The latest Goodforthegame newsletter penned by @BrentGraham with best bets for the weekend 6th to 8th November including Nations Championship rugby
he Bulls delivered on the overs last week in what turned out to be another up-and-down weekend for me, with some nice wins mixed in with a few disappointing losses. Overall, though, I finished ahead of the bookmakers and I'm ready to get stuck into this week's internationals.
The Nations Championship takes centre stage this weekend, and we've got individual betting previews up for all six matches. I'll also be posting all my bets and any updates in the Nations Championship Round 4 betting blog.
The Handicap
I was joined by the Mossman on last night's edition of The Handicap, where we took a look at the weekend's internationals.
If you missed the show, here are some links to jump straight to our discussions on the key matches:
- Ireland v Argentina – Click here to watch, and click here for the Goodforthegame Preview
- Italy v South Africa – Click here to watch, and click here for the Goodforthegame Preview
- Scotland v New Zealand – Click here to watch, and click here for the Goodforthegame Preview
- England v Australia – Click here to watch, and click here for the Goodforthegame Preview
Rugby Betting Game
I've been working on a new rugby betting game, which is still very much in the testing stages. The plan is to have the finished version ready to launch around the Six Nations next year.
In the meantime, I'd love to get a few of you involved in testing it.
If you'd like to give it a go, click here to sign up for our Nations Championship competition, which will run over four weeks.
There are no prizes at this stage, as the focus is on testing the game and ironing out any issues. I'd really appreciate your feedback, particularly on what works, what doesn't, and what features you'd like to see in the final version.
Please email me
Weekend Plays
I'll be updating the betting blog with my selections throughout the weekend, so keep an eye on it for the latest bets and any changes in the markets.
New Zealand to Win the Nations Championship
My first play this weekend is a long-term bet on the tournament, and one I've been eyeing up for some time.
South Africa are even-money favourites to win the Nations Championship, with New Zealand available at 3/1, and I think the All Blacks represent excellent value at that price.
The two teams are currently level on points at the top of the Southern Hemisphere standings, with South Africa holding the advantage on points difference. You would probably expect the Springboks to extend that advantage against Italy this weekend, so part of me is tempted to hold back and see whether a bigger price becomes available.
At the same time, I think this might be the moment to get involved.
South Africa certainly have the tougher remaining schedule, with France and Ireland to come in successive weeks after their trip to Italy. New Zealand, meanwhile, face England and Wales after this weekend's match against Scotland.
Make no mistake, those are not guaranteed wins for the All Blacks (well the Wales game probably is), particularly against England at Twickenham. However, I would be surprised if New Zealand failed to win all three of their remaining matches, and I fancy them to pick up bonus points along the way.
I cannot say the same with as much confidence about South Africa, particularly with those difficult trips to France and Ireland still to come.
It's very rare that I go in with a maximum stake, but I think the 3/1 on New Zealand is simply too big given how closely matched the two sides are and the respective fixtures they have remaining.
A more conservative option would be to take the 5/4 (25/20) available on New Zealand to finish top of the Southern Hemisphere group. However, I would expect the All Blacks to start favourites in any final they reach, and there should also be opportunities to trade the outright position should they make it that far and that will be better than the 5/4 on offer.
Bet: 5 units (1–5), New Zealand to win the Nations Championship at 3/1 at Hollywoodbets
Argentina and Australia Double
I'm expecting strong showings from the Southern Hemisphere sides this weekend and got on the New Zealand -8.5 early thanks to Southpaw’s forum post, and my best remaining handicap bet, with some influence from Hanrick and The Mossman, is Australia +8.5 points against England.
England are a strong side and will be difficult to beat at Twickenham, but I expect Australia to be competitive throughout. The Wallabies have enough attacking quality to trouble England, and I think an 8.5-point start is generous.
I also like Argentina against Ireland tonight. I've already backed the Pumas at +9.5, and I expect them to push Ireland all the way in Dublin.
Rather than choosing between the two, I'm going to combine them in a handicap double. Both sides are capable of winning outright, but the points start gives us a little more protection in what I expect to be two closely contested matches.
I'll also have a small nibble on Argentina and Australia to win their respective matches outright.
If Argentina should fail rest assured I will be flying into the Aussies on Sunday.
Bet: 2 units (1–5), Argentina +9.5 points (0.93/1) and Australia +8.5 points (0.87/1) handicap double at 2.6/1 at WSB
Bet: 0.5 unit (1-5) Argentina 2.75/1 and Australia 2.5/1 match-winner double, at 12.13/1 at WSB
Other Highlights on Goodforthegame
São Paulo Grand Prix
Formula 1 heads to Brazil this weekend, with the São Paulo Grand Prix taking place on Sunday. Click here for the betting preview, courtesy of World Sports Betting.
Carling Knockout Quarterfinals
Locally, there are three remaining Carling Knockout quarterfinals taking place this weekend. Click here for Chris's tips on all three matches.
UFC Fight Night
There's also UFC Fight Night action in Las Vegas this weekend. Click here for the betting preview and here for the latest odds at WSB.
Enjoy the rugby and break a leg with your bets!
Cheers,
BG