSADERS v CHIEFS
Posted 09 May 16h46
This is the match of the weekend between sides 1 and 2 on the table. The Chiefs are ahead at the moment but only on points difference and if the Crusaders win this it is hard to imagine them not finishing on top.
The line hasn't moved much in terms of numbers but as "The Mossman" pointed out on THE HANDICAP it has bounced around a bit from -1.5 to -2.5 Crusaders and that suggests plenty of betting interest.
This should be a really tight game and some bets that appeal are Crusaders by 1-12 at 16/10 at Sportingbet and either team by less than 8 at 1.43/1 at Betxchange.
The points line is 55.5 and while conditions look clear humidity is pushing 90%.
That is enough to get me on the unders.
BET: 3 units under 55.5 points at 19/20 at Betxchange
Line atually 55.5 and have corrected
A GOOD START TO THE WEEKEND
Posted 09 May 13h55
Both bets arrived fairly comfortably this morning and my only regret was not taking more of the Blues minus having capped them 4 points higher than the bookies.
Bets on the 2 Saturday games to follow and here is a betting update
Crusaders -2.5 v Chiefs, points 54.5 - stable, weather looks cool and clear but humidity quite high
Force +4.5. Points 57.5 - stable, weather looks good
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WARATAHS v REDS
Posted 09 May 00h54
This handicap opened +6.5 Waratahs and the money has poured onto the home team and it currently sits +2.5. I think this will be a tight game with both teams having plenty to play for.
My interest though is in the points line as the forecast suggests rain during the game. I am going to take the under 54.5 points which would have arrived in the last 2 meetings between the sides in Sydney.
BET: 3 units under 54.5 points at 0.97/1 at Betxchange
FIJIAN DRUA v BLUES
Posted 09 May 00h43
This handicap is back where it started at +6.5 Drua although it touched +7.5 during the week.
The big betting move was on the points line though and with a night time kick off and poor weather expected the 56.5 has been backed into 51.5.
I am going to stick with my original feel on this one that the Blues should be -10.5. They should be the more focused of the sides given they sit just outside the playoffs and a loss here would make it a real battle to be involved in the business end of the competition.
BET: 3 units Blues -6.5 at 0.93/1 at Betxchange
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LATEST HANDICAPS AND POINTS LINES
Posted 07 May 23h02
Fijian Drua +6.5 vs Blues, points 53.5 (backed in from 56.5, I was on the road and missed the early line)
NSW Waratahs +2.5 vs Queensland Reds, Points 55.5 (money continues to come for the Waratahs in from +6.5)
Crusaders -2.5 vs Chiefs, Points 54.5
Western Force +4.5 vs ACT Brumbies, Points 54.5
You an certainly see it is winter from the points lines
WEATHER LINKS AND FORECAST FOR WEEK 13
Friday, 9 May 2025
Fijian Drua vs Blues
Kickoff: 09:05 (SA time)
Venue: HFC Bank Stadium, Suva
Surface: Grass
- Weather Forecast: Temp high 20’s, storms and showers expected
- Humidity: low 80’s
- Forecast sourced at 22h41 on 7 May from timeanddate
NSW Waratahs vs Queensland Reds
Kickoff: 11:35 (SA time)
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Surface: Hybrid
- Weather Forecast: Temp mid to high teens, showers expected
- Humidity: Low 80’s
- Forecast sourced at 22h46 on 07 May from timeanddate
Saturday, 10 May 2025
Crusaders vs Chiefs
Kickoff: 09:05 (SA time)
Venue: Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch
Surface: Grass
- Weather Forecast: Cool, temps around 9-10 degrees
- Humidity: low 90’s
- Forecast sourced at 22h53 on 07 May from timeanddate
Western Force vs ACT Brumbies
Kickoff: 11:35 (SA time)
Venue: HBF Park, Perth
Surface: Grass
- Weather Forecast: Clear, temp in early 20’s
- Humidity: 60’s
- Forecast sourced at 22h56 on 07 May from timeanddate
SRP WEEK 13 TEAMS ARE OUT
Posted 07 May 11h04
Teams below - weather links will be up tonight
Fijian Drua v Blues
Fri 9 May, 09:05 SAST – HFC Bank Stadium, Suva
Referee: Nic Berry | TMO: Damon Murphy
