Tournament favourites South Africa clash with Wales in the Nations Championship in Durban on Saturday and the pre-match bookmakers handicap line is a big number.
South Africa vs Wales, Saturday 18th July, Durban, KO 17:40 (South African time)
Referee: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Assistant Referees: Pierre Brousset (France), James Doleman (New Zealand)
TMO: Olly Hodges (Ireland)
Weather Forecast - Durban
South Africa:
The Boks top the Southern Hemisphere standings level on points with New Zealand with both sides having earned the maximum of 10 log points after bonus point wins in the first two rounds.
Coach Rassie Erasmus made 10 changes to his starting line up for last week’s clash with Scotland at Loftus and his side came through with a 42-28 victory. The margin of victory was a touch lower than where the handicap line had settled with South Africa scoring 6 tries to Scotland’s 4. The teams went into half time level and it was only in the closing stages of the game when South Africa got enough daylight on the scoreboard. Papier, Roos, Louw, Willemse, Porthen and Kriel crossed for the Boks and Pollard was successful with all 5 of his conversions.
The Boks saw off England 45-21 at Ellis Park in Round 1, securing a bonus point to lead the Southern Hemisphere half of the log ahead of New Zealand on points difference. South Africa came flying out of the blocks and were 17-0 up in 12 minutes through tries from Thomas du Toit, Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse but England fought back and the Boks only led 17-14 at half time. In the second d half South Africa pulled away again with further tries from Williams, Kriel, Marx, and Dixon. Kolbe converted 5 of the 7 tries.
In the Nations Championship outright betting markets South Africa are now 9/10 favourites to win the title with Hollywoodbets. Pre-tournament they were trading at 18/10.
Nations Championship Results and Fixtures: : R1 England (h) won 45-21, R2 Scotland (h) won 42-28, R3 Wales (h), R4 Italy (a), R5 France (a), R6 Ireland (a)
Wales:
Wales are currently fifth on the Northen Hemisphere log with one win and one defeat against their name and they have 5 log points.
Round 2 saw Wales go down 35-21 to Argentina in San Juan. They conceded 4 tries in the first half and looked to be heading for a significant hiding but the second half was pretty ordinary. Wales managed 3 tries through Lake, Carre and Warren but left South America empty handed.
In the opening round of matches Wales took on Fiji in Cardiff and they came through with a 39-24 victory. The Welsh tries came from Morgan (2), Carre, Adams, Elias and James to secure a bonus point whilst Fiji scored 3 tries and failed to pick up any log points.
In the Nations Championship outright betting markets Wales can be backed at 250/1 to win the title with Hollywoodbets
Nations Championship Results and Fixtures: R1 Fiji (a) staged in Cardiff) won 39-24, R2 Argentina (a) lost 35-21, R2 South Africa (a), R4 Japan (h), R5 New Zealand (h), R6 Australia (h)
Recent Head to Head
Nov 2025 – International – Cardiff Wales 0-73 South Africa
Nov 2024 – International – Cardiff – Wales 12–45 South Africa
Jun 2024 – International – London (Twickenham) – South Africa 41–13 Wales
Aug 2023 – International – Cardiff – Wales 16–52 South Africa
Jul 2022 – International – Cape Town - South Africa 30-14 Wales
Team News
South Africa: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Jaco Williams, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Vusi Moyo, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Paul de Villiers, 5 Ruben van Heerden, 4 Cobus Wiese, 3 Carlu Sadie, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Gerhard Steenekamp
Replacements: 16 Andre-Hugo Venter, 17 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 Ben-Jason Dixon, 20 Marco van Staden, 21 Herschel Jantjies, 22 Manie Libbok, 23 Damian Willemse
Wales: tbc
The Betting
Average early show, subject to change
South Africa -41.5 points at 9/10
Wales +41.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
To follow
Bets: to follow
More Rugby Bets
This week we have previews and Brent Graham’s bets for New Zealand vs Ireland, Australia vs Italy, South Africa vs Wales and Argentina vs England. More Nations Series and World U20 Championship bets from Brent and other members of our community will be posted weekly rugby thread on our brand new discussion forum. If you haven't done so already, register a forum account here.
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.