The regular season is over and six teams remain in the hunt for the Super Rugby Pacific title. The qualifying playoffs are upon us and in this blog we keep an eye on all things betting-related, starting with my handicap projections.
Round 16 Results
Crusaders 47 Hurricanes 14
There was plenty of money for the Crusaders and they were eventually backed into double-digit favourites (from -3.5) once it became clear the Hurricanes didn’t need to win the game and would prefer to avoid a playoff trip against the Crusaders.
My bet here was Crusaders -4.5 first-half handicap and that arrived in some style as the hosts dominated from the outset.
Reds 45 Fijian Drua 24
This wasn’t a game I was especially strong on, but I decided to go for over 60.5 points. It didn’t exactly arrive comfortably, but there was still a bit of time left when the total was cleared.
From a handicap perspective the Reds closed around -16.5, so the late disallowed try for the Drua proved massive for handicap punters.
Brumbies 19 Moana Pasifika 21
The Brumbies were huge favourites here, closing around -24.5 with a total points line of 66.5. I decided to stay away from the game and that proved to be the right call.
I was leaning towards points, but instead Moana produced one of the biggest upsets of the season to claim a famous win and their 1st of the season.
Chiefs 59 Blues 34
This was my major disappointment of the weekend. I thought a motivated Blues side could really challenge the Chiefs and when they raced into a 10-0 lead things were looking promising.
But after that the Blues became their own worst enemies with errors and ill-discipline proving costly. The Chiefs, despite missing a few players, were hugely impressive and comfortably covered the -5.5 handicap.
Western Force 31 Waratahs 25
The total points line was backed down during the week from 54.5 to 50.5.
I expected a close contest and took the Force to win by 1-12 points at odds of 37/20. In the end that bet arrived and I had a decent weekend overall in Super Rugby.
Qualifying Finals Fixtures and Projected Handicaps
Posted 31 May 09h20
Below are the qualifying finals fixtures together with my early projected handicaps. I will compare them to the bookmakers once the markets fully settle later today, tomorrow or on Monday.
- Hurricanes -18.5 vs ACT Brumbies
- Crusaders -11.5 vs Blues
- Chiefs -15.5 vs Queensland Reds
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