DRUA: 1. Haereiti Hetet, 2. Zuriel Togiatama, 3. Mesake Doge (c), 4. Mesake Vocevoce, 5. Isoa Nasilasila, 6. Joseva Tamani, 7. Isoa Tuwai, 8. Kitione Salawa, 9. Simione Kuruvoli, 10. Kemu Valetini, 11. Taniela Rakuro, 12. Inia Tabuavou, 13. Vuate Karawalevu, 14. Selestino Ravutaumada, 15. Ponipate Loganimasi
Replacements: 16. Tevita Ikanivere, 17. Peni Ravai, 18. Samuela Tawake, 19. Sailosi Vukalokalo, 20. Elia Canakiavata, 21. Philip Baselala, 22. Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula, 23. Isikeli Rabitu
BLUES: 1. Joshua Fusitu'a, 2. Ricky Riccitelli, 3. Marcel Renata, 4. Patrick Tuipulotu (c), 5. Laghlan McWhannell, 6. Anton Segner, 7. Dalton Papali'i, 8. Hoskins Sotutu, 9. Taufa Funaki, 10. Beauden Barrett, 11. AJ Lam, 12. Xavi Taele, 13. Rieko Ioane, 14. Cole Forbes, 15. Corey Evans
Replacements: 16. Kurt Eklund, 17. Mason Tupaea, 18. Angus Ta'avao, 19. Josh Beehre, 20. Adrian Choat, 21. Finlay Christie, 22. Harry Plummer, 23. Zarn Sullivan
Waratahs v Reds
Fri 9 May, 11:35 SAST – Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Referee: James Doleman | TMO: Richard Kelly
WARATAHS: 1. Angus Bell, 2. Dave Porecki, 3. Daniel Botha, 4. Fergus Lee-Warner, 5. Miles Amatosero, 6. Rob Leota, 7. Charlie Gamble, 8. Langi Gleeson, 9. Jake Gordon (c), 10. Tane Edmed, 11. Triston Reilly, 12. Joey Walton, 13. Henry O'Donnell, 14. Andrew Kellaway, 15. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
Replacements: 16. Mahe Vailanu, 17. Tom Lambert, 18. Taniela Tupou, 19. Ben Grant, 20. Felix Kalapu, 21. Teddy Wilson, 22. Jack Bowen, 23. Darby Lancaster
REDS: 1. Sef Fa'agase, 2. Richie Asiata, 3. Zane Nonggorr, 4. Josh Canham, 5. Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 6. Seru Uru, 7. Fraser McReight, 8. John Bryant, 9. Tate McDermott (c), 10. Tom Lynagh, 11. Tim Ryan, 12. Dre Pakeho, 13. Filipo Daugunu, 14. Lachie Anderson, 15. Jock Campbell
Replacements: 16. Josh Nasser, 17. Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 18. Massimo De Lutiis, 19. Ryan Smith, 20. Angus Blyth, 21. Joe Brial, 22. Kalani Thomas, 23. Harry McLaughlin-Phillips
Crusaders v Chiefs
Sat 10 May, 09:05 SAST – Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch
Referee: Ben O'Keeffe | TMO: Glenn Newman
CRUSADERS: 1. Tamaiti Williams, 2. Codie Taylor, 3. Fletcher Newell, 4. Scott Barrett, 5. Antonio Shalfoon, 6. Cullen Grace, 7. Tom Christie, 8. Christian Lio-Willie, 9. Noah Hotham, 10. Rivez Reihana, 11. Sevu Reece, 12. David Havili (c), 13. Braydon Ennor, 14. Chay Fihaki, 15. Will Jordan
Replacements: 16. Ioane Moananu, 17. George Bower, 18. Seb Calder, 19. Jamie Hannah, 20. Corey Kellow, 21. Kyle Preston, 22. James O'Connor, 23. Dallas McLeod
CHIEFS: 1. Ollie Norris, 2. Brodie McAlister, 3. George Dyer, 4. Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 5. Tupou Vaa'i, 6. Simon Parker, 7. Luke Jacobson (c), 8. Wallace Sititi, 9. Cortez Ratima, 10. Damian McKenzie, 11. Leroy Carter, 12. Quinn Tupaea, 13. Daniel Rona, 14. Emoni Narawa, 15. Shaun Stevenson
Replacements: 16. Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17. Aidan Ross, 18. Reuben O'Neill, 19. Josh Lord, 20. Samipeni Finau, 21. Xavier Roe, 22. Josh Jacomb, 23. Gideon Wrampling
Western Force v Brumbies
Sat 10 May, 11:35 SAST – HBF Park, Perth
Referee: Paul Williams | TMO: Graham Cooper
FORCE: 1. Ryan Coxon, 2. Nic Dolly, 3. Tom Robertson, 4. Jeremy Williams (c), 5. Darcy Swain, 6. Will Harris, 7. Carlo Tizzano, 8. Nick Champion de Crespigny, 9. Henry Robertson, 10. Ben Donaldson, 11. Mac Grealy, 12. Hamish Stewart, 13. Bayley Kuenzle, 14. Harry Potter, 15. Kurtley Beale
Replacements: 16. Tom Horton, 17. Atu Moli, 18. Tiaan Tauakipulu, 19. Lopeti Faifua, 20. Reed Prinsep, 21. Nic White, 22. Max Burey, 23. Sio Tomkinson
BRUMBIES: 1. James Slipper, 2. Lachlan Lonergan, 3. Allan Alaalatoa (c), 4. Nick Frost, 5. Lachlan Shaw, 6. Rob Valetini, 7. Rory Scott, 8. Tom Hooper, 9. Ryan Lonergan, 10. Noah Lolesio, 11. Corey Toole, 12. David Feliuai, 13. Len Ikitau, 14. Andy Muirhead, 15. Tom Wright
Replacements: 16. Liam Bowron, 17. Lington Ieli, 18. Rhys van Nek, 19. Tuaina Taii Tualima, 20. Luke Reimer, 21. Harrison Goddard, 22. Declan Meredith, 23. Ollie Sapsford
SMALL BETTING MOVES AND WE HAVE POINTS LINES
Posted 06 May 10h57
