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Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF

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2 weeks 3 days ago - 2 weeks 3 days ago #2825 by Brent Graham
Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF was created by Brent Graham
Broke about square this weekend and what a pity the Stormers couldn't seal the deal at Toulon. 

This weekend it is the quarter-finals 

Bath vs Northampton Saints
Glasgow Warriors vs Toulon
Leinster vs Sale Sharks
Bordeaux Bègles vs Toulouse

That final match should be a belter 

Here are the round 9 Super Rugby Fixtures - with my projected handicaps 

Highlanders -2.5 vs Brumbies
Moana Pasifika +25.5 vs Chiefs
Fijian Drua -6.5 vs Western Force
Hurricanes -5.5 vs Blues
Reds +3.5 vs Crusaders

And on Monday night we have the Varsity Cup semis with current handicaps below 

Eagles -4.5 v Maties 
Tuks -25.5 v UJ 
Last edit: 2 weeks 3 days ago by Brent Graham.
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2 weeks 3 days ago - 2 weeks 3 days ago #2829 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF
SRP Blog is up with a review of last week and a comparison of my handicaps to the eaarly lines (in brackets) 

Highlanders -2.5 (-1.5) vs Brumbies
Moana Pasifika +25.5 (+39.5) vs Chiefs
Fijian Drua -6.5 (-4.5) vs Western Force
Hurricanes -5.5 (-6.5) vs Blues
Reds +3.5 (+5.5) vs Crusaders

Close in all but the Chiefs game, wow 39.5 seems high and surely that comes in a few points? That being said I cannot brng myself to back Moana 

Here are the early Champions Cup lines 

Bath -10.5 v Northampton Saints
Glasgow Warriors -10.5 v Toulon
Leinster -17.5 v Sale Sharks
Bordeaux Begles -2.5 v Toulouse
Last edit: 2 weeks 3 days ago by Brent Graham.
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2 weeks 2 days ago #2833 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF
Varsity Cup

Make NWU v Maties close to choice on basis that Maties won 30-26 two weeks ago and are defensively marginally better. Maties have conceded 50 fewer points over the seven matches. Object in semi is to win so no real reason for Tuks to keep at 100% all match plus biggest margin in last four semi's was 14.


Double 

Maties win  and  UJ + 24.5  @  7/2

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2 weeks 7 hours ago #2857 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF
Trying something different in this weeks blog and am handing the tipping over to a model I am testing for one of The Handicap and Goodforthegame regulars 

It has thrown up a max bet Brumbies -1.5 in the opener 
 
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1 week 6 days ago #2863 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF
The Handicap is back live at 21h00 tonight and The Mossman and The Admiral are on the panel. 

Click here to watch on You Tube  

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1 week 6 days ago #2865 by Southpaw
Replied by Southpaw on topic Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF
Fired the over 56.5 @ 5/6 Highlanders v Brumbies tomorrow am. Need a fast start and a few early tries. 

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1 week 6 days ago #2868 by JacquesT
Replied by JacquesT on topic Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF
Took the 9/10 on offer from WSB on a Brumbies win last night. More than happy with that. I personally capped this game at 8.5

Highlanders under 27.5 points @ Pokerbet. Landers only crossed this mark in wins against Moana and Force this season thus far. More often than not, they struggle to score this much points against the "bigger teams" in the competition. Also testing a theory that when the cap is completely wrong, you take unders on the team that should have had the higher plus as the bookies give them a higher points line than they should have. 

Charlie Cale is on a six-game try scoring streak, yes it won't continue forever, but feel this is a game where his streak can continue. Anytime try scorer 5/4 @ WSB
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1 week 6 days ago #2869 by Jameson
Replied by Jameson on topic Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF
I got sucker punched into the overs @48.5 in live play - Jesus.

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1 week 6 days ago #2870 by Southpaw
Replied by Southpaw on topic Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF

I got sucker punched into the overs @48.5 in live play - Jesus.
its been the worse game I’ve watched all year. I may need to call it a day on super rugby. I just cannot call it compared to past season, I don’t know if I’m disconnected from rugby down there or just relying on past trends too much. Either way I just gift any winnings on European rugby back on super rugby, painful. 

