The 2026 Tour de France gets underway on the 4th of July, and we take a look at one of the greatest sporting events of the year from a betting perspective.
We'll be previewing every stage of the Tour, but before the racing begins, let's look at the major outright markets.
Tour de France Winner (Yellow Jersey) – click here to bet
Tadej Pogačar is the clear favourite in what is another exceptionally strong field. He's currently trading at 1.25 to claim a record-equalling fifth Tour de France title, and if everything goes according to form, he will take some stopping.
This is cycling, however, and over three weeks there are countless variables. Mechanical problems, crashes, illness and team tactics can all change the complexion of the race, and there is certainly no shortage of challengers.
Jonas Vingegaard arrives fresh from victory in the Giro d'Italia and is priced at 4.00. Importantly, he didn't have to empty the tank against a relatively modest field, which should leave him well prepared for another three-week battle. Expect him to stay within touching distance before trying to pressure Pogačar in the decisive final week.
French teenage sensation Paul Sexias takes on his 1st Grand Tour and the bookies are showing him plenty of respect at 12.00. He has gone toe to toe in one day races with Pogacar and has given the worldchampion plenty to think about. Untested over 3 weeks and coming off a crash he could be anything this week
Isaac del Toro is available around 19.00, although his biggest obstacle is the fact that he rides alongside Pogačar at UAE Team Emirates. He looked outstanding when winning the Aura Tour, and while victory may be asking a lot, a podium finish is certainly not out of the question.
Remco Evenepoel, riding for Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe, is priced at 23.00. He appears leaner than ever, which will be important as the high mountains have traditionally been where he has struggled to match Pogačar and Vingegaard.
His teammate, Florian Lipowitz, finished on the podium last year and is trading at 26.00. Based on his form this season, he is actually my preferred Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe rider and looks a genuine podium contender.
Juan Ayuso is 34.00 after moving from UAE Team Emirates to Lidl–Trek, where he will have a strong group of climbers supporting his general classification ambitions.
Beyond those names, there are several outsiders available at 67.00 and bigger.
Verdict
Pogačar is undoubtedly the rider to beat, but at odds of 1.25, I won't be investing heavily in a race where almost anything can happen over three weeks.
One market that does interest me is the Straight Forecast, where you must correctly predict first and second place in order. Unsurprisingly, Pogačar/Vingegaard heads the market at 1.61.
However, I like the look of Pogačar followed by Lipowitz, which is trading at 17.00.
Suggested Bet: Straight Forecast 1-2 – Pogačar / Lipowitz at 17.00.
Points Classification (Green Jersey) – click here to bet
The Green Jersey is always one of my favourite betting markets.
Traditionally it's a battle between the pure sprinters, who dominate the flat stages, and the more versatile riders who consistently score points across a wider range of terrain.
This year, however, the points system has again been adjusted to favour the sprinters. With five clear sprint stages, anyone who can't regularly finish in the top three or four on those days is likely to struggle.
Jasper Philipsen heads the market at 2.50, ahead of Tim Merlier (4.00) and Olav Kooij (4.50).
Mads Pedersen, is 6.50, while Biniam Girmay is 9.00.
Pogačar is available at 10.00, but given the revised points structure and that this isn't a jersey he will target, he is an unlikely winner even if he wins multiple stages.
Verdict
My selection is Mads Pedersen.
He's quick enough to feature in the bunch sprints, while also being capable of scoring heavily on tougher stages where the pure sprinters struggle. If Philipsen, Merlier and Kooij split the sprint victories between them, Pedersen's consistency could prove decisive.
Suggested Bet: Mads Pedersen to win the Green Jersey at 6.50.
Mountains Classification (Polka Dot Jersey) – click here to bet
Tadej Pogačar heads this market at 2.25, but I'm prepared to oppose him.
The removal of double points on the final summit finishes makes it easier for riders who aggressively target breakaways to accumulate enough points to beat the general classification contenders.
Lenny Martinez is the leading specialist at 4.00, ahead of Richard Carapaz at 6.00.
This is always a difficult market to bet before the race begins because circumstances change. Riders who lose time early often abandon their GC ambitions and begin targeting stage wins and mountain points instead.
One outsider worth keeping an eye on is Ben Healy, who is available around 41.00.
I'm passing on a pre-race bet, but if I had to make one, Lenny Martinez would be my selection.
Team Classification – click here to bet
The Team Classification is one of the more difficult outright markets because many teams don't actively target it , but at the same time very few teams have the depth required to win it.
UAE Team Emirates XRG are deserved 1.67 favourites. Their incredible climbing depth means there will be mountain stages where they can put significant time into rival teams.
Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe are 5.00, Team Visma | Lease a Bike 9.00, and Netcompany INEOS 10.00.
INEOS are particularly interesting. Without a genuine overall favourite, they may decide to chase stage wins through breakaways, which can sometimes prove very effective in this classification.
Another team that catches the eye is Lidl–Trek at 12.00. With strong supporting Ayuso, they have the depth to challenge throughout the mountains and if in contention may turn their attention to this classification.
Movistar Team completes the leading contenders at 15.00.
I'm happy to take a chance on Lidl–Trek at the prices.
Suggested Bet: Lidl–Trek to win the Team Classification at 12.00.
Bets
- Straight Forecast: Pogačar / Lipowitz – 17.00
- Green Jersey: Mads Pedersen – 6.50
- Team Classification: Lidl–Trek – 12.00
Be sure to look out for our daily stage previews throughout the Tour, and enjoy what promises to be another outstanding edition of one of the world's greatest sporting spectacles.
Prices correct at the time of writing but subject to change
