The new EFL Championship season gets underway on Friday night and the opening round of fixtures has thrown up some interesting matches. Let’s see what the stats tell us.
Before we begin, if you are taking outright bets on a team to be promoted, bear in mind that we have 6 team plays offs this season instead of the usual 4.
Round 1 Fixtures and Match Result Betting
Note, odds are subject to change
Looking at the odds quoted in the match result market it strikes me that there is plenty of scope for draws with only 2 of the 12 fixture seeing the draw quoted at odds higher than 5/2.
Excluding the play offs last season the match result stats came in as follows.
Home Wins 42%
Draws 26%
Away Wins 32/%
Whilst on the subject of stats how’s this for a conundrum? In the ever popular under/ over 2.5 total goals market 51% of matches went over and 49% under.
The average number of goals per game was 2.61, home teams scored an average of 1.4 per match and away teams an average of 1.2.
Let's move on to the promotion picture.
To Win The EFL Championship Title
Relegated Teams Bouncing Straight Back
Of teams relegated in 2024/25 only Ipswich bounced back with promotion to the EPL last season. Southampton had an awful start, strong finish and then were ousted from the play offs after spying on Middlesbrough whilst Leicester City were hit with a points deduction which contributed towards their relegation to League 1. This season West Ham, Wolves and Burnley are the teams looking to bounce back. West Ham are the only one of that trio to have retained their coach. In addition to the parachute payments for the relegated clubs West Ham have also generated in the region of £150 million in player sales but have managed to hold on to Jarrod Bowen, they ought to be a shoo in at 74 to win the title but tying money up for that long at those odds isn’t really my game. As for Wolves, who have made a couple of astute signings but now have a new coach, I would rather see how they start whilst Burnley recovering and coming straight back up will be no easy task in my book.
Who’s Spending Big?
Nobody really although the transfer window doesn’t close for the EFL until Tuesday 1st September. At the time of writing Birmingham and Swansea had spent more than they had generated in sales whilst Wrexham were just completing the signing of a £10 million goalkeeper, Anthony Patterson from Sunderland and Middlesbrough spent double that on striker Will Lankshear from Spurs.
Surprise Packages.
Hull City were promoted to the EPL via the play offs last season, Millwall were also in the mix and few would have had those two sides on their promotion radar 12 months ago. The likes of Norwich, Stoke and Bristol City are under the radar candidates who could go well.
Round 1 Bets:
Middlesbrough spent a reported £20 million on Lankshear who I’m backing to open the scoring against Lincoln.
Will Lankshear 1st goalscorer at 100/30 with Sportingbet
Norwich started slowly last season and should have learned from that, they get my vote to beat West Brom on Saturday
Norwich v West Brom, home win at even money with Sportingbet
Cardiff have done very little in the transfer market and could lose Monday night’s derby clash to Wrexham
Cardiff v Wrexham, Away win at 15/8 with Sportingbet
Prices are subject to change