URC Week 2, Gallagher Prem, NPC, Top14 + other rugby 28 Sep to 4 Oct

After a great start to the week where I landed all 3 Friday night games (including the newsletter treble) I gave some back on Sunday and then all of it on Sunday where I made the call to go unders only for 80 points to flow. 

The URC Blog is up with a betting review of week 1 of the URC and I will have my projected handicaps up shortly 

My projected handicaps below - anything stand out as wildly off? 

Cardiff -12.5 v Zebre
Edinburgh +3.5 v Stormers
Benetton -2.5 v Connacht
Lions -9.5 v Ospreys
Dragons -8.5 v Scarlets
Sharks +5.5 v Leinster ( I am assuming Leinster go full strength)
Glasgow Warriors -12.5 v Ulster
Munster +4.5 v Bulls

Watched some Scarlets v Cardiff and maybe a quarter of the Zebre v Bulls. Anything under three scores and I will probably take Cardiff.

Brent Graham wrote:

My projected handicaps below - anything stand out as wildly off? 

Cardiff -12.5 v Zebre
Edinburgh +3.5 v Stormers
Benetton -2.5 v Connacht
Lions -9.5 v Ospreys
Dragons -8.5 v Scarlets
Sharks +5.5 v Leinster ( I am assuming Leinster go full strength)
Glasgow Warriors -12.5 v Ulster
Munster +4.5 v Bulls

I'm hoping for Edinburgh to open -3.5. Always tough to beat at home. Pierre Schoeman and Harry Paterson should be available for selection, Ewan Ashman might return. Darcy Graham (bicep, 12 weeks), Duhan van der Merwe (ankle 1-2 weeks) and Wes Goosen (hamstring) out. On Stormers should Edinburgh open with any minus.

Early URC doubles:

Stormers x Bulls @ 8/1
Stormers +4.5 x Bulls +4.5 @ 57/20

Stormers could have Mchunu, Kolisi and Dixon available. 

Hello everyone,

There might be a good opportunity to bet on Castres in the Top 14 this weekend; they are hosting Toulouse, a team dealing with numerous injuries and forced to rest key players covered by federation agreements. Another important point is that they have three consecutive home games coming up. I’ve attached an article so you can get an idea of ​​the situation.

www.blog-rct.com/21-absents-et-des-cadre...-rajeunie-a-castres/

With Toulouse, injuries dont seem to matter and they still produce champagne rugby just like last Sunday.

JacquesT wrote:

Early URC doubles:

Stormers x Bulls @ 8/1
Stormers +4.5 x Bulls +4.5 @ 57/20

Stormers could have Mchunu, Kolisi and Dixon available. 

Stormers 9/10 now after teams have been announced. Bulls 2/1 in to 13/10. Munster much stronger line-up than the past weekend so purely keeping the Bulls bet as it represents value. The surprise to me is Leinster 14/10 win and +3.5 cap. Still not a full strength Leinster line-up but Sharks are starting with Esterhuizen, du Toit  and vd Merwe with Nche, Etzebeth & Hooker on the bench. Those guys played a hard test match Sunday afternoon down under, had to fly back Monday or Tuesday and have some rest somewhere in between. Probably only having one or two training sessions with the team. They have been part of the Bok squad for the last 2-3 months so are unlikely to have had any pre-season training with the Sharks. Feel this might be more of a disruption for the Sharks and it would have been better to give them the weekend off and start next week. 

Leinster +3 @ 1/1 with WSB

URC Blog updated with 1st bet 

Connacht win at 13/10 

Blog updated 

Under 52.5 Cardiff v Zebre at 0.87/1 

Looks like rain in Edinburgh and have added 

Under 48.5 points at 10/11 in that one 

I've taken Edinburgh under 23.5 @ 10/11 and Siya Kolisi Stormers first try scorer @ 18/1

URC Blog updated with 1st Saturday bet 

Newsletter readers would of seen this one 

Over 57.5 Lions v Ospreys at 0.93/1 

A slight profit week , enough to buy takeaways Sunday night LOL . A busy week at work and I seem to have missed all the value , like the plus Stormers and unders but I was slow off the mark, Stormers now minus 2.5 and points 42.5 . Keeping an eye on the weather Edinburgh though. 

Exeter were disappointing last week but the plus 14.5 against Bath is my first interest , expecting a much improved effort whilst I do rate Gloucester this season. I like Benetton minus 0.5 at 4/5 . 
 

Looking at the weather radar, it looks like the rain will clear Edinburgh at around KO time so I've gone over 42,5 :-o

Edit: what a joke, 3-0 half time with decent conditions.