The latest Goodforthegame newsletter penned by @BrentGraham with best bets for the weekend 11th, 12th April including rugby, golf and cycling
I am back after a short but enjoyable break and that newsletter win on the unders in Durban 2 weeks ago certainly put me in a better frame of mind, especially after it looked dead and buried at the break.
This weeks newsletter is a bit different to the norm with some thoughts on modelling and a focus on the Masters golf.
Rugby Betting Models
I have never possessed the technical ability to develop a model but over the years I have come across some very interesting people that do including The Betting Stig whose blog was very popular and more recently The Mossman who is a regular on The Handicap.
I was approached this week by a Goodforthegame veteran and regular watcher of the show. He has developed and is looking to refine a rugby betting model.
While I have never developed one, I love the idea and have offered to test it over the coming weeks and will be referencing and in some cases following it in the betting blogs.
My early impressions in this model is that it could be a very useful tool with some refinement needed on the betting prediction front which is what the testing is about.
I am giving it a run in this weeks Super Rugby Pacific blog
THE HANDICAP
I was joined by The Mossman and The Admiral this week and some shortcuts below
Jump to Hurricanes v Blues
Jump to Reds v Crusaders
Jump to Glasgow v Toulon
Jump to Leinster v Sale
Jump to Bordeaux v Toulouse
I will place any bets in the rugby forum thread and I have an early leaning to Bordeaux to beat Toulouse in the battle of 2 French giants and what would be a worthy final in its own right.
BET: 2 units (1-5) Bordeaux win at 0.89/1 at Pokerbet
The Masters: Legal Matter saves me money
I had some issues depositing into my Betxchange account on Wednesday night and I really wanted to take advantage of their top 3 and ties promo with my Masters win bets. I had a hectic Thursday morning including a meeting with attorneys in support of a client and I thought it would be done in good time for me to get my bets on.
Attorneys charge by the hour though and by the time we finished the event had started. I joked to my client I would sue him for the winnings if the bets arrived but I was going for Bryson and Aberg so the legal meeting actually saved me money.
Rory is a massive 6 shots clear and the 4/10 on offer is not a bad price although it has been exactly 30 years since Greg Normans famous collapse against Faldo.
I am not going to oppose Rory but I think his big lead opens up some value in the place markets and here are my bets for the weekend.
1 unit (1-5) Lowry Top 5 at 24/10 at WSB
I was eyeing him for a win bet when I went to sleep and he was 4 back but although his score improved he is 7 back and I will go for a top 5.
1 unit Cam Young winner without Rory at 17/2 at WSB
He was many peoples pre-tournament pick and after a slow start he stormed into the mix yesterday.
0.5 unit Aberg win without Rory at 66/1 and 1 unit a top 10 at 3.25/1 at WSB
He is 12 off Rory but only 4 shots off a top 10 and 6 off a “Win without Rory” result.
Cycling: The Hell of the North
I am really getting back into my cycling (always happens at this time of the year) and tomorrow sees one of the great 1 day monuments Paris Roubaix over the famed cobbles.
The stronger riders will emerge for sure but unlike the Tour of Flanders last week luck in running plays a bigger role.
A man who impressed me last week was Wout Van Aert who was 4th in Flanders. I feel he is more suited to Roubaix and will back him for a top 3.
1 unit (1-5) Van Aert Top 3 at 7/4 at Hollywoodbets
Any additional bets will be placed in the forum thread
Other highlights on Goodforthegame
Enjoy your weekend everyone and let’s hope for a betting interest in the golf that will keep us up into the early hours of Monday.
Cheers
BG
@BrentGraham