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1 week 6 days ago #2873 by Jameson
Replied by Jameson on topic Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF
Yes, grim in the extreme.

Looks like the GFTG top punters got saved by a yellow card there!

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1 week 5 days ago #2878 by Kirky
Replied by Kirky on topic Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF

I got sucker punched into the overs @48.5 in live play - Jesus.
its been the worse game I’ve watched all year. I may need to call it a day on super rugby. I just cannot call it compared to past season, I don’t know if I’m disconnected from rugby down there or just relying on past trends too much. Either way I just gift any winnings on European rugby back on super rugby, painful. 
My theory is that there's too much rugby, across too many comps / countries/ going on.
If you apply the same criteria anything like Super rugby in any other compo, your're fxked.
IMO the PREM is the most reliable and steady,  call it proper rugby ( LOL).
From there on the comps get wilder and woolier.  we've even have some little blonde drom-poppies in mini skirts blowing the whistle - imagine how the blood for the props woodies must drain their heads.  CHAOS.
I reckon when you get down to it, it's just like rest of the world - going daft.
Who agrees ?
Or thinks I should go back to my therapist.

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1 week 5 days ago #2881 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF
Kirky I agree there is too much rugby and with teams having to manage resources and in some cases just getting tired we have had some crazy results the last couple of years. 

SRP blog updated 

No bet for me in the opened, the model likes Loaman plus 31.5 and under 68.5 and Chiefs under 50.5 but I wont be betting 
Drua -4.5 at 0.98/1 my bet on a game where the model reckons the handicap is well set and overs could be worth a small play - the weather worries me though. 
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1 week 5 days ago - 1 week 5 days ago #2883 by JacquesT
Replied by JacquesT on topic Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF
Drua v Force

Anytime Try Scorer - Etonia Waqa 24/10 
                                - Dylan Pietsch 11/10 
Force Total Points Over 24.5 87/100

All at WSB
Last edit: 1 week 5 days ago by JacquesT.

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1 week 5 days ago #2884 by JacquesT
Replied by JacquesT on topic Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF
Blues + 9.5
Crusaders - 3.5
Reds v Crusaders First Try Scorer - George Bell 14/1 @ WSB
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1 week 5 days ago #2888 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF
Fairly small interest for me in the remaining games with SRP blog updated 

Canes v Blues points 56-62 at 39/10 
Reds win at 31/20 



 
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1 week 5 days ago #2889 by Southpaw
Replied by Southpaw on topic Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF
Had a decent strike at France women over 5.5 tries @ 8/10. Expecting new coach positive effect. Conditions will be good. 
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1 week 5 days ago #2890 by Southpaw
Replied by Southpaw on topic Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF
the ABT show taking over in france. absolutely killing me as usual.

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1 week 4 days ago #2894 by chrisdre
Replied by chrisdre on topic Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF
reverse jinx @southpaw ? 😁

Nice bets this weekend so far Brent, Southpaw, also the Highlanders under Jacques.

Had Drua -2.5. Might bet against both Fijian teams for the rest of the season 😬😅 eyes were bleeding during that game 

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1 week 4 days ago #2900 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF
Cheers Chris it was a decent weekend of Super Rugbyand pleased the Reds delivered after dominating the game 

Nice to also catch the points range in the Blues game although you never fell comfortable with bets like that 

The Drua let me down or maybe I am just battling with Force games this season 

I never got involved in the Champions Cup but have got a couple of units riding on Bordeaux today at just shy of 9/10 
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1 week 4 days ago #2902 by Southpaw
Replied by Southpaw on topic Super Rugby Rd 9, Investec Champions Cup QF, Varsity Cup SF
Nice one Brent.

French ladies made me sweat bullets but that over 5.5 tris my biggest bet of weekend and other sports betting results has perked my interest today.

Benetton Exeter over 54,5 @ 10/11

ref not great but overs conditions all day in Treviso, good surface, 20 degrees, no humidity, sunny/dry. 

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