Round 11 of the United Rugby Championship takes place on Friday 30 January and Saturday 31 January, and in this blog we will once again keep a close eye on all things betting-related across the weekend.
All quiet on the betting front
Posted 28 Jan 23h03
Latest handicaps in brackets and Stormers the only 2 point movers
Glasgow Warriors -1.5 (-1.5) v Munster
Benetton Treviso -10.5 (-10.5) v Scarlets
Lions +4.5 (+5.5) v Bulls
Zebre +6.5 (+6.5) v Connacht
Sharks -0.5 (+1.5) v Stormers
Leinster -16.5 (-15.5) v Edinburgh
Ospreys -5.5 (-5.5) v Dragons
Ulster -12.5 (-12.5) v Cardiff Rugby
Handicap as at Tuesday 27 January 15h01
I missed the early handicaps due to work commitments so I am not sure if there have been any moves but the current caps at Betx below
Glasgow Warriors -1.5 v Munster
Benetton Treviso -10.5 v Scarlets
Lions +4.5 v Bulls
Zebre +6.5 v Connacht
Sharks -0.5 v Stormers
Leinster -16.5 v Edinburgh
Ospreys -5.5 v Dragons
Ulster -12.5 v Cardiff Rugby
I got the Lions game right but was a few points out on the Sharks game where I expected a bigger minus
Here are the latest URC outright betting odds:
Posted 26 Jan 09h30
Leinster – 4/5
Stormers – 7/2
Glasgow Warriors – 11/2
Munster – 9/1
Bulls – 9/1
Ulster – 14/1
Sharks – 20/1
Lions – 79/1
Cardiff Rugby – 149/1
Benetton Treviso – 194/1
Connacht – 249/1
Edinburgh – 249/1
Scarlets – 249/1
Ospreys – 249/1
Dragons – 999/1
Zebre – 1999/1
Round 10 Wrap – logic was sound, strategy poor
I called for a weekend of close games, and that is exactly what we got, with a draw and no victory margin greater than 11 points. Unfortunately, I was unable to watch any rugby, so I structured most of my bets around a few 1–12 doubles and did not land the right combinations.
The biggest disappointment was the Edinburgh loss, especially after they had shortened into favouritism. I was also frustrated not to have backed the Sharks on the moneyline, having instead opted for the 22/1 half-time/full-time play. – a great call from Riaan in the rugby forum thread on this one.
From a financial perspective, it was not a damaging weekend due to low stakes, but in terms of momentum, it was certainly a setback.
Table Update
Glasgow Warriors have moved to the top of the table on 39 points, three clear of the Stormers, who suffered their first defeat of the season but still have a game in hand. Leinster and Cardiff sit third and fourth on 35 points, with Munster just one point behind in fifth.
Ulster are next on 32 points, also with a game in hand, before a sizeable gap opens up to the Lions in seventh on 24 points, with the Ospreys three points further back in eighth.
Below them, six teams, led by the Bulls, are clustered within five points of the playoff places, keeping the race for the top eight firmly alive.
Round 11 Fixtures – with handicap projections
Below are the round 11 fixtures with my gut feel on handicaps for the SA games. I imagine the 6 Nations players will be out of action and until I have clarity on this and a feel for the depth of squads I don’t see the value in handicapping.
Benetton v Scarlets – 21:45, Stadio Monigo
Glasgow Warriors v Munster – 21:45, Scotstoun Stadium
Lions +5.5 v Bulls – 14:30, Ellis Park
Sharks -5.5 v Stormers – 17:00, Hollywoodbets Kings Park
Zebre Parma v Connacht – 17:00, Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi
Leinster v Edinburgh – 19:30, Aviva Stadium
Ospreys v Dragons – 21:45, Electric Brewery Field
Ulster v Cardiff Rugby – 21:45, Affidea Stadium
I will be back when we have handicaps and hopefully an outright betting update.
