All Racing Tips w/c 26th January including WSB Met

The MET and cracking card of features to look forward to on Saturday at Kenilworth, will have stab at previewing the whole card nearer to the weekend. 

No local meeting on Monday, schedule for the week is as follows:

Tuesday Vaal
Wednesday Greyville
Thursday Vaal
Friday Fairview
Saturday Kenilworth
Sunday Turffontein

Winning Form previews to follow and all this week's racing tips are most welcome here
 

Latest betting for the MET on Saturday, South labelled Garrix as n early play on last week's thread, 

See IT Again 3/1
8 on 18 4/1
The Real Prince 4/1
Sail The Seas 8/1
Gladatorian 16/1
Okavango 22/1
Garrix 25/1
Cosmic Speed 33/1
The Equator 33/1
Native Ruler 55/1
Legal Counsel 66/1

Prices from WSB correct as of 08:00 26th Jan, subject to change

Thanks Chris. We're in for a cracking raceday on Saturday.

A few early value calls for me (All odds @WSB Monday 09h00):

Race 1 - St. Harry (19/10) - Opened 22/10. Backed off the boards and flew home to win by a tight margin on debut. Looks really special and will back him every time he lines up. 

Race 2 - Eric Liddell (9/2) - Opened 6/1. Highly rated by the stable. Fourie up.

Race 7 - Quickstepgal (9/1). Drawn 12 out of 14. Won the Cape Fillies Guineas impressively over C&D. I feel Double Grand Slam (drawn 10 here), who had her colours lowered in this race last year, is no banker. 

Race 9 - Fox On The Run (6/1) - Flew home from a wide draw in the Cape Guineas. Fourie retains the ride.
 

Vaal Tuesday

Race 2 - Lady Lancaster (16/1) - Improving with every run, apprentice claims 4kg. Should be in the money.

Race 3 - War Talk (22/10) - I nearly ended up with egg on my face last time for taking her on. Draw of 11/14 shouldn't be too big a problem. 

Race 4 - Texas Missile (7/2). 2/2 over this distance. Well in at the weights. Stablemate, One More Star, the danger. 

Thanks for the early thoughts Jacques. I might keep my racing ammo for Saturday, last weekend didn't go well at all. Will post my MET day picks Thursday hopefully.

Winning Form preview for the Vaal on Tuesday  is available here

Greyville on Wednesday, Winning Form preview  is available here

Thanks for early thoughts Jacques, I also thought I would start early so if any of the prices are out, I started this on Tuesday. I will post anything for the later races in the next couple of days.

Race 1
Querari Dancer @ 7/1 (HWB)
I liked this one first time up and she ran on nicely to beat the 2nd fav and Marseiles. I remember stable saying wouldn’t be ready and would be looking for a but further. So they have held her back and stepping her up over another 300m, hoping that will help and the way she went away from the others, hoping like Jacques one St Harrys, that she will be looking for the bit further and the extra 2.5kg swing helps her. Jockey change is a bit of a concern but know some of them have contracts etc with owners.Vibe Check @ 25/1 (WSB)
Trainer knows how to get them ready first time out and like the breeding. Half sibling Tulip Field showed some nice early pace and looks like could be decent sort and other siblings all showed early pace. I am hoping that as stable jock for Marshall yard Sean Veale had choice and Gavin got other one as he is down to ride for the owners of later horses.
The way St Harry won last time as Jacques said was super impressive as well and could show improvement to win well. 

Race 2
Fast & Free @ 33/1 (HWB/WSB)
I know and respect the stable comments of the Snaiths and there 2 top 3 year olds and am ready to have egg splatter all over my face. Fast and Free has beaten the fav and is now getting 3kg’s from him and same with 3rd fav World First who looks decent. Note to Self could be an improving sort and come out and prove he is above average and win, but 61,5kg is a lot of weight for a 3 year old over this distance, but I am happy to take 19/10 top 6 with Fast & Free, drawn 6. And if we put a line through the last run where I think it could have just been to far to soon, has some decent form. And if you look at the betting there was money for him so they must have thought he stood a chance last time, @ 33/1 I just think he is huge value.

Race 3
Top 2 in the betting look hard to beat, and if I had to banker a horse in my Bi-pot and PA, would be Holding Thumbs.My Outsider is Master Redoute @ 20/1 (WSB)
Hasn’t shown much in the warm up races but won this race last year carrying the same weight and won the Gold Cup carrying half a Kg less. So we knows can stay and carry the weight like the fav. I will take a small punt to win but most will be weighted to places, Top 4 @ 6/4 which I think is decent. 