2 points moves on the Blues (moving closer to my +10.5 projection), the Waratahs and the Force - previous prices in brackets
Fijian Drua (+5.5) +7.5 vs Blues
NSW Waratahs (+6.5) +4.5 vs Queensland Reds
Crusaders (-2.5) -2.5 vs Chiefs
Western Force (+6.5) +4.5 vs ACT Brumbies
SRP WEEK 13 HANDICAPS ARE OUT
Posted 05 May 08h51
Betxchange are out with their handicaps in brackets next to mine
Fijian Drua +10.5 (+5.5) vs Blues - 5 point difference, Blues could rotate but given their position on the log I don't think they can afford to lose - no bet for now
NSW Waratahs +2.5 (+6.5) vs Queensland Reds - 4 point difference, I was not confident on this one so also a no bet for now
Crusaders -3.5 (-2.5) vs Chiefs
Western Force +7.5 (+6.5) vs ACT Brumbies
SRP WEEK 13 PROJECTED HANDICAPS
Posted 04 May 17h36
We have only 4 matches this weekend and below the fixtures, time and my projected handicaps which will be compared with the bookmakers lines on Monday morning
Friday, 9 May 2025
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Fijian Drua +10.5 vs Blues – 09:05 – HFC Bank Stadium, Suva
-
NSW Waratahs +2.5 vs Queensland Reds – 11:35 – Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Saturday, 10 May 2025
-
Crusaders -3.5 vs Chiefs* – 09:05 – Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch
-
Western Force +7.5 vs ACT Brumbies – 11:35 – HBF Park, Perth
*Chiefs have a bye in week 14
I don't have a confident feel about my handicaps this week.
SRP STANDINGS AND BETTING AFTER WEEK 12
Posted 04 May 17h14
Super Rugby Pacific – Standings
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Chiefs (11) – 37 pts
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Crusaders (10) – 37 pts
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ACT Brumbies (11) – 34 pts
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Queensland Reds (10) – 28 pts
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Hurricanes (11) – 26 pts
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Moana Pasifika (11) – 24 pts
— Top 6 teams qualify for playoffs —
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Blues (11) – 22 pts
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Western Force (11) – 22 pts
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NSW Waratahs (10) – 21 pts
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Highlanders (11) – 18 pts
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Fijian Drua (11) – 15 pts
Latest Betting at WSB
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Chiefs – 27/20
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Crusaders – 7/4
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Brumbies – 8/1
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Hurricanes – 10/1
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Reds – 10/1
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Blues – 14/1
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Waratahs – 25/1
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Moana Pasifika – 65/1
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Western Force – 65/1
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Fijian Drua – 200/1
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Highlanders – 200/1
SUPER RUGBY PACIFIC WEEK 12 WRAP
Posted 04 May 17h02
Lets start with a look at how our picks fared in week 12
Blues 40 Force 19, the Blues started -15.5, BLOG PICK under 56.5 was a loser
Drua 36 v Reds 33, Drua started +3.5, BLOG PICK was an early one 9/10 Reds win. The line moved in our favour but the result didn't
Hurricanes 35 Chiefs 17, line started Canes +3.5, BLOG PICK either team by less than 8 at 1.48/1 looked a runner until the Canes pulled clear
Brumbies 40 Waratahs 17, handicap started Brumbies -10.5, BLOG PICK Brumbies over 33.5 pts (also the newsletter bet - click here to join us) arrived
Highlanders 29 Moana Pasifika 34, Highlanders started -3.5, BLOG PICK Moana to win at 29/20 arrived in dramatic fashion
Not our best weekend and the Reds result was disappointing and well done to those who hedged out but the Brumbies and Moana rescued the weekend.
Updated log, betting and of course my handicap projections for week 13 to follow
