Rugby Championship Week 5, URC Rd 1, NPC wk 9, Prem, Top 14 + other rugby

Brent Graham wrote:

URC Blog updated with teams and probably my biggest play of the opening weekend 

Over 56.5 at 9/10 in Bulls game 

Am on same bet at 10/11. My form is cold so I hope this is the game to turn things around, as well as nz Canada overs. 

URC Blog updated with final bets 

Cardiff -6.5 at 9/10 - I see Sportingbet are -10.5 

This is 1st leg of my Oracle squash bet which I am still to truly figure out 

Not punting the other 3 directly and a 1-12 points "leans" treble at 13/1 Edi, Munster, Connacht 

Any opinion on the top 14 games this weekend .?

I'm going 

UBB to win at 1.75 strong team, Stade Français never ceases to disappoint nowadays so despite their strong performance last week it will likely be a close game that should lean into UBB which sent a very strong almost A team.

La Rochelle -17 @1.45 ( or maybe La Rochelle over 35 or 40 at 1.45/1.85 , or all of these )
Perpignan is terrible, and send their B team + LR didn't play last week so they will be sharp, even if it's not their best team imo

Pau to win @1.30 ( maybe in a parlay ) + eventually Pau to win and overs ( 2.25 ) or Pau to win & o30.5 ( 1.90 ) since both team are high scoring teams

Racing win @ 1.22 ( most likely in a parlay ) and maybe RM and over @ 54.5, or maybe Clermont+something as ASM looks to be finding their rythm since Plummer arrived.
On the other hand I find the new pair of RM92 to be really promising, they've been shining hard ( Ugo Seunes & Leo Carbonneau ).

Montpellier -4 @ 1.50, Montauban is a casting mistake, they'll probably be virtually sent back to prod2 before day 13

Castres +22 @ 1.70 solo bet and Castres +28 @ 1.30 in a parlay : not sure on this one but Toulouse Castres is a derby and I've been far from convinced with Toulouse's performances since the championship's resume.
If Louis Le Brun was playing I would be very solid on my Castres + pick but Toulouse could have a pride reaction and put on a vintage clinic as the weather is fine here ( I'm in Toulouse ).


In rugby championship I landed Aus+15 ( which was obvious ) but I'm not sold on the Boks vs Pumas game.
I don't see the boks mauling the argentinians like they mauled the AB ( who kinda gave up imo ) in second half, so there might be value on the +Arg or unders points. 
 

some rain in Joburg so conditions may not be as good in Pretoria as I expected 

I am standing firm though and still like overs 

Hey lads,

New site looks decent well done.

I like one of the two women's underdogs to win today.

So If France fail to win in the game just started versus nz........

I will be on........

-Canada to win, 3.20, v England, 2 units


If France beat nz then no bet.

Cheers
 

Ending up splitting my stake on Bok game between over 4.5 bok tries and over 32.5 bok pts after NZ missed bonus point. At current state both looked doomed. 

after tonights game tke BOKKE are not just #1(++) in the world, the next best team is only #4 (and wow by 20 the English lassies)

Overall a profitable weekend for me but wow did I get the Bok game wrong. 
Strange game and unders looked well in until they bizarre "drop out" from Kolbe - that almost set the tone for the match 

 

Pablo , bayonne v Toulon. Anything catch your eye for this game or any advice ? Thanks 

BigRassie wrote:

Pablo , bayonne v Toulon. Anything catch your eye for this game or any
advice ? Thanks
 

I went Toulon +6 ha @1.709 1u early on, just one unit not big confidence as I thing in a tight match. Both teams going strong.

Maybe u50.5 1u as well, my expected line around 44-45 points.