Wednesday’s UCL semi final first leg action comes from Madrid where Atletico clash with Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
Atletico came through a real humdinger of a quarter final with Barcelona with a 3-2 aggregate win. They won the first leg away from home 2-0 with goals from Julian Alvarez and Alexander Sorloth after Barca had been reduced to 10 men. In the return Barca were 2-0 up in 24 minutes but Lookman pulled a goal back on 31 minutes for Atletico and there was no further scoring, 2-1 to Barca on the night but Atletico went through.
Atletico won their first leg of their Round of 16 clash with Spurs 5-2 in Madrid and although they lost the return in London 3-2 on the night they went through 7-5 on aggregate. Atletico had to take the play off route to qualify for the Round of 16 and after drawing the first leg of their clash with Club Brugge 3-3 they ran out 4-1 winners in the return in Madrid. In the league phase Atletico won 4, drew 1 and lost 3 of their matches and they faded in the later rounds to finish 14th.
In La Liga Atletico are a distant fourth but that would be good enough to qualify for the UCL next season and given they are 10 points clear of fifth placed Betis they look very secure in that regard.
Arsenal
An injury time goal from Kai Havertz gave Arsenal a 1-0 lead from the quarter final first leg against Sporting in Lisbon. The return in London finished without a goal and Arsenal edged their way through to the semi finals 1-0 on aggregate.
The Gunners came up against Bayer Leverkusen in the Ro16. They needed a late penalty to rescue a 1-1 draw in the first leg in Germany before goals from Eze and Rice in the return in London delivered a 2-0 win on the night and 3-1 victory on aggregate. Arsenal topped the League Phase winning all 8 matches scoring a total of 23 goals whilst conceding just 4 and their stand out results included home wins over Atletico (4-0) and another semi finalist Bayern Munich (3-1).
At the weekend Arsenal’s 1-0 home win over Newcastle saw them go back to the top of the EPL standings, 3 points clear of Man City who have a game in hand. The goal difference and goals scored by each side are very similar and the title race looks set to go down to the wire.
The Betting:
In the outright betting to win the UCL this season Sportingbet have Arsenal a 12/5 and Atletico Madrid at 13/2 although those prices my change after Tuesday’s first leg between PSG and Bayern.
To qualify for the final under any method over the two legs Arsenal are 5/10 and Atletico are 6/4
To win this first leg Atletico are 18/5 a draw is 22/10 and Arsenal are 31/20
A total of 3 goals or more in this first keg is priced at 23/20 and it’s 9/10 for both teams to score.
Declan Rice’s price to provide an assist has been boosted to 29/4 with Sportingbet
Anyoine Griezmann’s price to provide an assist has been boosted to 29/4 with Sportingbet
The Verdict:
I’ve got plenty of time for this Atletico side and I’m not reading too much into their 4-0 defeat at Arsenal in the League Phase.
The Gunners have been doing just enough in these UCL knockout rounds and domestically they have been falling short in league and cup more than once. Atletico can score twice here in my opinion.
Bet: Atletico total goals over 1.5 at 18/10 with Sportingbet
Note odds quoted are subject to change