Six Nations Rd 4, Italy vs England Historical Odds data

My return to form was short lived and it was a pretty poor weekend for me overall 

Six Nations returns this weekend and the current handicaps are below 

• Ireland v Wales – Ireland -26.5
• Scotland v France – Scotland +10.5
• Italy v England – Italy +8.5

The Super Rugby Blog is up and running with my projected handicaps 

Friday, 6 March 2026
Chiefs -15.5 v Moana Pasifika – 08:05
Waratahs -3.5 v Hurricanes – 10:35

Saturday, 7 March 2026
Highlanders -8.5 v Western Force – 05:35
Blues +1.5 v Crusaders – 08:05
Brumbies -5.5 v Reds – 10:35

Varsity Cup lines to follow 

Varsity Cup lines for this evening @ WSB currently:

UJ (+18.5) v NWU Eagles
CUT (+8.5) v Shimlas
Emeris (+27.5) v Ikeys
Tuks (-2.5) v Maties

All over Tuks -2.5. They have started really well, where Maties haven't been that impressive in their first two matches. I feel the line should be closer to 8.5.

Shimlas -8.5 also looks good, reckon this should be double digits. 
 

SRP Blog updated with early handicaps (in brackets) next to mine 

Chiefs -15.5 (-22.5) v Moana Pasifika – bookies correct here
Waratahs -3.5 (+1.5) v Hurricanes – Aussie teams looking very competitive against NZL teams this year, not betting yet but would take Tah’s ML
Highlanders -8.5 (-8.5) v Western Force
Blues +1.5 (+2.5) v Crusaders – I would have made Blues -4.5 before this past weekend
Brumbies -5.5 (-10.5) v Reds – I think this line might come in a bit , perhaps to -8.5

In the Varsity Cup I was eyeing points at CUT vs Shimlas but backing overs at 78.5 is a scary proposition.

UJ is a tough place to play I'm backing them on the +18.5 handicap.

Hail mary on UJ win and CUT win @ 38/1

  Here are some historical oddsmakers data (in decimal format)  from the past four head to heads of previous six nations relative to this fixture.
As you can see some of the closing betting lines look quiet similar and it may give an idea of what to expect.
We have already seen that points moves down-wards have seen a nod to the under-dog plus handicap and the closing total points number landing on the under!

Regards Team MOGA 
(MAKE ORACLE GREAT AGAIN)

  Some strong trends towards the closing Total OVER and Scotland do have a decent record of covering the plus handicap. We haven't seen any line movements since the opening 10.5 line but it may come in (speculate) to 8.5

The market is perhaps unsure which Scotland turns up, the fighting competitive or the timid roll over.
For now I am with the Scots on the handicap and if the conditions are good settle may jump to the total market 

This game has seen the most interest since the opening lines posted 2 weeks ago. Apparently ITA +14.5 was the earliest number posted, clearly this was a fat fingers error and was swiftly taken down, to ITA +10.5 and its stayed here but I think this line could be popular with the Italians seeing most of the most money, it may even close to ITA +7.5 if  a dour dog fight match plays out. Italy may fancy the job and as we have seen so far this tournament the Match outright winner tends to fall into the underdog closing at 3/1 mark. 
ONE to watch closer on Saturday morning.

This is the later game on Saturday early evening, which is not the usual time for Italian games at the Olympic Stadium 

Welcome MOGA  and thanks for those stats! 

Some great calls on the Varsity Cup lads especially your early Tuks call @JacquesT

My son was at the Tuks v Maties game, reckons they started poorly but played well for a convincing win. 

9 changes to the England starting XV to face Italy on Saturday. Will be interesting to see how the market reacts, reckon the 8.5 cap won't last long?

England team: 15 Elliot Daly, 14 Tom Roebuck, ⁠13 Tommy Freeman, ​12 Seb Atkinson, 11 Cadan Murley, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Ben Spencer, 8 Ben Earl, ​7 Tom Curry, 6 Guy Pepper, 5 Alex Coles, 4 Maro Itoje (captain), 3 Joe Heyes, 2 Jamie George, 1 Ellis Genge

Replacements: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Bevan Rodd, 18 Trevor Davison, 19 Ollie ​Chessum, 20 Sam Underhill, 21 Henry Pollock, 22 Jack van Poortvliet, 23 Marcus Smith.