The latest Goodforthegame newsletter penned by @BrentGraham with best bets for the weekend 13th to 15th November including Nations Championship rugby
I was pumped up heading into last week's internationals, but it didn't take long for me to be brought back down to earth!
Argentina were absolutely awful against an impressive Irish side, and although a couple of big wins on New Zealand minus and their points overs put me back ahead for the weekend, the worst was saved for last as Australia produced a dismal showing against England.
On we march into Round 5 of the Nations Championship, where there are some massive handicaps this weekend, but also a couple of cracking fixtures.
All my Nations Championship bets will be posted in the Round 5 betting blog, where I'll also be adding weather forecasts, betting updates and any other information that might be useful as we approach kickoff.
The Handicap – A new face joins the show
It's always nice to welcome a new guest, although I almost felt like I needed to ask Victor for his ID when he joined The Mossman and me last night!
Victor is based in Spain and is a big rugby punting fan. It was great having him on the show and getting a fresh perspective on the weekend's matches.
Between the two of us, though, we had our fair share of technical difficulties. My Wi-Fi went on one of its regular walkabouts, and Victor also had a few connectivity issues.
Despite that, we had a good chat about all six matches, and it's always interesting to hear a new viewpoint.
Shortcuts to each match:
Click here for France v South Africa
Click here for Italy v Argentina
Click here for Wales v New Zealand
Click here for England v Japan
Click here for Ireland v Fiji chat
Click here for Scotland v Australia
Weekend Plays – New Zealand to raise their bat
New Zealand have fallen well behind South Africa on points difference, and in retrospect I could probably have waited another week before backing the All Blacks to win the tournament, with 7/2 now freely available.
My money is down, though, and I just have to hope they either make a serious dent in that points difference or South Africa drop a bonus point somewhere along the line.
The All Blacks face Wales tomorrow, and the handicap is ranging from -31.5 to -33.5.
I expect New Zealand to go about their business as usual early on, but if they start pulling clear, I think they'll keep their foot firmly on the pedal in an effort to narrow the points difference gap with South Africa.
Their team points line is already edging into the high 40s, but World Sports Betting still have 8/10 available on over 46.5, and that's where I'm heading. If this price disappears I am happy to back them at anything under 50.
Bet: 3 units (1–5), New Zealand over 46.5 team points at 8/10 at World Sports Betting
A 10/1 four-leg rugby accumulator
I'm also going to have a crack at a four-leg accumulator, covering four of the other five matches.
I'm leaving Italy v Argentina out for now, as I'm still very undecided on that game.
The four selections are:
- France v South Africa: Under 59.5 points at 0.73/1
- England v Japan: England over 49.5 team points at 10/11
- Ireland v Fiji: Ireland -12.5 first-half handicap at 10/11
- Scotland v Australia: Australia +8.5 at 0.87/1
Bet: 1 unit (1-5) at 10.80/1 at WSB
I'm clearly a glutton for punishment when it comes to Australia, but I'm giving the Wallabies another chance after last weekend's disappointment!
The Handicap Betting Game
Thanks to everyone who joined the Handicap Betting Game last week, and apologies to those whose initial registration link took them straight into ChatGPT!
The game is still very much in the testing stage, and I sent an email earlier today to everyone who registered, explaining some of the thinking behind the game and what we're hoping to build in the future.
The idea is to make picking the weekend's rugby handicaps a little more interesting, and your participation and feedback will help us fine-tune things before the full launch.
If you haven't tried it yet and fancy giving it a bash this weekend, we'd love to have you involved.
Click here to have a go at this weekend's handicaps
Other Highlights on Goodforthegame
There's plenty of other sporting action to look forward to this weekend.
UFC 334: The UFC preview is up, courtesy of World Sports Betting.
Horse Racing: We have previews for the meetings at Kenilworth and Turffontein, powered by Hollywoodbets
Football: South Africa take on Kenya tonight at 18:00 in an Africa Cup of Nations qualifier, and Chris has a preview and betting selections. Read the preview here
Finally, I'm really looking forward to France v South Africa tonight, particularly seeing how Antoine Dupont gets on at flyhalf.
It's a fascinating contest, and although the Springboks are strong favourites, I certainly wouldn't write the French off.
Enjoy the weekend's sport, and all of the best to those punting!
Cheers
BG