The Europa League quarter finals conclude on Thursday and our focus is on Aston Villa v Bologna and Notts Forest v FC Porto
Aston Villa v Bologna
Villa appear to be well and truly in control of this tie and after a 3-1 win in the first leg away from home. However they were on the back foot before taking a 2-0 lead through Konsa and Watkins, Bologna gave themselves a lifeline with a 90th minute goal from Rowe. That wasn’t the end of the story though with Watkins adding his second and Villa’s third deep into injury time.
In the Round of 16 Villa won both legs of their match up with Lille, 1-0 away from home and 2-0 in the return at Villa Park. They came through the League Phase with a fair degree of comfort, winning 7 and losing 1 to qualify automatically in second spot. Their only blip came on Matchday 6, a 2-1 defeat away to GA Eagles.
In the League phase Bologna won 4 of their 8 matches, drawing 3 and losing just the 1 and they finished tenth to make the play offs. That defeat came at Villa (1-0) in the opening round back on the 25th September. In the play offs they won both legs of their match up with Brann 1-0 to set up a Round of 16 clash with Roma. Bologna had home advantage in the first leg which finished 1-1 and after the return in Rome was level at 3-3 in 90 minutes, Bologna found the winner in extra time to win 4-3 on the night.
The Verdict:
Villa have beaten this opposition twice already in this competition although Bologna’s result in Rome in the Ro16 suggests they could still be a threat to some degree.
I’ll go with both teams to score in a game of 3 goals o more in regulation time.
Bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 total goals? Yes at 23/20 with Sportingbet
Notts Forest v Porto
After last week’s first leg in Portugal this tie is all square at 1-1. William Gomes gave Porto an 11th minute lead and Forest looked to be rocking early on but just after the opener a freak own goal from Porto’s Martim Fernandes squared things up and that’s how it finished.
Forest won 4, drew 2 and lost 2 of their matches in the League Phase to finish in the play off places in thirteenth. They faced an awkward looking play off against Fenerbahce but a top display delivered a 3-0 win away from home in the first leg and although they lost the return 2-1 they had dome enough. In the Round of 16 Forest lost 1-0 at home to Midtjylland but they won the second leg 2-1 to force extra time and eventually came through on spot kicks.
Porto booked their quarter final place with a 4-1 aggregate win over Stuttgart, winning the first leg in Germany 2-1 and finishing the job with a 2-0 home win. Porto finished the League Phase with 5 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat to qualify automatically in fifth position. That loss came against Forest, 2-0 in Nottingham on 23rd October.
The Verdict:
Both sides rang the changes for the first leg and although Forest are still in a relegation battle and Porto are going for the Portuguese title I’m thinking we may see something more like the strongest Porto line up from the start, Forest’s is a little more difficult to predict.
I’m with Igor Jesus, who I think will feature for a chunk of the game to find the net at some stage of regulation time for Forest.
Bet: Anytime goalscorer Igor Jesus at 27/10 with Sportingbet
Note odds quoted are subject to change