Race 4
Rhydian @ 16/1 (HWB)
One who I thought could train on to be above average. Against some of the more favored older horses, is getting weight from them and could surprise. Could drift closer to the big day but I have taken a small punt on this one early.
Midnight Lady @ 22/1 (WSB)
Won well first time out and then looked to disappoint. Gets decent jock up and nice draw, might pop up.If Mauritius Kestrel was better drawn I would really like this one, but drawn 18 and been a front runner, will wait a bit closer to the time to see the forecast. But probably one of the harder races on the day I think. 

Race 5
And just to prove me wrong about race 4, Race 5 comes along and I am looking at it scratching my head. LOL.
Surjay @ 16/1 (WSB)
Thought last run was excellent over slightly shorter than optimum. Will love the extra hundred meters and holds a lot on previous runs.
Dance Variety @ 18/1 (WSB)
Know getting old, but if you like US of A, then with weight turn around on previous runs should finish ahead. Worth at the price.

And my complete mad one if those aren’t bad, is Absolutely Yes. No weight and has done well over the shorter in early years.

Will post rest tomorrow

Thanks a mill kt, we are likely to be on the same page with Rhydian, has cost me plenty having followed it since a baby when I really thought he was a stakes horse in the making. 

A couple more Winning Form Punters challenge previews. 

Vaal on Thursday   

Fairview on Friday

Thanks Mackem, yeah really thought he was progressive. Oh well here is my balance up to Race 10. We look later in the week, need to get some work done now. LOL.

Race 6
Tough Race. LOL
Power & Glory @ 8/1 (WSB)
Last run was super impressive, finished just behind the well thought of Roland Garos and got no penalty. Yes this is a huge step up, but he is only carrying 51Kg’s and the best drawn of the Snaith lot. The rest are all good sorts and will take a lot of beating, but even money for Top 5 is good enough for me.
My complete outsider is Billy Bowlegs. A horse I always thought a lot of and not raced on, not shown much but the last runs over similar trip and in decent going, were not bad giving weight to Garrix, Gallic Dream and The Real Prince. No with claimer only carrying 51.5Kg’s. Worth a shot @ 33/1 and 11/5 Top 6. 

Race 7
Reet Petite @ 13/2 (Betway)
Tough one to call as Fourie jumped onto stable companion. But I think the 5Kg’s could make the difference, and sure they will use Fatal Flaw as the hair again and make sure it’s a proper run race, well I hope so. Heavily weighted to places @ 9/10 top 4.

Race 8
Cosmic Speed @ 22/1 (WSB)
I am sure you will be able to get better price closer to the time, but I will keep looking. This one to me is the unexposed one over this distance, a couple of the siblings saw out this trip, and been out of a Silvano mare should have the stamina. Whether he is good enough Saturday will tell. I also like Souths Garrix, think it has a good chance.

Race 9
Better Man @ 9/1 (WSB)
Lightly raced but only one as far as I can see that has been the distance and was kept out of the Guinea’s maybe for this race, not sure. Bit surprised by Jock as thought Lerena was contracted to ride for the family and has jumped on the Muscutt runner. But either way happy with De Melo and has some room to improve.

Race 10
Call me Secret @ 10/1
Doesn’t look owner or stable elect, by jockey choice, but the jocks get it wrong sometimes. On a line through the fillies Guineas getting 3Kg from Princess Gaul Who holds a lot of the more favored runners on previous runs. Also only had 4 runs and thought the Guineas run was more than decent.

Enjoy the racing

Thanks for the thoughts Kt, really interesting reading and learning from your betting strategy as well. I like the Fast and Free pick in Race 2. On their earlier meeting, he has Eric Liddell well beaten as you pointed out. The 19/10 for a top 6 is an excellent find. We will find out on Saturday if EL just had a bad day that day or if F&F is the better horse at this stage. Will also take some of the 33/1 on offer currently. Can't hurt. 

The "War Talk race" (Vaal Race 3) yesterday had me thinking afterwards : Despite the wide draw, she was backed heavily and bankered by many in the P/A, seen as a guaranteed top 3 place bet in many accas. Subsequently ran a well-beaten 5th after going around runners and having nothing left in the tank at the end. (I also thought no chance of not getting a top 3 at least). The winner, Chickasaw, was fancied and the trainer, in pre-race comments, reckoned they only had War Talk to beat. NOW: Chickasaw jumped 10/1, 4th in the betting, and won a close call. Top 6 placing odds was about the same as War Talk was for a top 3 placing. The safer bet between the two would have been Chickasaw Top 6 even had she not won. Form, betting and trainer confidence suggested that she couldn't miss the top 6. Really gave me something to consider and implement in future. (Easier said than done though  )

