The latest Goodforthegame newsletter penned by @BrentGraham with best bets for the weekend 31st October to 1st November including the United Rugby Championship
Edinburgh delivered our newsletter bet last weekend when they stretched clear of the Lions in the second half.
Overall, it was a good weekend for me, with the only real disappointment being the Munster under 13.5 bet. They raced to 13 points early in the game, and it looked like I'd pulled off a great escape, only for them to score in the final minute and narrow the gap against Leinster.
Talking of Leinster they were missing 18 players last night away to Connacht who were well backed to -3.5, -4.5 levels only for Leinster to win 50-5. The bookies must of cleaned up and fortunately I was on over 46.5 although missed the Lions outright play at 5/2.
With international rugby just around the corner, this week is all about the URC for me. There's also plenty of other sport to keep us entertained, including the big Soweto derby between Orlando Pirates and Kaizer Chiefs, English Premier League football including Liverpool v Arsenal on Sunday. as well as UFC and Formula 1 with previews from WSB.
The Handicap
I always enjoy getting new guests on The Handicap, and on Thursday Wager Warlock joined me to talk URC rugby and take us through the betting model he's in the process of developing.
It was an interesting discussion and I know he has already had a few of the live viewers test it out.
If you missed the show, below are links to some of the key games we discussed, as well as the betting model discussion towards the end of the show.
Jump to Stormers v Ulster
Jump to Bulls v Scarlets
Jump to Munster v Sharks
Jump to Wager Warlocks model demo
Weekend Plays
All URC bets will be posted in our Round 5 blog, which also has regular betting updates.
Bulls to run rampant at Loftus
I'm kicking myself for not getting on the Bulls when they opened at -21.5 against the Scarlets. That's exactly where I handicapped the game, but it was before I'd taken the loss of international players into consideration.
The Scarlets are missing a good few players, and while I wouldn't say the Bulls are at full strength either, they should have more than enough to put this Scarlets side away.
I'm also hoping the bookmakers are reading a little too much into the Scarlets running the Stormers close last weekend and, by contrast, the Bulls being pushed hard by Ulster.
The handicap is now generally around -25.5, although I see there's still -23.5 available at PokerBet, which is tempting.
However, I prefer a bet on the Bulls' team points. The last time they hosted the Scarlets, they ran in 63 points, and the time before that, in 2022, they scored 37.
With the visitors so depleted, I'm backing the Bulls to run up another big score at Loftus.
Bet: 3 units (1–5), Bulls over 45.5 points at 9/10 at PokerBet.
URC Saturday Treble at 7/1
I've put together a three-leg URC treble for Saturday's action, combining a Stormers team-points bet with two outright selections.
Selections:
- Stormers over 37.5 team points at 0.87/1
- Edinburgh to beat Benetton at 0.87/1
- Sharks to beat Munster at 1.30/1
The Stormers should have plenty of attacking opportunities against a depleted Ulster side, and I'm backing them to score at least 38 points.
Edinburgh look well placed to get the better of Benetton, while the Sharks are my value selection at 1.30/1 against a Munster side also affected by international call-ups.
Bet: 1 unit (1-5) URC treble at 7.04/1 with World Sports Betting.
All Three Results Still Possible at Newlands
As much as my betting focus is on rugby this weekend, we should be in for a thrilling final day of Test cricket at Newlands, with all three results still very much possible in the third and final Test between South Africa and Australia.
It's been a frustrating watch at times, with South Africa twice finding themselves in a position to play Australia out of the match, only to let them back in. To be fair, the Australians could probably say exactly the same thing!
The Proteas are slight favourites, but the draw remains a big runner, and Australia are certainly not out of it either.
Latest betting
- South Africa to win: 1.05/1
- Draw: 5/1
- Australia to win: 1.50/1
For those who prefer to take the draw out of the equation, there's also a Draw No Bet market:
- South Africa: 0.73/1
- Australia: 1.10/1
That's all from me for this week. Have a great day!
I'll certainly be spending mine jumping between the couch and the pool, with one screen on the cricket and another on the rugby.
Cheers,
BG