The FedEx Cup Playoffs continue this week with the second of the three post-season events, the BMW Championship at the Bellerive Country Club.
This is a huge week for anyone still on the bubble, as the field will be cut from 50 players down to just 30 for next week’s season-ending Tour Championship. Only the top 30 in the standings will get through to East Lake, so we can expect four days of very high-quality golf as players fight for their spot in the season finale. Scottie Scheffler heads to Bellerive off the back of his eight-shot demolition of the field at the FedEx St. Jude last week and looks the man to beat once again.
Course
Bellerive Country Club is a historic and demanding par 70 layout that has hosted some of the biggest events in world golf over the years, including the 2018 PGA Championship, where Brooks Koepka took the title. As a par 70 with 12 par 4s, this is another week where par 4 scoring is going to be absolutely crucial. Players who can consistently make pars and birdies across those holes will find themselves in the mix come Sunday, while dropped shots on the par 4s tend to be very tough to claw back given the demanding par 3s and reasonably testing par 5s on offer here.
Beyond par 4 scoring, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach are the two other stats we will be leaning on most heavily this week. Bellerive is a long, tree-lined course that puts a real premium on distance and accuracy from the tee, and players who consistently give themselves manageable second shots have a huge advantage. Once in the fairway, the small, undulating greens demand elite iron play, which is where SG: Approach becomes critical. Combine both of those with quality par 4 scoring and you have the profile of a genuine contender at Bellerive this week.
Past Winners
2025 Scottie Scheffler (United States) -15 2 strokes
2024 Keegan Bradley (United States) -12 1 stroke
2023 Viktor Hovalnd (Norway) -17 2 strokes
2022 Patrick Cantlay (Unites States) -14 1 stroke
2021 Patrick Cantlay (United States) Playoff 1 stroke
As we have become accustomed to, Scottie Scheffler heads the market at 3.80 as the defending champion here and off the back of his dominant St. Jude win last weekend. There is then a three-way tie for second in the market at 17.00, with Ludvig Åberg, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele all sharing that spot. Sam Burns is next in at 21.00, the same price as Cameron Young and Tommy Fleetwood.
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Betting (2026 BMW Championship) – Click here to bet
Scottie Scheffler 3.80
Ludvig Åberg 17.00
Rory McIlroy 17.00
Xander Schauffele 17.00
Sam Burns 21.00
Cameron Young 21.00
Tommy Fleetwood 21.00
SELECTIONS:
Scottie Scheffler at 2.80
It was only a matter of time before we saw Scheffler win another event, and what a perfect time to do it as we head towards the Tour Championship. Scheffler put in a dominant performance last week to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship by a staggering eight shots, finishing on -17. Leading into last week’s win he had recorded two runner-ups and two fourth-place finishes in his previous five starts, with those runner-ups coming at the 3M Open and Travelers Championship. Scheffler is currently ranked 4th on tour for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th for Strokes Gained: Approach, ticking both of our key stats for this week. After last weekend’s dominant win, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Scheffler go on a real run to close out the season, and although 2.80 is not the biggest price, it’s very hard to bet against him this week.
Suggested bet: Scottie Scheffler to win at 2.80.
Sam Burns at 21.00
We are backing Sam Burns again this week after another solid performance last weekend that saw him finish third at the St. Jude Championship. He was right in the mix at the start of the final day but had to watch as Scheffler ran away with it. Burns’ last four results now read two third-place finishes, a runner-up and a 12th, showing he is very much involved at the pointy end of tournaments. Burns’ biggest asset is his putting and he is ranked second on tour for Strokes Gained: Putting, however he also stands out for par 4 scoring, ranked second on tour with an average of 3.95 per par 4. With plenty of par 4s at Bellerive this week and the form he is in, we like him at 21.00 and he could be the man to challenge Scottie.
Suggested bet: Sam Burns each way at 21.00.
Hideki Matsuyama at 26.00
Matsuyama has been putting in solid performance after solid performance on the PGA Tour over the last few weeks. He has now recorded four top-10 finishes in a row across the last four weeks. His best finish of that run came at the 3M Open, where he finished third. Last week saw him shoot -6 to finish tied seventh at the St. Jude Championship. With Matsuyama’s current form, and with there only being 50 players in this week’s field, we can definitely see him grabbing another top-10 finish.
Suggested bet: Hideki Matsuyama top 10 finish at 2.90 with a small each way interest at 26.00.
Adam Scott at 61.00
The Australian continues to play great golf and is my long shot this week. He showed decent form with a 12th place finish last week and when this course hosted the PGA Championship 8 years ago he finished 3rd.
Suggested bet: Adam Scott each way at 61.00
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