*UPDATE* - QUICKSTEPGAL - Scratched - Majorca Stakes Race 7 Saturday

Saturday MET Day, 3 more races to work on 

Summary of picks  a bit of justification for each one on this preview   

Approx odds quoted, subject to change 

Race 1 with Jacques on St. Harry (18/10) 
Race 2 Each way Bel Canto Dream (16/1) 
Race 3 Holding Thumbs (18/10) 
Race 4 Miraculous (7/1) (and Rhydian with kt at 16's)
Race 5 Teflon Man (10/1) 
Race 6 Raven Black (8/1) 
Race 7 Minogue to run into the first 3 places (5/2) 
Race 8 See It Again (11/4) 
Race 9 Randolph Hearst (11/4) 

Races 10,11 and 12 to follow

great thoughts lads. will try and add, my picks below -

RACE 1 - Boxed exacta ST HARRY, LADY NANCY 
A lot of talk about the hot favourite, if he gets beaten i’m siding with LN who ran a good race behind him last time out, also didn’t have best of starts like STH. Big respect to the snaith runners and this is a very competitive field if favourite flops, so won’t get too involved. 

RACE 2 - WORLD FIRST @ 13/2 ew.
Crying out for more ground, the 2000m with long straight will suit based on last 2 wins. 

RACE 4 - INFLUENCE @ 8/1 ew.
Not a confident pick as a bit of an unknown quantity this horse but stable appear to rate him and some very mixed formlines in balance of field. 

RACE 5 - TEFLON MAN @ 12/1 ew.
The last run was a much needed return to form, had a poor start and was travelling really well 300m out, just found a few too good on the day. 

RACE 6 - GALLIC DREAM @ 12/1 ew.
Formline from last run franked by one i backed,  I SALUTE YOU, and comes into this race with strong course/distance form. 

RACE 7 - MIA MOO @ 20/1 ew.
I always try to beat the favourite in this race but i’m a bit stumped, field is wide open without top one. Will try a small ew MM, heavily backed last time but ran so poor, but on previous form must be a danger. The 1600m is an unknown but will take my chances as breeding suggests should be okay for her. 

MET - still firm on GARRIX @ 20/1 ew.
Won’t add any others given small field. 

RACE 10 - MAI SENSATION @ 12.5/1 ew. 
Filly sticks in my head from when she ran 2nd in the merchants july day as a 3yr old filly against grade 1 level male horses. Not a clear run last time out and think at this level she’s a big runner. 

RACE 11 - TIME FOR LOVE @ 18/1 ew.
This race screams upset to me, looking at TFL she was super consistent all career bar last 2 runs. In past she has run close to some really good fillies, and If bounces back to form i make her a lurker.

RACE 12 - ROCKANDROLLIN @ 14/1 ew.
Nicely bred import who on breeding is going to be better over some ground, yard tend to have good days on big meetings like this.

good racing.

i try to put my own picks up before watching the preview shows, just sped thru the wsb met preview - my word never seen justin so bullish on a horse, DGS, he is not having any talk of her being beaten! price has crashed, but sounds like DGS and HAPPY VERSE is the double punters are smashing into.

Thanks for the great thoughts guys, love reading through them, and thanks Jacques. Yeah I personally think Eric Liddel could have had a bad day, cause next time out he won easily. And as we have all heard, horses make idiots out of us, and I am normally the idiot financing the bookies new Porchce or soccer club sponsorship. LOL. Yeah as you guys will know I struggle to take a fav at short odds, even if I think it should win, which is stupid.

South I also looked at Mia Moo and nearly posted her, but like you was worried about the 1600m, so took a look last night again before reading yours, and like you say on breeding should get it. I went back watched her run behind Gimme A Nother @ Turffontein, and I dont think it was she didnt see it out. But also the Turffies 1600m is a lot more challenging than most. So will probably follow you there.

I also don't watch the previews or comments till afterwards, and will do that tonight or tomorrow. I will listen to the stable comments as I really like the Crawford and Woodruff comments, they always honest and give you a fair expectation.

Good luck all, hope we all get some wins.

Chris wrote:

Saturday MET Day, 3 more races to work on 

Summary of picks  a bit of justification for each one on this preview   

Approx odds quoted, subject to change 

Race 1 with Jacques on St. Harry (18/10) 
Race 2 Each way Bel Canto Dream (16/1) 
Race 3 Holding Thumbs (18/10) 
Race 4 Miraculous (7/1) (and Rhydian with kt at 16's)
Race 5 Teflon Man (10/1) 
Race 6 Raven Black (8/1) 
Race 7 Minogue to run into the first 3 places (5/2) 
Race 8 See It Again (11/4) 
Race 9 Randolph Hearst (11/4) 

Races 10,11 and 12 to follow

My remaining picks for the last 3 races 

Race 10: Babelicious (8/1)
Race 11: Following South with Time For Love each way (16/1)
Race 12: United Front Each Way 25/1 

Great stuff lads, best MET forum thread we have ever had, anyone else wanting to share their picks, please do so.

Cheers

Winning Form's Punters Challenge preview for MET Day  is available here

I caught up with Hilton Hasson to talk WSB Met and he has me excited about the undercard